So where's your recovery now?

reply to post by HunkaHunka


Hunka,

“Minsky” was shorthand for Hyman Minsky, a hitherto obscure macroeconomist who died over a decade ago. Many economists had never heard of him when the crisis struck, and he remains a shadowy figure in the profession. But lately he has begun emerging as perhaps the most prescient big-picture thinker about what, exactly, we are going through. A contrarian amid the conformity of postwar America, an expert in the then-unfashionable subfields of finance and crisis, Minsky was one economist who saw what was coming. He predicted, decades ago, almost exactly the kind of meltdown that recently hammered the global economy.

His proposed solutions seem to be a roadmap that countries are following.

Please note the less palatable of his proposals to stimulate the economy.

To prevent the Minsky moment from becoming a national calamity, part of his solution (which was shared with other economists) was to have the Federal Reserve - what he liked to call the “Big Bank” - step into the breach and act as a lender of last resort to firms under siege. By throwing lines of liquidity to foundering firms, the Federal Reserve could break the cycle and stabilize the financial system. It failed to do so during the Great Depression, when it stood by and let a banking crisis spiral out of control. This time, under the leadership of Ben Bernanke - like Minsky, a scholar of the Depression - it took a very different approach, becoming a lender of last resort to everything from hedge funds to investment banks to money market funds.

Minsky’s other solution, however, was considerably more radical and less palatable politically. The preferred mainstream tactic for pulling the economy out of a crisis was - and is - based on the Keynesian notion of “priming the pump” by sending money that will employ lots of high-skilled, unionized labor - by building a new high-speed train line, for example.

Full article here

Hey no matter how bad the dollar is doing, lets go and print some more money.

U.S. to Hit Debt Ceiling- Again

Sadly with all the bail out and the cash infusion to make the markets look alive, the debt ceiling is going to be reach no matter what.

What recovery? America can not stop the spending spree without collapsing the nation.

At $12.1 trillion, the national debt ceiling was just $349 billion away from being topped after unprecedented intervention into the financial markets that included $700 billion in bailouts and a $787 billion stimulus package.

On August 7, the U.S. Treasury Department sent a letter to lawmakers warning them that another vote to raise the national debt ceiling was imminent. Since that time, the economy has improved somewhat. Lawmakers are hoping that this will allow them to put the vote off until later in the year and provide them with some political cover.

If the congress increase the debt ceiling the markets will take a big hit, that is why they have been postponing the increase but eventually they will have to do it and then that is when things for the American tax payer and deplete work force is going to really start acting against the government run a way spending

money.cnn.com...

reply to post by HunkaHunka


Whose to say that it's not a volume-based buildup by serial traders and that there will not be a massive round of profit taking that will initiate a death spiral?

If people are afraid to consume to previous levels with credit card debt and second mortgages and such, who is going to buy the products that these companies are developing?

The market is just a small segment of the broader view, I don't trust it to tell me that we are "recovering", and frankly I don't want things to be exactly like they were. If things return to the way they were, we will just be setting ourselves up for the next crash. People's eyes have been opened to the dangers of rampant consumerism. There would not have a bubble to burst if folks hadn't wanted things they couldn't afford in the first place.

JMHO, of course

reply to post by eldard


You can check actual Bid contracts -

www.abovetopsecret.com...

My recovery is actually doing very well.

My stocks are now worth more than before the crash.

I'm still employed.

With the downturn in the economy I was able to build a vacation house.

I still have money in the bank and food in my pantry.

reply to post by Wildbob77


Sheesh wildbob, good to see you know what's up and were prepared.

You walked through a s**tstorm and came out smelling like a rose!

Originally posted by hotrodturbo7
reply to post by HunkaHunka

 

Whose to say that it's not a volume-based buildup by serial traders and that there will not be a massive round of profit taking that will initiate a death spiral?

