Here comes an other one... [Indonesian earthquake calculated, more to come!!]

More accurate would be..

Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 22:42:00 UTC

mag 7.7

5.0°N, 105.0°W or 5.0°S, 74.0°E

Now it will probably head for the Indian plate and again disperse around Indonesia with 1 major shock or a few minor ones (between 5 and 6).

If it goes towards the Pacific plate then the Cocos plate is bound to get a bang!!

We'll see

Peace

Philippines just had a 6.1

Edited

[edit on 28/1/2010 by OzWeatherman]

Originally posted by OzWeatherman
Wow!

Who knew....several earthquakes in the most earthquake prone region of the world

Sorry couldn't resist.

Next time please try a little harder resisting, would you?

But seriously, earthquakes and volcanic tremors happen there every day

I can see why they made you the Forum Subject Matter Expert.

You are a meteorologist, if i remember correctly. If i look out my window i can see what the weather is, so why are you trying to tell people what kind of weather it will be like in three days....??

If you predict, based on models and charts, that it is going to rain.What do you do when people say:" But seriously, rain and wind happen there every day"......??

If you would take the effort of reading the entire thread you would have noticed that preceding several big quakes, during relatively quiet periods, i was posting in this thread about upcoming events.

Agreed, i didn't get them dead on...

posted on 29/9/2009 @ 11:36 UTC

Magnitude >7.0, within the time frame of 2-5 October 2009.....now as for the coordinates, i will try and narrow it down a bit using only logic reasoning. Wait for it....................it's gonna hit near Indonesia!!!

USGS: Tuesday, September 29, 2009 at 17:48:10 UTC Magnitude 8.1 - SAMOA ISLANDS REGION

USGS: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 10:16:09 UTC Magnitude 7.5 - SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

.....................

posted on 30/9/2009 @ 12:51 UTC

Charts are no good anymore but since the recent Sumatra quake i'm still convinced that south America is next in line with a M6.0 or bigger

USGS: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 19:03:16 UTC Magnitude 5.9 - LA PAZ, BOLIVIA REGION

and then on to the north-American west coast......

USGS: 2009 Olancha, CA Earthquake Sequence, Thursday, October 01, 2009 at 10:01:23 UTC

.....................

posted on 4/1/2010 @ 07:37 UTC

If this "cycle" will bring us an other big shake then i think the Mid Atlantic ridge is due for an overhaul on the 40th parallel north, around 30 degrees west....

USGS:Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 21:53:09 UTC Magnitude 7.0 Location 18.451°N, 72.445°W (Haiti quake)

.....................

posted on 27/1/2010 @ 11:50

9 degrees south, 92 degrees west. Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 12:00:00 UTC. Magnitude 7,3 (15:50 I set the timetable to 20:35)

USGS: Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 18:49:33 UTC Magnitude 6.1 Location 13.684°N, 125.440°E

USGS: Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 19:00:33 UTC Magnitude 5.1 Location 7.126°S, 125.108°E

.....................

posted on 28/1/2010 @ 21:18 UTC

Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 22:42:00 UTC mag 7.7 5.0°N, 105.0°W or 5.0°S, 74.0°E. Now it will probably head for the Indian plate and
again disperse around Indonesia with 1 major shock or a few minor ones. If it goes towards the Pacific plate then the Cocos plate is bound to
get a bang!! (between 5 and 6).

USGS: Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 04:01:20 UTC Magnitude 5.0 - SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA

USGS: Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 04:05:48 UTC Magnitude 4.9 - KURIL ISLANDS

USGS: Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 08:04:03 UTC Magnitude 5.8 - JUJUY, ARGENTINA

(Well what do you know....it did disperse around Indonesia and it headed for the pacific plate as well. Again more data to complete my model
of earthquake paths and indicators....)

What strikes me most is that an ATS FSME with a profession in forecasting can not appreciate what i am trying to accomplish here.
Your completely irrelevant post would not have disappointed me so much if it was made by anybody else. But you are an "expert" and are expected to appreciate the many difficulties that occur when making models of chaotic systems.

As a matter of fact, i appreciate ATS so much not because of the idiots that point out how wrong you are in each and every thread but because of the cooperation between people who tend to think outside the box....

I get the distinct impression (going by your reply) that you find this entire idea retarded but no matter how much you ridicule me, i will continue with my model for earthquake prediction just not on ATS anymore.

Mods, you can close this thread!! And to anybody interested in taking over the "operation mindcrime" account. Send me a U2U and i will provide you with my username/password...

Peace and out....

Wow.. cry more?

God forbid on such a forum of varried opinions that you should ever be called a fool. Grow some balls and make some progress on whatever your model is. I would LOVE for anyone to make ANY progress on ANYTHING truthfull.

Originally posted by Wertdagf
Wow.. cry more?

God forbid on such a forum of varried opinions that you should ever be called a fool.

