posted on Jan, 3 2010 @ 07:12 PM
Japan will not break completely with the US for some time. It fears China a great deal. It has an ageing population and the highest government debt to
GDP ratio of all the G7 developed nations. It has a shrinking population of young people to run a massive military. Demographics + economics of
running a miltary + fear of China + remaining need for access to US markets and the security umbrella = no decisisve break with the US...yet.
It is worth remembering that there have been "push me, push you, says me, says you" arguments over bases and docking between the US and Japan since
at least the 1960s...friction and tension, but no snapping. This most recent move is pretty direct and harsh, usuing strong, blunt language, but I
don't think it is as exceptional as some may imagine.
The situation, of course, is subject to change at some point, but that point is still a ways off. If the US radically collapses and becomes unable to
provide for itself, for example, the Japanese may be forced to go their own way, like it or not. Or they may devlop friendlier relations with China
and feel more secure as part of some Chinese sphere of influence. One scenario has the US and China squabbling over Japan the same way the two
currently squabble over Taiwan. At any rate, I think the situation will develop more slowly than this rhetoric suggests, so I wouldn't read as much
into it as some.
[edit on 1/3/10 by silent thunder]