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The Wisdom of Crowds? (If not then buy it now. Do not pass go, do not collect $200). He opens with the story of a contest at a county fair. The goal is to guess the weight of an ox after it had been slaughtered and dressed. The crowd all entered their guesses. After the contest was over Francis Galton took the entries and calculated the average and the standard deviation. Galton was a eugenicist who expected that the average guess would be very poor. After all, you couldn't expect a bunch of commoners to do as well as learned, educated men. But it turned out that the average guess of the crowd was 1723 and the weight of the ox was 1722 (or so, I can't recall the exact figure). The reason is simple: as long as errors are random then they will generally cancel out. As you get more and more people in the crowd the average guess will get closer and closer to the real value.
...there's no real evidence that one can become expert in something as broad as "decision making" or "policy" or "strategy." Auto repair, piloting, skiing, perhaps even management: these are skills that yield to application, hard work, and native talent. But forecasting an uncertain future and deciding the best course of action in the face of that future are much less likely to do so. And much of what we've seen so far suggests that a large group of diverse individuals will come up with better and more robust forecasts and make more intelligent decisions than even the most skilled "decision maker."
James Surowiecki
Source: The Wisdom of Crowds, Page: 32
Originally posted by badmedia
You gave me a false riddle and said that math was an invention of satan/evil
Originally posted by badmedia
How it misrepresents information as a means to trick people?
Originally posted by badmedia
You gave me a false riddle and said that math was an invention of satan/evil
Originally posted by badmedia
reply to post by soul of integrity
Fine, lets play with words and letters.
I can mix your name around "soul of integrity", and get this:
felonious gritty
And a few others:
erosion ugly tift
felony titus igor
figure snotty oil
finite ugly roost
first tongue oily
Is this all to suggest you are a felon, trying to erode things to be ugly? Or maybe just some corporate oil guy, trying to roost(put to sleep) the people with your oily/slippery toungue?
Originally posted by JesusisTruth
No no no NO.... what you are doing is throwing weird phrases and sentences together to come off as a false prophet, or I should say prophet... but to the sane it's a false prophet.
We ignore people like you because
there isn't much sanity in your post...
Originally posted by soul of integrity
to the sane? seems to imply i'm not sane? you can't possibly be suggesting such a thing, are you?
if you are judging me as insane, then you are telling me that i am in my own mind, which is what insane means ...
in order to observe/witness that i am in my own mind, then you must be in my mind to make such an observation, since insane means to reside within one's own mind.
so in order to observe me in my mind, you must be out of your mind, either that or in two places at once ...
summary: if you judge me as insane(within my own mind) such accurate judgement requires you to observe that i am in my own mind.
and if you are in my mind, you are out of your mind.
Originally posted by pasttheclouds
1.
does anyone understand the word DELUSION,
ECLIPSES were promised, and more then literal
the sun and moon will become.
Originally posted by badmedia
If you can't start posting in a reasonable manner, where points are made based on understanding and meaning rather than playing around with words, then I will just ignore your posts.
Originally posted by badmedia
Oh, another riddle.
Of course, I can walk around a man's house and know that he is not in the yard, which means he is probably in his house(mind as you call it).
So don't actually need to be in 2 places at once to know such a thing.