Very Scary End Of The World Article, page 22
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reply posted on 28-5-2004 @ 03:59 AM by _ARMac_
As my precious post are we talking aboit ITOKAWA asteroid?

I wote:wait you lost me a bit we are talking of the "25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36)" asteroid right?

According to NASA's "Ephemeris generator" it will miss us for 0.0129105546 AU (Astronomical Units) or for 5 LS (lunar distance)

on date 26th or 27th June 2004.

1 AU = 149,597,871 kilometers
1 LD = 384,401 kilometers
1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU

Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC APmag r rdot delta deldot S-T-O Cnst

2004-Jun-26 20:00 06 05 29.07 -56 17 28.5 13.05 1.0143442660 5.22842 0.0128971142 0.00154 99.5714 Pic

Link:
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

So the closes distance from earth is 0.0128971142 AU


another site (Japanese) also brings up this facts:

ITOKAWA will gradually close to earth and, on June 26, 2004, it will be closest to earth with distance of 0.013AU (about 1.95 million km). But, unfortunately, it will be then located at the south hemisphere. It is estimated that the asteroid will become about twelfth magnitude (about 1,500 times brighter compared to the present).


Link: www.isas.ac.jp...

Here are the pics: echo.jpl.nasa.gov...

i mean it will miss us for about 900.000 kilometers, even if that is a lie quarter of that number is 200.000 thats pretty far .......


reply posted on 28-5-2004 @ 09:19 AM by Whiskey Jack
Originally posted by NothingMakesSense
(a lot of info about the projected impact deleted for brevity)


A couple nitpicks about the data you used. First the speed of the supposed incoming objects was given in miles per hour (in the post on page 4 or so) not kilometers per second. Making the conversion, it should be approximately 100km/s, not 222000km/s

Second, the density you used (again taken directly from the aforementioned post on page 4-ish) was the lb/ft^3, adjusting to km/m^3 you get close enough to 1500 to use the porous rock pre-set on the simulator. (Close enough for "will-my-house-be-standing calculations", if you're an astronomy grad student you'd probably better have it calculated to the 23rd decimal just to be safe )

With those adjustments, it's slightly less cataclysmic. Not fun, but a little better:

Impact Effects
Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins
Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 1000.00 km = 621.00 miles
Projectile Diameter: 1818.55 m = 5964.86 ft = 1.13 miles
Projectile Density: 1500 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 99.82 km/s = 61.99 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 1500 kg/m3
Target Type: Competent Rock or saturated soil
Energy:
2.35 x 1022 Joules = 5.62 x 106 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 1.7 x 107years
Crater Size:
What does this mean?



Transient Crater Diameter: 34.59 km = 21.48 miles
Final Crater Diameter: 55.15 km = 34.25 miles
The crater formed is a complex crater.
Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?



The fireball is below the horizon. There is no direct thermal radiation.
Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?


The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 200.0 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 9.1
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 1000 km:


III. Felt indoors. Hanging objects swing. Vibration like passing of light trucks. Duration estimated. may not be recognized as an earthquake.

IV. Hanging objects swing. Vibration like passing of heavy trucks; or sensation of a jolt like a heavy ball striking the walls. Standing motor cars rock. Windows, dishes, doors rattle. Glasses clink. Crockery clashes. In the upper range of IV wooden walls and frame creak.

Ejecta:
What does this mean?


The ejecta will arrive approximately 494.4 seconds after the impact.
Average Ejecta Thickness: 1.5 cm = 0.59 inches
Mean Fragment Diameter: 820 micrometers = 32.29 1/1000 of an inch

Air Blast:
What does this mean?


The air blast will arrive at approximately 3333.3 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 28220.4 Pa = 0.2822 bars = 4.0073 psi
Max wind velocity: 54.3 m/s = 121.4 mph
Sound Intensity: 89 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:


Glass windows will shatter.

About 30 percent of trees blown down; remainder have some branches and leaves blown off.

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