Well that's just it. If it was just anybody making these remarks, i could live with that.......but OzWeatherman is the fragile earth subject matter expert and should exercise a more balanced way of expression concerning alternative subjects. Plus i expected a bit more understanding from his side, him being a meteorologist and familiar with seemingly unpredictability factors....that's all.

Grow some balls and make some progress on whatever your model is. I would LOVE for anyone to make ANY progress on ANYTHING truthfull.

If i find anything truthfull i will let you know. Agreed?

Peace

reply to post by operation mindcrime


hey, don't leave. i find your data fascinating. ats will be poorer without your input. you've provided many hours of educational inspiration for me on the topic of earthquakes.

Just chiming in here....

I agree 100% that ATS would be losing some great info if you were to stop with your predictions. I also find it fascinating. I see that OZ removed his post. Hopefully there has been some communication there and we will see your continued input.

It is easy for us normal lurkers (occasional posters) to just read and not comment, giving the impression that there are only a few watching and appreciating our info, when in fact there are many, many more.

I enjoy a good forecast

[edit on 29-1-2010 by westcoast]

reply to post by Wertdagf


Do you think you could be any more tactless? Geez...

Hey Operation Mindcrime, do your models take into account lunar perigee? The closest the moon will be to Earth is this weekend, with a distance of 356,592 km. As I posted in the epic "Whats going on at yellowstone?" thread:

If you think about how the oceans 'bulge' to the moon, the bulge follows the moon slightly because these bodies are all in motion. It is like the bulge chases the moon. My theory is that the magma has a similar bulge which causes pressure to build and retreat on the plates. As the moon approaches its perigee the bulge builds stronger and the strongest 'pull' will be right after the actual perigee.

Now, I am not saying this means doom and gloom. My interpretation of this theory is that swarms, specifically at sites where the quakes are due to magma (volcanic activity), may be more common. This will likely happen just after the perigee date.

Tonight is a full moon, and the closest perigee of the year is tomorrow - Jan 30 9:04 UTC at a distance of 356592 km. (Coincidentally, Mars is really close too.) If this theory holds any water, then really good swarm activity will pick up from the next few days to weeks.

For historical perspective, the last lunar perigee as close as the one happening tomorrow was December 12, 2008 with a distance of 356,567. Right after that perigee was the initial swarm at Yellowstone.

So since we are throwing predictions around, I will say that there is a 60% chance the recent swarm in Yellowstone will intensify next week and continue into the second week of February before quieting down. I'd say at peak there will be multiple 3.5 - 4.5 quakes but probably nothing more than an individual 5.5 or two during the swarm. The swarm may be longer and overall more energetic than the late 2008 / early 2009 swarm.

If weather were warm there and the ice were thawing, I would even predict a potential hydrothermal explosion (they happen every once-in-awhile there anyway) as water seeps deeper into the crust during the swarm. There are undoubtedly pockets of liquid water already under the surface, but I would only say a 10% chance of hydrothermal explosions right now. That prediction could change depending on if/how the swarm intensifies.

@Undo and Westcoast,

Thanks for the support. I have indeed spoken with OzWeatherman and it seems it was just a harmless remark not intended to attack me in any way. That doesn't make it less of a disappointment because i still believe that this line:

You are an experienced contributor to ATS. Please be an example for our newer members and make every post matter.

should hold true especially for FSME, Mods, Supermods and what have you more..
I guess i be joining the lurking bunch on ATS and follow with great interest the work of an other, well respected by me, ATS member....nydsdan.

@Nydsdan,

Indeed the lunar perigee has proven in the past to be a good indicator. Full moon up on the 30th so expecting to see some "firework" between....2de and 5th of Februari?

Yellowstone seems like a good place with all the activity going on in South America but keep an eye on that Cocosplate!!

I'll be lurking out for your posts.

@Wertdagf,

Thanks for keeping it real!! I mean it. Sometimes people need to hear that they shouldn't be such crybabies. Unfortunately the combination of Oz's position and the respect i had for him, made his remark twice as bad.
The ego can be a fickle, i guess.

@OzWeatherman

No hard feelings but........you can be a real inspiration killer.

Peace and respect,

Operation Mindcrime



[edit on 30-1-2010 by operation mindcrime]

reply to post by operation mindcrime


Oh well, let's continue.....

Magnitude >7.0
Date-Time

Wednesday, February 03, 2010 at 21:45:26 UTC

Location 5.000°S, 105.000°W

Or

Location 10.000°N, 60.000°S

The first location has the highest probability of a hit.

We'll see what happens.

Peace

[edit on 3-2-2010 by operation mindcrime]

Originally posted by operation mindcrime

Magnitude >7.0
Date-Time

Wednesday, February 03, 2010 at 21:45:26 UTC

Location 10.000°N, 60.000°S

I am sure you understand that the location i was expecting was of course 10.000°N, 60.000°E and not 60.000°S because that makes no sense..

anyway...

Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time

* Wednesday, February 03, 2010 at 22:39:39 UTC
* Thursday, February 04, 2010 at 02:09:39 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 28.279°N, 57.065°E

A little further up north then expected but i guess that's why the magnitude was a lot lower. Oh well, another lesson learned. Back to the drawing board.

Peace

Let's give this one more try...

Magnitude >8.0

Location 54°N, 164°W

Date-Time

* Sunday, March 07, 2010 at 09:55:39 UTC

Here's a long shot but i think that with the pattern of earthquakes, after the 8.8 chile quake, moving upwards along the North American plate we are in for an other major quake in the Aleutian Islands region.

The time frame is still a bit tricky because if it hasn't struck before the 7th of this month it will be delayed until the next full moon around the 27th of this month....

Anyway, let's see what happens...

Peace

Magnitude 2.7
Date-Time

* Sunday, March 07, 2010 at 10:07:36 UTC

Location 61.925°N, 147.864°W

See, i told you!!!

But seriously, i am concerned about this region releasing some major pressure pretty soon....calculations are pretty useless right now because the entire earth seems to be cracking up.

Keep an eye on that region!!

Peace

Originally posted by operation mindcrime
Magnitude >8.0

Location 54°N, 164°W

Date-Time

* Sunday, March 07, 2010 at 09:55:39 UTC

Magnitude 5.7

Tuesday, March 09, 2010 at 14:06:55 UTC

Location 51.539°N, 173.228°W

Talk about a day late and a couple of magnitudes short.....

I still say that the next big one will hit exactly in this region...

So i guess it will be near the end of this month.

Peace

Talk about a day late and a couple of magnitudes short.....

Oh, come on.

Given the lax standards you've set for yourself, you could've "predicted" a magnitude 7.0 almost anywhere in the world for March 4 to 6, and been "Right!"

2 or 3 days, 2 magnitudes or so, 30 degrees N,S,E, or W, either way and you're "right" again!

(When you're willing to accept shoddy 'performance,' that's just what you get.)

This is the USGS summary of mag. 5.0 quakes (with numerous duplicate dates and locations eliminated):

5.6 2010/03/09 ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
5.1 2010/03/09 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 2010/03/09 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.1 2010/03/08 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.1 2010/03/08 VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.7 2010/03/08 SALTA, ARGENTINA
5.0 2010/03/08 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.1 2010/03/08 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 2010/03/08 OFF COAST OF O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 2010/03/08 PAGAN REGION, MARIANA ISLANDS
6.0 2010/03/08 MAUG ISLANDS REG., MARIANA ISL.
6.0 2010/03/08 EASTERN TURKEY
5.1 2010/03/07 STATE OF YAP, STATES OF MICRONESIA
6.3 2010/03/07 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 2010/03/06 ROTA REG., NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
5.6 2010/03/06 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 2010/03/06 VANUATU
5.0 2010/03/06 WESTERN MONGOLIA
6.5 2010/03/05 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 2010/03/05 MAULE, CHILE
5.1 2010/03/05 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
6.3 2010/03/04 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.1 2010/03/04 MENDOZA, ARGENTINA
5.0 2010/03/04 ADMIRALTY ISL REG., PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.0 2010/03/04 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
6.2 2010/03/04 TAIWAN
5.1 2010/03/03 OFFSHORE ARAUCANIA, CHILE
5.2 2010/03/03 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.4 2010/03/03 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
5.2 2010/03/02 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA

earthquake.usgs.gov...

For an even more revealing look, plot all 3.0 magnitude quakes, and you will NEVER be wrong.

Here's the real formula:

Pick an "active" spot anywhere, make a "prediction," and you will more often than not be "right" (given the standards you (and ATS) seem to accept as reasonable).

jw

[edit on 9-3-2010 by jdub297]

reply to post by jdub297



Whip me up a list of magnitude +5 earthquakes for said region.....(that would be the Aleutian Islands region.)

Then we'll talk....

Come on man, i didn't ask you to read this thread. If it bothers you so much.....why read it?

Unlike predictions, I am actually trying to calculate where the next earthquake might be. Don't get me wrong, i actually have a theory and models behind it. I am just using this thread as a personal log.

(given the standards you (and ATS) seem to accept as reasonable).

Now i can understand that you would criticise me but i really can't understand why you would attack ATS for this....

Bad day at the office??.....don't worry, it happens to the best of us.

Peace

PS: i am really curious to see that list

[edit on 10-3-2010 by operation mindcrime]

forget it....

On with my work...

Peace

[edit on 10-3-2010 by operation mindcrime]

reply to post by operation mindcrime


Am classed as a lurker, Been keeping an eye on this thread for a while and I am finding it fascinating!

[edit on 10-3-2010 by RunningTiger]