reply to post by Phage
Mmm very true but wrong lol.
You are right indeed Phage that many people use numbers and figures and Stats to create patterns where they cant really be extrapolated from the data
(due to Chaos, lack of sufficient data range sets, and also natural variabilities in the manifestations of such events, as well as as you explain
rightly the lots of dice rolling, or to put it differantly the very complex systems and dynamics and what feeds into them in these events)
HOWEVER it could also be stated from the information you show that infact there is a more than statistically significant (the important thing lol)
increase in Events of Mag 7+ in numbers per year, the Mean from the chart is obviously and blatantly rising.
When events of Mag 7 + of over 10 a year a looked at in the data set, over the last 15 years there has only been 2 years without such a number or
Also one of the inputs to that is this year which has not ended, and as we have seen 3 or 4 over that Mag seems to have happened in just 24 hours
(again very statistically significant and a deviation from the norm in locations of earthquake, it certainly seems to be Cluster and one of a lot of
power and untold as yet outcome) so the chart should show this year on 11 now, meaning JUST ONCE in the last 15 years just one year has had events of
below Mag 7 on a frequency of below 10.
If we look at the data avaialable (it is hard to source before 1973 USGS does not access this on the web for worldwide events, Library or intranet
access is required, so I cant be bothered to do this now) for the previous 17 years back to 1973 there are 5 yeras with just 10 or below such events,
so even without the three years previous to 1973 it is very plain to see this is indeed a pattern or a rising mean of frequency of events of Mag 7 or
If we then use the data you provided again to look at in a similair way the amount of events of Mag 7 or higher in a year based Over 15 events a year,
again it is very significant and obvious... 8 such years in the last 20, and for the previous 17 years to that just 2.
Just to say, you are right in being cautious of most of the bunk out there using pseudo science and skeying of numbers to create patterns and theories
where they dont exist, and to highlight the importance of the factors and complex nature, limited data sets, and understanding for many of the bogus
fear mongering out there....
However knocking or debunking theories or information with theories or information that itself shows the opposite to what you say
There is no Pattern
is wrong, as clearly it is known and understood that statistical significance is a pattern, and with such small amounts each year say 7 events
compared to 20 events per year, as in the data set we are looking at there is a huge, marked and not just significant but big yellow elephant in the
living room imho. However if such an elephant has often sat in the living room in earths avaerage and normal history is unknown as you point
Just that when a Debunker/Skeptic/Scientist uses information and misenterprets it to argue against such use of data by those who are the "conspiracy
Theorists", well the truth is being muddied beyond any clarity and just positions being argued by both sides.
To add I find 4 such events in a swarm in this area not the norm and certainly something to keep a very close eye on indeed, something is obviously
happening there beyond what we normally experience in Earthquake monitoring, and in the big picture of the earths past it may be quite normal, but
also be a trigger for a very large event indeed, so both sides should be cautious and admit we dont know.
Edit to add
reply to post by Hx3_1963
No it IS NOT a Caldera which is formed by a "Plume" of molten rock directly from the deep parts of the earths interior, and usually under soft rock,
The area is though on a Plate Boundary, this is the cause of the earthquakes, the cause of the creation of the Islands themselves as along plate
boundaries you do get Volcanoes (which in this case are not the same as caldera, there is no huge plate boundary under yellowstton for example just a
large well huge volcanic Plume) which due to the plate boundary allows Magma to come close to the surface.
The Fiji islands were created by volcanism, like hawaii and indeed maybe a new island volcano will form here.
[edit on 8-10-2009 by MischeviousElf]