CEO: Oct. Crash still on the way

Adding to the credence and growing calls for a potential financial disaster this month, one financial CEO says a Wall Street crash is still in the making.

Enzio von Pfeil, chief executive officer of EconomicClock.com, says that stupid money is back into the market and that persistent unemployment will cause a wave of declining sales outlooks which will cascade through the market and cause it to crash later this month.

To me, the most poignant statement he made is this:

"There's going to be quite a bit of strong downward earnings revisions going forward, especially the outlook for 2010. And that's simply because the economic clock, of which we tell the economic time, suggests that the excess supply of goods (rising unemployment) is here to stay and you can't keep on making profits if unemployment keeps rising," he told CNBC.

The frightening thing is that unemployment is "here to stay." Welcome to the new norm. My guess is that official unemployment estimates will stagnate around 12-14%, but the real total will be 20-25%, taking into account workers willing to work for much less in terms of both hours and salary.

Of all the predictions made on ATS over the years, our collective calls about the economy have been, for the most part, spot on. I know quite a few here who have highlighted very telling predictions that have come to pass. In the end, we as a people have learned that we cannot continue to spend our way into a "recovery." Our leaders just don't get that message. Nor will they, it seems, until we're all farming our own food and sewing our own clothes.

Not sure if I should say this, but I'm more and more welcoming the idea of a revolution in this country. I'm really getting pissed off.

reply to post by behindthescenes
So nothing new here. It seems the prediction about October 25-27 for the great collapse is still valid and likely possible. Excellent info. Thanks.

Now is this really actually good or bad.

I mean what can get worse, I dont have a hourly day by day job
just little side jobs here and there to keep it all alive.
will this start the revoultion? throw the PTB out of office.
Im ready for whatever comes

but honestly ive heard this big collapse of 2009 since last year but the months change. Now i cant put that in with the money there throwing at it to put it off.

I dont know

Well, the S&P climbed over 10k yesterday which means that they have, in fact, sucked the suckers back into the market. Time to shear the sheep or as they say on Wall Street, it's time to take profits.

Will it crash the market? Who knows but at some point the ether is going to wear off and the suckers are finally going to figure out that the game's rigged. When they roll into a ball to try and protect what little they have left the only thing left to hold up the market will be the institutional traders and they won't be there long.

Another crash may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. If Wall Street collapses I fear the economy goes with it, I mean after all, we've tied the two together as a way to keep a gun to Americas head- let my bank belly up and I take the economy with me.

A crash this close to Christmas spells retail doom and the death spiral goes into overdrive. Many retailers clawed to hang on and see if a bang up Christmas season would save their bacon in 09. If it goes flop the wave of commercial bankruptcies the first and second quarters of 2010 will dazzle the imagination. Look for unemployment to head towards 30% at the same time the derivatives market (where a lot of the commercial real estate paper is held) explodes. Add another 8-12 million jobs gone that aren't coming back again.

With almost no tax base left to support government borrowing the government comes to a standstill. No gubment cheese so the ghettos ignite and martial law is declared.

Oh my, how to take John Q.'s mind off the fact that he's homeless, his kids are starving and there's no hope in sight...I know, lets have a world war.

God help us.

Well, the S&P climbed over 10k yesterday which means that they have, in fact, sucked the suckers back into the market. Time to shear the sheep or as they say on Wall Street, it's time to take profits.

Will it crash the market? Who knows but at some point the ether is going to wear off and the suckers are finally going to figure out that the game's rigged. When they roll into a ball to try and protect what little they have left the only thing left to hold up the market will be the institutional traders and they won't be there long.

Another crash may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. If Wall Street collapses I fear the economy goes with it, I mean after all, we've tied the two together as a way to keep a gun to Americas head- let my bank belly up and I take the economy with me.

A crash this close to Christmas spells retail doom and the death spiral goes into overdrive. Many retailers clawed to hang on and see if a bang up Christmas season would save their bacon in 09. If it goes flop the wave of commercial bankruptcies the first and second quarters of 2010 will dazzle the imagination. Look for unemployment to head towards 30% at the same time the derivatives market (where a lot of the commercial real estate paper is held) explodes. Add another 8-12 million jobs gone that aren't coming back again.

With almost no tax base left to support government borrowing the government comes to a standstill. No gubment cheese so the ghettos ignite and martial law is declared.

Oh my, how to take John Q.'s mind off the fact that he's homeless, his kids are starving and there's no hope in sight...I know, lets have a world war.

God help us.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

thought thatd be a good related thread. posted today as well... most disturbing numbers

During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter -- whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, worst three months of all time

Ive pulled my money out of the stock market, but so far its doing great in October. Im sitting here itching to put it back, but will wait until October passes just in case.

Not sure why I bother though considering I actually believe we have about 2 years until most of our civilization gets rebooted. But maybe Im wrong.


[edit on 15-10-2009 by Copernicus]

if you want to park your money and recieve a decent rate 5% to 10%...there are websites that show electric and power companies that are stable because of having a monopoly in that area and the fact that everyone needs gas and electricity. these company stocks don't go up or down much...but there are some that have paid that good of a dividend rate for decades.

[edit on 15-10-2009 by jimmyx]

Well - I am watching this process like a hawk and fairly well informed, considering I exist purely by stealing .. er I mean trading.

The liquidity poured into the financial sector by govt has done nothing, there are few credit worthy customers to lend to - so the banks have speculated on the stock market with that money - raising the markets well above a justifiable level considering earnings potential. The aura of optimism in the market has been spurred by the financial sectors success - this is meaningless to the overall economy - so earnings disappointment in all sectors is just around the corner.

