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U.S. housing starts, permits touch 9 month high

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posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 05:52 PM
reply to post by warrenb

They haven't been bulldozing any homes in my area. And we are still one of the most rapidly developing areas in the nation.

Today alone I laid out 16 homes. Over the last month or so I would say I have laid out over 100 homes.

And people are buying them.

The housing market is rebounding. I see it every day.

That doesn't mean that we aren't in for another kick in the keister, though. Because we are.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 08:47 PM
reply to post by JayinAR

I'm still waiting for the ATL house recovery... but we had a HUGE GLUT of inventory... people are buying again... but it probably wont happen as fast here as it is where you are.

Good to know though!

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 08:58 PM
reply to post by JayinAR

15 years in the construction industry. aircraft mechanic and engineer, last 6 years was a super building apartment complexes and commercial sites.

If it sounds like a resume it is. U2U me if you need help cause I need work instead of the odds and ends electrical work here drywall there crap. Can do anything from building roads to laying out an entire 20 acre construction site.

As for the thread, pockets of work happen. And the Dow has nothing to do with the economy as a whole.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 09:36 PM
reply to post by endisnighe

We are still going, but we are not going strong.
As I said, it is rebounding, but it is still nowhere near as strong as it was 2 years ago.

Back then, we were blowing and going. Now, we have downsized.
For quite a while I was worried about having a job at all, and I am still worried as I don't see work on backlog. It just seems to keep popping up.

But, hopefully, with time, it will continue to rebound and we will be able to pick up help.

As of right now, my firm has downsized their surveying department by half.
I am lucky I survived the cut. I guess I'm good.

Hopefully we will expand again soon. In fact, I am of the opinion that we need to expand a little now. We have a couple of lingering projects that are being put on the backburner (although they shouldn't be as they are very important projects) for this influx of house builds.

We have two VERY LARGE waterline projects that have been halted because we need to keep our home building contractor clients happy.

But we are talking about multi million dollar rural water development projects that are sitting idly...

I can't complain. I have job security for awhile yet. But I still worry that when this dries up, I am toast.

Again, sorry I can't help you.
But I'm sure that with your experience you will stay in work. If not, it would be a shame.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 09:58 PM
reply to post by Ferris.Bueller.II

To repeat, the housing market is recovering.
Or maybe rebounding is a better term.

I can tell you without doubt that it was VERY bad there for awhile. It is getting better though.

Lending has laxed in the last month particularly and savvy builders are jumping to get back to work.

There for awhile it was a NIGHTMARE. You are talking about full-blown housing developments being completely abandoned. Millions of dollars down the tubes like... THAT!! (snaps fingers)

But lately, I have actually seen a few of those developments being picked back up.

A LOT of houses going up in my area right now. And like I said, there was NOTHING... NOTHING... NOTHING going up even as recently as 3 months ago.

I was really concerned back then. In fact, I was being sent home about twice a week because there was simply no work.

But now, we are putting important jobs on the backburner because contractors are starting to build again.

In earnest.

Hopefully it continues.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 09:59 PM
reply to post by HunkaHunka

Well, here's the deal. Unemployment is down! Because the denominator continues to shrink therefore making the numerator larger! (Oh yeah, extended unemployment grew by a record number)

And yes starts up, but it's on apartment buildings not single family dwellings. Pendings are up because of the tax credits. And the 2.7% increase was a result of car sales and the increased cost of consumer goods not because folks are buying more. So don't go runnin' up the credit cards just yet.

Guaranteed the worst is yet to come, it might be a month, it might be 5 years but the Piper will come calling!

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:04 PM
reply to post by traderjack

That's odd. Becuase nearly 100% of what I have put up in the last month has been single family dwellings...

It appears that contractors have wisened up to the idiocy of building more 400k homes than the market can provide for and have instead shifted their focus to the 1,800sq foot starter home.

And they are actually selling!

