Dow 10,000 just around the corner

Dow 10,000 just around the corner

www.dailyfinance.com

The DJIA nearly hit 9,800 on September 16 and closed the day at just above 9,791. Three more days of the index rising more than 1 percent and the Dow will be back at 10,000. It has not been above that level since last October.

(visit the link for the full news article)

So much for a global meltdown....

I know lots of people will claim that this is a suckers rally... but that remains to be seen. No one has a crystal ball to see that...

But it's kinda wild that we are coming back to the 10,000 mark!

Hopefully this bodes well for our economy.

The question I have, is where is the next bubble?

It seems that today the best thing to do is find the next bubble, and plug in early so you can eject early as well, so as to avoid the pop!

www.dailyfinance.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

I hope it goes back to 14k in a couple weeks.

reply to post by HunkaHunka

Originally posted by HunkaHunka
The question I have, is where is the next bubble?

I am convinced the next bubble will be a 'green' one.

I see a perfect storm of the very real, and not so very real, indicators of environmental change, and the politics to support action, and the business opportunity to match.

Mark my words on this one.

reply to post by loam


I'm marking them Loam! I'm marking them!

The entire thing is a big bubble. It is totaly false. Just like it was before. Let me explain.

It might have been extremely high a year ago, year and a half ago. BUT it was all because of credit and loans. Everyone spent like mad, but they did not spend actual money. They spent on credit. Credit that they could not pay back for 101 reasons. Domino effect after that. People didnt actually get paid for services or products. Companies then went under leaving millions jobless.

Paper is not worth anything if it is not backed by something solid.

This is the same thing over agian, it will just happen a lot faster. No on is getting their job back. In fact, the unemployment rate is getting ready to spike again.

The products being bought that are causing the market to rise, are not being bought with money that is backed by anything solid. It is extra money the govt printed out on credit and gave away.

That number is nothing more than glamor. It was created to give the image of hope. It is like putting a hologram of an oasis in the middle of the sahara desert.

reply to post by HunkaHunka


My second bet will be the 'health care' bubble... Pay particular attention to alternative medicines and snake oil products and services.

Regardless what happens with Obama Care, this is another perfect storm in the making.

In fact, I'm pretty convinced BOTH of the bubbles will happen concurrently or in close proximity to one another.



[edit on 17-9-2009 by loam]

I still fear we are not out of the woods yet. Look at what happened in the great depression. Right now people are betting on a quick recovery and the same happened in the 1930's. It wasn't until people realised the recovery would not be quick that the market really started to tank. When the jobs return I will feel a lot more optomistic. There are some good signs but the system is so fragile and there is a lot that could happen that would completely crash it in this weakened state.

[edit on 17-9-2009 by Jacob08]

credit cards will be the next to bust and without credit cards the market will collapse because there is not enough real cash to hold us afloat anymore

I'm guessing so dont quote me, I'll say 75% of americans are still using credit cards for their plasma tv that will take them 2 years to pay off and be upset because a better one will be out next month and then buy it making the mess we are in worse

don't worry it all down hill from here

i hope im wrong but i'd like you to take a look at this first chart from the 1929 market crash. notice the quick drop from 381 to 198 and THEN explodes back up to 294. how many people do you think saw this rally and thought the worst was over? and look what happened after that??

stockcharts.com...

then compare it to our crash. drops from 13930 to 7062 and blows back up to 9700. history repeats? you decide.

stockcharts.com...

Federal student loans, credit card debt, real estate, green technology, healthcare........the ENTIRE US economy is one big bubble supported by a debt based money system. There is NO TRUE RECOVERY without jobs. I don't care if the stock market goes to 14K. What's the point? Millions of Americans are out of work. Who the hell do you think is going to support them? Who the hell do you think is going to make up for a loss in tax base? Yep YOU AND ME! Those of us who have a job and those of us who have lived within our means. Wall Street and their ilk are like crack addicts...........always coming back for more.

The promise of change and bringing out new green technologies seems to be an invitation for investors. We all know these new technologies take time to spread throughout the market. Same old mind games.

If it all comes crashing down like some say, no doubt they have other plans with that as well. I'm concerned but still don't know what to do about it except sit back and wait. Being prepared can just be not as shocked when it happens......again.

My family apparently plans on selling estate property to invest in the market. I'd much rather hold on to the physical property. They aren't listening to me though.

reply to post by HunkaHunka


The next bubble will be the currency bubble and it'll be the last one. The level of deficit spending and debt monetization we've seen over the last 18-24 months will lead to a massive devaluation of the dollar through inflation as soon as consumers start spending again and all of that newly created money starts changing hands.

