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1) The equities markets have had a huge run up of over 50%.They are overbought. At approximately 18x 2009 Earnings, they are priced far above fair value. At the beginning of March 2009, they were price at only 11x 2009 Earnings. According to Art Cashin and others, fair value for the S&P500 is at about 850 to 880. At approximately 1020, the S&P500 is far from there.
2) The Insider Selling/Insider Buying ratio is 30.6. This is the highest that ratio has been since it has been tracked (2004). Those corporate officers probably know something.
3) Retail Sales are still decreasing. They were down about 4.4% for Aug. year over year according to Redbook. The much anticipated back to school season has been a bust so far. Even the Cash for Clunkers program, which gave automakers a shot in the arm, disappointed analysts. Plus it likely robbed future auto sales to record better numbers now. The national rate of auto loans that were 60 days past due was up 7.35 percent for the Quarter ended in June. That doesn’t sound like a lot of people are going to be able to afford to buy new cars soon.