The report on earnings will certainly drive some investment money out of the market, and possibly precipitate a crash - however I think it will be Fed itself which precipitates the crash by increasing interest rates.

An unexpected increase in interest rates from the Fed will hit the current $US carry trade - and those positions are usually stupidly leveraged. Also it will immediately stunt business activity - and dry up even the meager flow of credit that is occurring.

The effect on the stock market of an unexpected move in US interest rates will almost certainly precipitate a stock market crash - of course the Fed will claim that such a result was entirely unexpected, and they will come up with some excuse for doing the unthinkably stupid.

Really - they should threaten to increase interest rates - a bit at some future time - to allow the liquidity to seep out of the market at an orderly pace - their rhetoric indicates their intention is to be sudden and aggressive - so if you are of a nervous disposition and in the market - well, that describes all investors at the moment - they are going to bail out fast.

A major crash in the market is probably going to rally the dollar, and drive gold and silver down - so leveraged precious metals positions should be watchful as well as stock holders.

On the other hand - rumors of banking holidays should give people thought if they intend to withdraw from the market - because dollars instead might be devalued - although that seems unlikely in the next few weeks, it really must occur soon.

If your a trader - then here's my take on it.

Use a 75/25 ratio of short and long positions about now, in stocks and precious metals - try and maintain that ratio but take advantage of volatility but don't get too far off that position - if there is a sudden fall - obviously profit take at every support level. Make sure you keep your long position stop losses up to date.

I wouldnt be backing a rally in the dollar at this stage - it is actually a strong possibility - but the other possibility is there might be a devaluation and bank holiday - and that would be catastrophic - so not worth the risk. Stocks and commodities are far safer.

If you want pure safety - get bullion - physical and unleveraged. It will fall, but it will recover quickly and surpass previous highs in a fairly short time frame.

[edit on 15-10-2009 by Amagnon]

reply to post by behindthescenes


Ahh, fresh doom. I just woke up, a cup of hot coffee, Fluffy Bacuda on my lap (biting me of coarse, he's violent), and fresh doom. Ahh, thank you. Star and flag and all naughty things for you....


plucky

[edit on 15-10-2009 by pluckynoonez]

Someone PLEASE answer this one little question:

If the stock market crashes like you people are predicting, then your dollars will be worthless. So what is the difference between keeping your money in the stock market and taking it out? Leave it in. A crash is not likely anyway. I have come to learn the people on this site are irrational. They not only consider every prediction, but actually expect it to come to pass.

reply to post by Longtimegone

Stock market crash and the dollar's value are not necessarily connected. The dollar's demise has everything to do with our national debt.

But to your point, you're right. The question is what can you "invest" in that would be worth something in a new reality. Commodities like oil and metals will always be in demand, hence they tend to be the best hedges in times like these.

Originally posted by Longtimegone
Someone PLEASE answer this one little question:

If the stock market crashes like you people are predicting, then your dollars will be worthless. So what is the difference between keeping your money in the stock market and taking it out? Leave it in. A crash is not likely anyway. I have come to learn the people on this site are irrational. They not only consider every prediction, but actually expect it to come to pass.

Just 2 weeks left until we find out. Perhaps nothing happens. Perhaps it does.

I dont necessarily believe it will happen, Im just taking it into account instead of ignoring it.

reply to post by behindthescenes


I follow this mans line of thought.. there is not enough new cash at the Consumption level to warrent the rise in stock prices. Depending on how Christmas turns out, the market WILL collapse, or continue on it's merry way. Personally, I see no possible way sales earnings to post positive growth.. there are literally millions more unemployed right now than last year.. there is not enough Consumption .. If Christmas Fails, which imo it will, by February you will see true economic melt down. That's my prediction anyways. It wouldn't be surprising to me either to see a sell off moving into the 4th Q, simply because the Stocks are over priced atm, but you can't really see which way the economy is moving until Christmas.

Quite simply.. if Christmas fails this year... we are in it for the long haul... hundreds of thousands will be laid off every month in relation to last Feb .. and we will know for certain we are in a Depression.

On the flip side, it Christmas is GOOD, then we will see true economic recovery for a short period of time, then depending on how the Fed manages the economy, we could see a new period of high inflation relative to the 1970's and early 80's.

reply to post by behindthescenes


This guy is putting his credibility on the line in short ordar as the month is half over. He is no slouch either:

seekingalpha.com...

Enzio von Pfeil (www.enziosclock.com...) has been an investment economist all of his professional life. Having studied under Nobel Laureate Friedrich von Hayek in Freiburg, Germany, he got his PhD in economics and then joined some of the major banks in their day: Morgan Guaranty, Schroders and Warburgs. He was Chief Regional Economist for major stock brokerages in Hong Kong since 1990, where he is happily married. Author of books and thousands of research notes, he is a regular guest of Bloomberg-UK and Bloomberg-Germany, and is invited frequently to CNBC and other channels. His focus always has been on how to make money out of economics, and his application is real: he now lives off his own investments. He founded Enzio's Clock (www.enziosclock.com...) in November 2000 with the objective to help his subscribers profit from cycles through rigorous application of his proprietary Economic Clock.

CEO of economicclock.com??

Well CEO of Greenbicman.com says otherwise, we both have the same level of credence IMO

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
CEO of economicclock.com??

Well CEO of Greenbicman.com says otherwise, we both have the same level of credence IMO

Didn't know you held a Ph.D in investments

reply to post by muse7


Have you seen Steve Quayles warning?



www.stevequayle.com...

reply to post by muse7


didnt know you could get your phd in investments

reply to post by Sharrow


Where are you getting your information from? So far the big names have been destroying the numbers so far this Q3. You are hearing garbage information.