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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by cpdaman
its based on a mean pe ratio of 18 which is actually mid to in the lower range for a bull rally - thats why pe's should run a bit higher, so stall a bit on the earnings while prices move higher
[edit on 30-9-2009 by GreenBicMan]
The National Retail Federation threw some cold water on the holiday:
WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The National Retail Federation today released its 2009 holiday forecast, projecting holiday retail industry sales to decline one percent this year to $437.6 billion.* While this number falls significantly below the ten-year average of 3.39 percent holiday season growth, the decline is not expected to be as dramatic as last year’s 3.4 percent drop in holiday retail sales nor as severe as the 3.0 percent decline in annual retail industry sales expected for all of 2009.**
No, really? Gee, who saw this coming?
On the Pearl River Delta, China's major export base, orders at many shoemakers were already low as the situation has gone from bad to worse. According to China Business News, a European customer's sudden cancellation of an order for original high-end shoes at an unnamed company might cause that company's bankruptcy as it has already bought materials and entered production.
And what foreshadowed this report? Why this Ticker and the article that spawned it.....
Remember, this is the time when Christmas goods are on the way. You can't order something from China, have it produced, and then have it sent in a ship in a week. Uh uh. Those goods have been ordered now, they are in the pipeline for delivery now, or they're not coming.
They're not coming.
Flat to down 1% is insanely optimistic folks.
Our data seems to confirm the theories that are expressed by Terence McKenna, as well as Mr. Calleman, and Mr. Lungold in their own ways because we do appear to see, as George puts it, waves of increasing pressure, and as the wave passes you into a kind of stabilized equilibrium for a brief period of time, and then this is what we're calling the 'building of emotional tension' and 'release of emotional tension' periods. So as we go forward in time, the pressures will get quite severe...
The initial emotional parameters I set seemed to have been altered, and I've had to constantly adjust the data, which has led me to the conclusion that Terence McKenna is right, that time is fractal, and now I think that there may be an actual physical or quantum reason for this...
...and it's really strange when you start to look at some of the work of Calleman and McKenna how they describe the Eschaton, the 'end of time' so to speak, and the Meso-American calendar how they also discuss the compression of events within these periods as we go forward - and it's really woo-woo spooky that it's all lining up this way at the same time we see these people reacting as predicted.
Originally posted by Evasius
...If you would like I can provide more links if you want to research the GCP or Timewave further...
The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.
Government Violates The Citizens (Again)
This is going to be an ongoing series, I suspect - tracking government abuse of the citizenry via debt-shifting.
What am I referring to? Simple: Back-door bailouts of banks and industry (notably the auto industry) through farcical programs that con the citizens of the nation to take on unsustainable debt, thereby transferring what should be a corporate or bank failure to into a whole bunch of personal bankruptcies.
There are two programs in particular that exemplify this attempt; "cash for clunkers" and the various machinations in the housing space, including the insanely loose FHA credit procedures.
Cash for Clunkers violated two basic premises: It destroyed perfectly good capital assets (older cars that were in good running condition; indeed, it required 12 months of continual insurance coverage and registration - that is, proof of being in good running order for the past year - to qualify!) and replaced them with a vehicle that had a presumed debt load on it.
Now we find out that indeed (as I have long suspected) the government's insane FHA approvals of patently unsustainable loans was an intentional act:
Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that the defaults were, in essence, worth it.
“I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”
Got that? It's a policy to intentionally bankrupt people so as to allow banks who have made bad mortgages a chance to avoid their own bankruptcy.
Dennis Kneale, Larry Kudlow, hell, name a "mouthpiece" on ToutTV or in the sell-side of Fraud Street and you'll find someone claiming that "the recession is over."
But if it is, how can this be true?
Lockyer’s spoke before Controller John Chiang said state general fund revenue fell $1.1 billion below estimates during the first three months of the fiscal year that began July 1.
Let's boil this down a bit: Sales tax revenues came in at $99.8 million, or 4.5% lower than expected.
Income tax revenues were also off big, but remember that income taxes are (usually) progressive, so a loss in income translates into a larger drop in tax revenues (as an aside this, my friends, is why "tax the rich" only works when the rich are getting richer - when they start to get poorer as a consequence of your redistribution schemes and move down the tax ladder, your income tax receipts collapse!) while sales taxes are a straight percentage of sales, often with the only exception that would skew on an income basis being food.
This strongly implies that California saw gross consumer sales off about 4.5% from where they expected; this, of course, raises the question "what was expected?"
We have a regulatory environment where The Federal Government has intentionally left out of the Federal Legal code strictures on operating a bank while insolvent, when many states explicitly define such an act as a felony, thereby giving The Federal Government cover in allowing banks to operate long enough to generate 20, 30, 40 and even 50% losses as measured against their asset base before being closed. To date nobody has been criminally charged in relationship to these events.
We have banks that are intentionally sitting on "NODs" (Notices of Default) and foreclosure actions, with many people in bubble areas not having made a payment in more than a year. There are those who view this sort of thing as "good" for the economy (since those individuals continue to spend in the local economy instead of being evicted.) Banks are doing this to avoid having to take the "mark" on the defaulted asset; by refusing to recognize the current value of those assets as the recovery value and instead holding the note at "par" or near to it, they effectively cook their books and appear healthier than they are. Government is allowing this and claiming that it is "for the good of the economy" to keep these blown-up banks in business but along with the default on the mortgage comes a default on the impound account (if there is one) which means state and local governments are not receiving their property tax revenues.
We also have banks that have homes that have either "jingle mailed" or otherwise been left empty, and the banks are refusing to sell these properties off for the same reason - maintenance of these "assets" at unrealistic values on the books of these firms. This also results in the property tax bills not being paid as there is nobody living in these homes and nobody making the payments to state and local governments.
It has become clear during the last two years that despite the royal screwing that is imposed on state and local governments as a direct consequence of these actions Federal regulators, lawmakers and administration officials will not step in and put a stop to it, as they are fully bought and paid for by the financial industry.
I don't know if this is going to happen ka-blam, or if the slide is just going to speed up a whole lot more, or what ever.
All I know is that the situation is going to be a hell lot worse before it gets better...