Now that's very possible... No one can say either way if this is a suckers rally or not.

reply to post by HunkaHunka




That is only reflecting those pulling unemployment benefits. It does not reflect independent contractors, or people who's benefits expired, or anyone who was self employed, or anyone who is not using the employment office to find work.

You need to start looking at real numbers.

I don't care if the DOW hits 30k, it's only representative of 30 companies. And if the Dollar index continues to drop, the Dow could go that high, and the economy would be much worse off.

reply to post by aravoth


Ok... you be bearish and I'll be bullish and we'll see who ends up with a self fulfilling prophecy ;-)

reply to post by hotrodturbo7


I pretty much kept my eyes open and took action as necessary.

But no one listens to me when I talk about the economy.

They'd rather hear for one expert or another.

reply to post by HunkaHunka


You trust MSM we'll trust real numbers and common sense. Indeed we'll see.

Originally posted by eldard
reply to post by HunkaHunka

 

You trust MSM we'll trust real numbers and common sense. Indeed we'll see.

I'm not trusting the MSM...

Yesterday alone I got 5 new sales leads came through my door (each will go for about $50-100k). That's a record in one day!

Today I got 2 more....

At least for me, things *ARE* recovering! THANK GOD!



Not to mention, my wife just got off the phone, and her mother who has been unemployed for 3 years now, just now got a new job making $60k! Which is great in her area of the country! I can't tell you how happy that has made her, and how much financial obligation it has taken off of me!

Lovin every minute of my recovery!

How 'bout *them* real numbers!

[edit on 17-9-2009 by HunkaHunka]

reply to post by Wildbob77


Ditto for me as well. I'll hold off on the shotguns and canned goods.I just got a 16% raise and A 10% bonus. My company is hiring. And we were down to a four day week last year. Our labor force just received a 6% raise I was very happy to approve. And many of them were laid off. Should I just tell them all their hard work and sacrifice was for nothing.

reply to post by concernedcitizan


There ya have it... anecdotaly things are looking up... not just from the MSM perspective...

Though some people just don't want it to get better... I have a feeling it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy for those folks though...

We'll probably borrow a few trillion to pay off our debt.

Of course Washington will have to get its cut, and then there are the additional give-away programs that . . . actually we may have to borrow 12 trillion to pay off 3 trillion.

So much seems to fall through the crack.

reply to post by HunkaHunka


I think most of those folks have a wonderful furure in either the food service or housekeeping industries. As a licensed CPA for the past 25 years I know a little on how the world of finance works. You don't make money by complaining. Hard work rules.

I saw this on the local news this morning. The recesion may be ending soon and I saw this a month a go, 2 months a go,3months a go...
This is the same news that says prices are decreasing???
They never give a direct source. I once called up my local news to ask where they got their information from and the person said the internet!
I can safely say I no longer trust my local news 100%.
Then again they were right about an increase in electricity. They had a story about it a whole week before my actual electric company knew about it.

reply to post by jtma508


I don't think consumerism will ever go back to the way it was. Nor should it. Americans just can't maintain that kind of spending without being in debt. And a few less mega shopping centers is not a bad thing anyways.

People just don't understand. The economy is complicated. It is not a thermometer that goes up and down. It is several lines of dominoes, and some have to fall for others to fall.

I really wouldn't expect conumerism to come back anytime soon either. Even if employment recovers, people are gonna be a little leery for a while.

But in my own neck of the woods, a 700k house was only on the market for 3 months, normally it would of been 6 or more. I think that is a good sign.

Seriously people, it has only been a year since anyone attempted to fix the economy, how fast do you actually expect recovery to be?

[edit on 17-9-2009 by nixie_nox]

reply to post by HunkaHunka


Common sense = recovery = higher oil prices again = idiot masses will have trouble paying bills again = back to square one.

Man, I'm glad I live in Asia.

reply to post by dreamseeker


Actually, Jim Cramer has been harping about the end of the "recession" since March. And coincidentally (or not) the Dow has been on the upswing since then.