Originally posted by dickbar
to be fair, thr BDIY turned around the last week or so and broke out of it's downtrend... i'm not a global economy bull at all but technically this
video is out of date now...
They are calling this picture 'consumer savings rate'. I'm not really sure why. A guess: As less people buy 10 year treasury notes, the fed must
(In theory) raise interest rates to lure in more buyers (Or fed supporters) of the debt. So as interest rates rise people save less and spend more on
consumer goods?
Baltic Dry Index compared to ten year bond rates, showing an amazingly strong lagging correlation. (Credit TheStreet.com)
Simons comes to the conclusion that the BDIY index does an excellent job of following 10-year interest rates on about a 1 year lag. At least this was
the case right up until 2002, when the two diverged.
financewonk.blogspot.com...
So if the BDIY corrolates to 10 year notes I guess it's direction depends on which direction you think 10 year notes will move.
forecasts.org...
Reguardless there are still more empty ships out there than full ones. It looks like the BDIY crashed last year and it just took some time to move the
excess world inventory out of the factories and off the docks. It will take time to fill up the ships again. There are new ships still being launched,
adding to the excess capacity, that were ordered a long time ago.
[edit on 13-10-2009 by In nothing we trust]
