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NASA refine asteroid Apophis' path towards Earth - world (probably) won't now end in 2036

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posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 06:52 AM
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Looks like all those books planned to be published in 2013 saying how Nostradamus, Mother Shipton, the Bible, Zeta Reticulians and the bloke you met in the pub last week all predicted the world will end in 2029 and/or 2036 may have to be re-written .....


Source

"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."

~ ~ ~

Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 29,450 kilometers (18,300 miles) above Earth's surface.



Mind, a 1 in 4 million chance of impact is still better odds than of me winning the lottery (if I ever entered it!) and I'm sure the coincidence of both by-passes occuring on April 13th will still help spawn plenty of pulp reading material.....




posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 06:55 AM
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I would focus on 2010 and 2011 if I were you.



posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 08:31 AM
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Originally posted by Copernicus

I would focus on 2010 and 2011 if I were you.




I agree, I have forgotten all about Apophis. I will be surprised if WWIII doesn't break out by year's end. I doubt we'll care even a little about this asteroid by the time we reach that point. I think the world will be in shambles by then / is already.



posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 09:39 AM
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DAMN!!! 18,300 miles above earth's surface? Thast one CLOSE SHAVE! Communication satellites typically orbit 22,000 miles out. The moon is averaged, 250,000 miles form earth. The space shuttle, typically orbits about 400 miles above earth. 18,300 is one close call! Remember, earth has gravity* and what does gravity do? Captures and/or pull objects in. of course, the space shuttle moves at like 17,000 MPH so ive read. It would come crashing into earths atmoshpere, burning up, if it wasnt for thrusters* Asteroids dont have thrusters*
I remember back in 1989...a small object came very close to earth! i do not rememebr th exact distance, but it was found under radar, so to speak. same thing in 1991...only a few meters in diameter, but still...ya know?



posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 09:40 AM
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Or it could simply mean were screwed for impact* and false info is coming out so people dont riot, set buildings oon fire, do as they want since they know/think the end is coming all that.. we'll jsut have to wait n see



posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 09:43 AM
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according to your source it was a 4 in a million chance, not 1 in 4 million. so basically it went from 1 in 45,000 to 1 in 250,000



posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 10:40 AM
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reply to post by ziggy1706
 


Earth's gravity is already factored into the predictions. In fact, one must factor in the gravity of every planet in order to make anything approaching an accurate prediction.



posted on Oct, 10 2009 @ 03:16 PM
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Originally posted by Le Colonel
according to your source it was a 4 in a million chance, not 1 in 4 million. so basically it went from 1 in 45,000 to 1 in 250,000



Quite right, My error ...

Personally I've been looking forward to the impact, reckoning that as I'll be 70 in 2036 it'll be fun to see it before I die ... Oh well.



posted on Oct, 11 2009 @ 11:22 PM
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reply to post by Essan
 



Originally posted by Essan

Personally I've been looking forward to the impact, reckoning that as I'll be 70 in 2036 it'll be fun to see it before I die ... Oh well.


That's what I love about nihilism... it's so compassionate hehe

Hey, don't give up on 2012 yet! There is still hope



posted on Oct, 11 2009 @ 11:27 PM
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who knows, by 2036 the world may be so jacked up, an asteroid would have been OUR best best!!!



posted on Oct, 12 2009 @ 05:53 PM
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reply to post by Codazzle
 


Haha I liked that.

Am I the only one who noticed that the original poster said, "...the world will end in 2029 and/or 2036..." and thought, How can the world end in 2029 AND 2036?




posted on Oct, 13 2009 @ 04:41 AM
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Originally posted by Essan
Looks like all those books planned to be published in 2013 saying how Nostradamus, Mother Shipton, the Bible, Zeta Reticulians and the bloke you met in the pub last week all predicted the world will end in 2029 and/or 2036 may have to be re-written .....


Source

"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."

~ ~ ~

Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 29,450 kilometers (18,300 miles) above Earth's surface.



Mind, a 1 in 4 million chance of impact is still better odds than of me winning the lottery (if I ever entered it!) and I'm sure the coincidence of both by-passes occuring on April 13th will still help spawn plenty of pulp reading material.....


Don't forget about Asteroid 1950 DA. granted, it's not predicted to impact until 2880, it poses a threat to all existence as we know it (or however existence is at that time lol).

this is taking into consideration we haven't destroyed our own habitat already...

Source



Detection of A Potential Hazard

When high-precision radar meaurements were included in a new orbit solution, a potentially very close approach to the Earth on March 16, 2880 was discovered to exist. Analysis performed by Giorgini et al. and reported in the April 5, 2002 edition of the journal Science ("Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter With Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction") determined the impact probability as being at most 1 in 300 and probably even more remote, based on what is known about the asteroid so far. At its greatest, this could represent a risk 50% greater than that of the average background hazard due to all other asteroids from the present era through 2880, as defined by the Palermo Technical Scale (PTS value = +0.17). 1950 DA is the only known asteroid whose hazard could be above the background level.

Understanding the Risk

However, these are maximum values. The study indicates the collision probability for 1950 DA is best described as being in the range 0 to 0.33%. The upper limit could increase or decrease as we learn more about the asteroid in the years ahead.