Of course I live in the land of Wal-Mart, Tyson Foods and JB Hunt... so we were hit less so than most around the country. But I am seeing just the opposite of what people here are posting as market reports.

And in fact, my observations are more in line with the OP.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:11 PM
reply to post by JayinAR

1800 sq ft. STARTER HOME?!? WTF???

My house is less than 1500 sq ft. build in 63. That is more than enough house for a family of 4 and was 104K when I bought it.... Wow, who the heck needs a 2000 sq. ft. home?

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:14 PM
I am sorry any green shoots you are seeing are just mold on the edges of the economy.
A nations wealth is created through jobs, of which we have few and fewer to come.

Global Systemic Crisis

Now, as summer 2009 comes to a close, and as the three rogue waves start impacting the global economy hard (unemployment (6), bankruptcies (7) and monetary shocks (8)), the time to mend the system, or to prepare for a soft transition towards a new global system, is over (9). The first signs of a major decoupling (10) are beginning to appear: the rest of the world is rapidly moving away from the Dollar zone. As shown by the chart below, there is a 95 percent chance that 1,000 billion new USDs will be printed in a very near future... not very attractive for the Dollar zone.

(6) In the United States, the real rate of unemployment growth remains between 600,000 and 1 million new jobless every month, if we include those who decide to stop searching for a job (source: CNBC/New York Times, 09/07/2009). To get an idea of the socially explosive wave currently hitting the US economy, in California, since September 1st, 143,000 new jobless are no longer entitled to insurance benefits (including their families, that makes an extra 1 million people in distress... just for this month) – source : MyBudget360, 09/02/2009. In Europe, Asia, … everywhere, unemployment rates are almost the highest in modern history (at 5.7 percent, Japan already reached its historic high in July – source : Japan Times, 09/08/2009) ... despite all sorts of manipulation to reduce the figures.

(7) As an anecdote, there have been more bankruptcies in the US between GEAB N°36 (June 16, 2009) and GEAB N°37 (September 16, 2009) than during the whole of 2008, including two of the most important bankruptcies of the year. But, of course, the media cannot make their headlines on both swine fever and bankruptcies. The same goes for the rate of US corporate bankruptcies which has reached a 12.2 percent all-time high (source: Yahoo, 09/09/2009). In Spain, the number of bankruptcies in the first semester of 2009 is three times the number in 2008 (source: Spanish News, 08/06/2009). In France, employers expect 70,000 corporate bankruptcies by the end of this year (source: Capital, 09/02/2009).

And the beat goes on.
Thank you sir, may I have another?

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:24 PM
reply to post by rogerstigers

Around here they simply don't build them any smaller... at least not anymore.
The house I am staying in right now is very small.
50 years ago, that would have been a starter home.

Today, the smallest new homes being built in this area are 1800sq feet.
At least those are the smallest I have ever encountered.

Eh, actually, I'll revise that to 1400, depending.

I am including the garage which may or may not be heated.

Anyhow, you would have to see how these things HAVE been built over the last several years to see what I am saying...

Two years ago the only thing that went up in this area was a 2600 monster.

And they were selling for 400k.

Now you are looking at 119k for an 1800 footer, or 1400, depending.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:31 PM
A good indicator of value to look at is 100 bucks per square foot. At least that was the figure a few years back.

So when you see something right around 3,000 selling for 400k, you know you are being taken to the shed.

When you see something closer to 100 per square foot, that is a little more in line. Although you are still being taken to the shed because the builder only pays half of that. He aims to make 100% profit on a home...

In this economy, you can buy a home really cheap if you see it sitting empty for some time.

Shoot for 90 bucks per square foot and go bargain. You may pick up a steal.
Especially if the housing market DOES continue to rebound.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:34 PM
reply to post by JayinAR

Counting the garage in the sq. ft. total is cheating..