When that happens, China and Japan will stop buying our debt entirely and possibly dump the debt holdings they already possess. This will put even more downward pressure on the dollar and more pressure on the government to create even more money out of thin air to pay its $4 trillion budget.

And so, the cycle spirals out of control into oblivion.

It's not your grandfathers stock market but I'm not wasting my time anymore. I'm headed to the beach.

reply to post by turbokid


Yes a number of people did think that. Here are some amusing quotes from the era. This site is promoting gold so they have an agenda but a good read none the less. My personal favorite quote.

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."

- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

www.gold-eagle.com...



[edit on 17-9-2009 by Jacob08]

This current market trend has a great deal to do with the massive amount of volume being moved in Trash stocks. If you look at the total amount of stock being moved around in the Freddie Mac and Frannie Mae like stocks, you'll see that it is a rather large portion of the volume, more than it should be. There are also numerous other indicators as to why this move is a bear market rally.

I can't get into detail because I am heading off to work but the next bubble will be gold.

A lot of those "toxic assets" are still toxic... and are still assets. With the TARP bailouts, these underwater banks and agencys have done nothing more than sweep the bad loans under the rug (which in many cases, should never have been made in the first place). Until these assets are realized at what they are actually worth, it's just a continuation of the massive fraud. All on your dime.

An example of Well Fargo Bank buying a toxic asset from itself in order to hide it from it's accounting books here.


Oh, and did you know that one in five FHA loans are in arrears or in default?


Real money, and not hypothetical as yet to be earned money, is severely lacking. The "Cash for Clunkers" program sucked the potential buyers out of the market and now sales are plummeting... (just wait until those buyers realize that they paid State sakes tax on the full sticker price of the car and have yet to pay Federal income tax on the voucher come next April)

From the AP

While most dealers are grateful for the boost, they're paying for it now with fewer customers ... rebates drew people into the market who otherwise would have kept driving their clunkers due to uncertainty over the sputtering economy. Those customers might have made their purchases later in the year.

Link

A side effect? Used car prices were up 1.9% for the month.


So.. Cash for Clunkers has done nothing more that place more people in fresh debt. Yee Haw....

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d1963dd0f6da.png[/atsimg]


The whole thing is a house of cards.

Back on the 25th of August, Karl Denninger pulled up a listing of the most active trades going on in the market... the results?

That would be about 2.126 billion shares in total for these four stocks, two of which (Fannie and Freddie) are so far underwater in their equity value (to the government no less!) that there is no chance they're worth anything, yet they remain listed, and the other two are zombie banks with Citibank existing only because of $300 billion in asset guarantees by The Fed and Treasury

2.126 billion shares had been moved of this garbage stock.

Link


Game playing with the artificial manipulation of the volume (HFT) and the suckers who buy into it. Yeah... we may make 10,000... but it will be on as ephemeral as the previous bubbles.


Edit: Looks like I needed more coffee earlier...

[edit on 17-9-2009 by RoofMonkey]

I have to agree with almost every post on this thread...BTW Hunka good post, S&F Healthcare investment especially on the tech side is starting to rise I have a feeling that the ever looming inflation bug will bite us in the ass before any bubble can burst, so to speak. But I can tell you you are on the right track.

[edit on 17-9-2009 by djvexd]

Meanwhile... FedEx reports a 53% loss....

NEW YORK — FedEx Corp. said Thursday its first-quarter earnings fell 53 percent — matching its prediction released last week — and warned its profit will remain weak through at least the end of the year.

But the world’s second largest package delivery company, considered a bellwether of economic health, said it does see signs of improvement in the global economy as international shipments picked up.

The Memphis, Tenn.-based company reported earnings of $181 million, or 58 cents per share, compared with $384 million, or $1.23 per share, a year ago.

Revenue fell 20 percent to about $8 billion.

blog.taragana.com...



US and Canadian Rail traffic ain't looking so good either...

US Freight Rail traffic: ↓ 16.4% (carloads), ↓ 16.7% (intermodal) in August 2009 from August 2008.

Canadian Freight Rail Traffic ↓ 20.5% (carloads), ↓18.3% (intermodal) in August 2009 from August 2008.


www.aar.org...





[edit on 17-9-2009 by RoofMonkey]

Originally posted by Jacob08
reply to post by turbokid

 

Yes a number of people did think that. Here are some amusing quotes from the era. This site is promoting gold so they have an agenda but a good read none the less. My personal favorite quote.

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."

- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

www.gold-eagle.com...


[edit on 17-9-2009 by Jacob08]

thanks jacob, yeah i like that quote, its funny because some months ago i had it as my signature, haha

[edit on 17-9-2009 by turbokid]