Expressing the risk as an interval is necessary because not enough is known about the physical properties of the asteroid. For example, radar data suggests two possible directions for the asteroid's spin pole. If one pole is correct, solar radiation acceleration could significantly cancel thermal emission acceleration. Collision probability would then be close to the maximum 0.33%. If the spin pole is instead near the other possible solution, there would be little chance of collision. There are other factors also.

The situation is similar to knowing you have a coin that is biased so one side will land up 80% of the time -- but you don't know which side. You can only say that when you flip the coin, the chance of heads is 80% or 20%




posted on Oct, 13 2009 @ 05:22 AM
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Well if their calculations are accurate, it looks like we can kiss the moon goodbye. This is almost as bad as a direct hit.

-Al



posted on Oct, 13 2009 @ 05:34 AM
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reply to post by AlBeMet
 



which one? Apophis or 1950 DA? you are right, either way, if one of them impacted the moon, it would destroy it, causing fragments from the moon much larger than the asteroid itself to impact the earth. even if the fragments didn't impact earth, the loss of the moon itself would definitely not be good for the planet...



posted on Oct, 13 2009 @ 10:01 AM
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Originally posted by rugbyguitargod
reply to post by AlBeMet
 


which one? Apophis or
? you are right, either way, if one of them impacted the moon, it would destroy it, causing fragments from the moon much larger than the asteroid itself to impact the earth.


Neither are big enough to have much serious impact to the Moon, let alone the Earth. They certainly would not break the Moon up.

1950DA is the larger of the two and about 1km wide. Apophis is about 300m in diameter. The Moon is 3,474km across......

Yes, an impact on either Earth or the Moon will result in rather a big crater - but many much larger asteroids have hit both Earth and Moon in the past (the Chicxulub impactor is estimated at around 10km wide). Neither would be an Extinct Level Event either - life as we know it would continue though depending on where the impact occurred some high loss of life would be likely (maybe in the millions) and we might see the climate affected for a few years afterwards.



posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 01:41 AM
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reply to post by Essan
 


echo.jpl.nasa.gov...

then why would NASA's Near Earth Object Program state that the energy released upon the impact of 1950 DA with the earth would cause effects to the biosphere and climate 'devastating to human civilization'?

to me, 'devastating to human civilization' means curtains...



posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 01:52 AM
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About the 1950 DA impact, why even worry about an impact that's not due for almost 900 years?

First off, since the Apophis calculation went from being 1:45000 to 1:250000 and its only about 25 years away, who's to say they won't recalculate it from 1:300 to 1:1billion by the time 2880 rolls around.
And second, assuming we preserve our way of life and scientific achievements until then, we'll PROBABLY have some way of destroying it before it gets remotely close to our planet (or any other planet we might colonize by then
)



posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 02:24 AM
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I agree that an asteroid only 18,300 miles above earth's surface is extremely close. This is like a golf ball sitting on the edge of the hole on the green and if it falls in, we're in deep. Don't sneeze and let's hope the asteroid doesn't break apart for some reason or have other objects with it that could level a city or worse. If this object does have a close encounter with the Earth coming up sooner than the closer encounter later, I am wondering what are the odds that gravitational stresses could break it apart? This would be worse because then it might be spread out in large chunks that would make it difficult to miss in the future.



posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 03:01 AM
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reply to post by orionthehunter
 


hmm... i never thought about it that way. then again, if gravitational forces broke it apart, it could possibly break into pieces small enough where most of it could burn up in the atmosphere. granted, there would still be massive chunks, but it would minimalize the catastrophic effects (to some degree).

then again, i am no astrophysicist, so all of that is based highy upon speculation...


[edit on 14-10-2009 by rugbyguitargod]



posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 03:24 AM
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Originally posted by shade454
About the 1950 DA impact, why even worry about an impact that's not due for almost 900 years?

First off, since the Apophis calculation went from being 1:45000 to 1:250000 and its only about 25 years away, who's to say they won't recalculate it from 1:300 to 1:1billion by the time 2880 rolls around.


Well then who is to say they won't recalculate it to a 1:4 chance?



And second, assuming we preserve our way of life and scientific achievements until then, we'll PROBABLY have some way of destroying it before it gets remotely close to our planet (or any other planet we might colonize by then
)


Let's be honest, we'll probably destroy ourselves before we ever approach destroying an incoming meteor or comet which is large enough to destroy us.

Maybe I am wrong, and I remember hearing that someone in Britain was creating just such a device for just such an occasion. Wish I remembered more so I could find a link. It was fairly recent.


Originally posted by Schmidt1989
reply to post by Codazzle
 


Haha I liked that.

Am I the only one who noticed that the original poster said, "...the world will end in 2029 and/or 2036..." and thought, How can the world end in 2029 AND 2036?



I too can be anal about semantics. I know your secret shame


I also hate it when I see something like "1 Lamp(s)"

What do you mean "1 Lamp(S)!?" Arg!

But I just tell myself, "nobody is doing this to you on purpose. Don't get enraged and destroy Tokyo again."

Then I return to the sea while roaring and spitting atomic lasers.

[edit on 14-10-2009 by BaronVonGodzilla]



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