My house with garage attached is close to 1800, I think. In Texas, it is uncommon to include garage sq. ft. in the official number.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:41 PM

Originally posted by RoofMonkey

You have a tax credit of $8000 for first time buyers sapping the "on the fence" buyers to go ahead and commit to taking on the debt.

I heard on the radio that the 8,000 didnt necessarily have to be paid back.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:41 PM
reply to post by rogerstigers

In real estate terms it depends on whether or not the garage is heated.
But anyhow, we are seeing an increase in these type homes.

They are also moving towards a "San Fransisco" style home. Meaning a long and narrow monstrosity that is build on a 50X75' lot.

1800 sq ft. give or take, ugly as sin, no room to do anything in your yard, 2 stories, etc.

But they are selling!

I still say it is a great time to buy. Lending is relaxing a bit and if you do your homework in your area and figure out what the median price is being asked, you can cut it by 10% and buy a home on the cheap.

If things continue to improve, you just made a nice little chunk of change...

I know of a few developers who are taking full advantage of this. I know of one in particular who has MANY millions floating in the market right now.

I think this is quite presumptious myself... but hey, if the market really does come around, as it is looking like it may, he is a genius and I'll be kicking myself in the ass.

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:45 PM
Oh NO...

This Can't be happening!!!

Hopefully when Obama starts his blitzkrieg on America he will blow up many of these
alleged housing starts with a quickness!

Could you imagine if things improved,,,, uhhggghhh, gives me the chills

posted on Sep, 17 2009 @ 10:50 PM
reply to post by mental modulator

I have little doubt that things will improve.
That isn't the point of *my* objections.

My objections are that they aren't fixing the problems at hand. They are crutching up the underlying issues and passing the buck to the next guy in charge.

This isn't about Obama. This mess started with Bush, or arguably Clinton before him.

This isn't a partisan issue. No matter how much you want it to be.

My beef with Obama over THIS ISSUE, is the fact that he is still catering to the financiers who are benefitting through this mess rather than take it on the chin as a man and allow this market to self-correct.

Is this hard to understand?

Yeah, I am optimistic because for the meantime it keeps me in a job, but this isn't the way to go.
Theoretically, I should be out of work right now, and if it happens tomorrow, my biggest concern will be finding more work.

And honestly, I am ready to abandon the construction industry.

Sure, I wouldn't mind continuing land surveying, but in this economy, there isn't too much selling of land either.

Perhaps, if one of these gutless politicians ever decide to do what is right I can take up pan-handling.

[edit on 17-9-2009 by JayinAR]

posted on Sep, 18 2009 @ 07:02 AM
The govt. has been handing out $8,000 credits to first time home buyers. Many home builders have been doubling that amount in addition to other incentives to get these former renters and basement dwellers into the door. When the $8,000 incentive expires, I think we will start to go back to reality again. This credit was allowed to be used as a down payment on FHA loans. Hmmm. There is talk of extending this through 2010. They are creating a there own housing bubble that will deflate when the program ends.

These highly touted numbers are for housing STARTS. Meanwhile existing home values have dropped significantly in once stable real estate markets. Markets that were never over inflated like certain markets in California. Foreclosures are increasing and first time buyers with an $8k credit are snapping up houses for a steal thereby devaluing the existing homes in the neighborhood.

When this credit program was launched in Jan. it was estimated to bring approx. 300,000 new home buyers into the market. New home builders went after these buyers with vengence. Hence the distorted numbers. The program ends Nov. 30. Let's see if they extend it to keep the warm fuzzy feelings rolling.

[edit on 18-9-2009 by jibeho]

[edit on 18-9-2009 by jibeho]

[edit on 18-9-2009 by jibeho]

posted on Sep, 18 2009 @ 01:28 PM
reply to post by JayinAR

What part of the country do you live in? So I can put a little context with your statements.

posted on Sep, 18 2009 @ 05:37 PM
reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar

Northwest Arkansas.
2nd line.

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