Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

I thought you said you didnt have any money invested so my bad on that.

I like what you have to say and listen to it. Historical data is great and can give us an idea of how things "might" play out. But there is also the human side of it and that is were anything goes and it could change the way we look at the historical data someday. Greed is playing a big role in what is going on right now.

I hope you are right, I really do and I will be one of the first to come back and say you were right if it turns around.

If it doesnt turn around anytime soon, It will turn around eventually. Maybe we will all look back at this as a stepping stone in this big game and fix the problems that got us here in the first place.

If we follow the historical data then it is pretty much a given that it will happen again, eventually. It will be the same game just with different players.

See I think Greeny is right on point when it comes to looking at the stock market as a money making machine. If you are trading stock and doing the tech analysis, its about what is going up and down today, tomorrow and next week. Its impossible to know how a company will do more than one quarter out. Things change, the competition changes, the business environment changes, and traders don't care. Its about which stock will make me money today.

On the other hand, the "real economy" is irrelevant to the stock market. There is absolutely no reason there has been a rally in the past couple of months. Since March, unemployment has gone up, consumer spending has gone down, foreclosures have gone up, GDP has gone down. All these so called green shoots are nothing more than bad results being not as bad as the analysts are predicting. Analyst predicts that there will be 600,000 new unemployment filings, the results are 580,000, and the market goes up.

MickyDees goes up after they fire people because on paper, their numbers look better. If they were planning to sell a million Big Macs, but had to pay 10,000 employees, their cash flow would equal x. Fire a thousand people, and suddenly their expected expenses shrunk and it looks like they are making more money. Stock goes up. But then in three months the results come out that people decided to BBQ in their back yard more than MickyDees expected and they sold only 800,000 Big Macs, stock goes back down. End result = fire another thousand people.

Green Bic, I would never challenge you knowledge at reading charts, you are certainly better than I am at that, but Charts are a fictitious snapshot of the real economic conditions.

Here is an example of what I am talking about:

NEW YORK (AP) — A mixed report on job losses and unemployment for August nudged the stock market higher Friday. Stocks edged up after the Labor Department reported a slower pace of job losses last month but also an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.7 percent — the highest since June 1983. Analysts had been expecting the rate to increase to 9.5 percent after unexpectedly dipping to 9.4 percent in July. Most economists expect the unemployment rate to top 10 percent by early next year. The report also showed that employers cut 216,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 276,000 lost in July and better than the 225,000 figure analysts had been expecting. It was the lowest level of job losses in a year.

www.google.com...

Because less jobs disappeared than the analyst predicted, the market goes up. Its important that the 216,000 number not be mistaken for the number of people filing new claims. That number is the amount of actual jobs that completely disappeared.

Investors found little support in reports earlier this week on unemployment. The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of people filing for unemployment claims fell last week by 4,000 to 570,000 while the number of people receiving benefits rose. Economists had been expecting a bigger drop. On Wednesday, a private sector report on unemployment showed a decline in job losses in August, but the figure was higher than anticipated.

www.google.com...

Its all a big game. Green Bic has the right approach. He is trying to figure out the rules to the game and make money with the big boys. But when TPTB decide to crash the market, I hope GBM can get out of the market quick.

reply to post by finemanm


If I was *personally* invested right now it would all be intraday strategies - buying something and holding really only makes sense anymore for stocks like C *imo*

reply to post by pcgeek


If you look in my media profile you will see I called for this a looong time ago, but that was easy, because we have seen this EXACT setup before - its 1974 all over again mang' so pass that shiznoz

I dont have like extra money invested no, I do have variable annuties that allow for rebalancing though, that I play with, but I dont consider that being in the game. All my previously written programs and such and my new ones are just something where you can sit at home in your underwear, or your favorite garment (personally i dont wear underwear so..) and just sit there and watch yourself make $1400 a day with $100,000

Im guessing you think that is absurd, or most will, thats fine too. There are programs from other companies that do much more complex things that I could ever comes up with, but we will see once all the historical testing is done.

The value is going up, yet the volume is going down. Common sense dictates that it cannot continue like this forever.

The price of stocks goes up as more stock is sold. Demand creates value. However, in the current market, demand is going down, but value is still being "created"?

I'm no financial whiz, but it just doesn't make sense to me. It's one of those "If it looks too good to be true..." situations.

This is going to hurt...

This goes along with kondriatiev long wave economics. Supposedly we're just in a wave 3 up and about to go into wave 4 down, to below march lows. The 1930s depression gives credence to the theory because this one is following the same pattern, from the data points we have so far. Some smarter people than me have mentioned that the "sucker's rally" is running out of steam according to the technicals.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Thanks for making my point. Day trading activity has NOTHING to do with the economy. All you need is movement, and the knowledge to predict when the direction of that movement is about to change.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


If your program works, would you give me a copy?

Hmm. Can you say... Time Wave Zero?

That and the webbot predicted somethin major in aug 22-23 (which didn't happen as far as I know) and something much much bigger on oct 25. Before the aug 22-23 date I went into that pendulum prediction thread and asked if these dates had any significance. According to the pendulum, nothing would happen on aug 22-23 (low and behold, nothing did) but, it said something huge, not quite ww3 huge, or nuke huge, but somethin really big WOULD happen on this oct 25 date. It caught my attention that the pendulum prediction called the non happening of aug 22-23 spot on, and then predicts this oct 25 along w/ time wave zero. It should be interesting to see what happens.

reply to post by finemanm


If you are an accredited investor you can take 100% responsibility for all monies, and I get 20% of what you put in with no monetary responsibility to you, the rest would be yours (winnings or losing) minus another 8% per year.

But if you think about it, its worth it, but too soon to talk yet before all historical analysis is complete

The idea of a 1974 type of meltdown has occurred to me and I remember that one very well.

The biggest difference between 1974 and now are the artificial derivatives as well as some of the political climate.

1974 was the year Nixon got his ass ripped, Gordon Liddy went to jail (LOL...I hear rumors that he used to walk ramrod straight around the yard with his clothes starched and crisp. lol

Anyhow...one of the Japanese soldiers was informed they lost in 1974...TRUE!!

A little thing known as the OIL EMBARGO ...in MarchAprilish...also LOTS of Tornadoes...

ALSO Nixon wanted to discuss using CIA to block FBI investigations...lol

So the times were turbulent as well.


Debt was different.

Nobody I knew had credit cards.

Very few borrowed money form the banks.

Most pay cash and save.

Now we are in a freak storm of weird debt.

Keep looking at it though as I hope you are right concerning the 1974 thing.

reply to post by whiteraven


Well, I cant quite remember the 70's as I was not alive then, I prob. couldnt rememeber it anyways even if I was, but if you reference the moves in the stock market - meaning if you compared the two side by side, you would have no idea which one was the 70's or 2008-09 (unless you say the numbers on the side)

The moves are almost lockstep- no one likes to bring this up either because

1. The are ignorant of it, or uneducated

2. It doesnt fit their agenda (meaning it wont get web hits like "death to economy in 20 days etc..)


I have been trying to pitch this to everyone here for a super long time, but I kept getting called a disinfo agent lol - when its the OTHER WAY AROUND haha

"The thing about money, Bud...it makes ya do things ya don't wanna do."
-Wall Street (movie)

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Hmm considering the deflationary effects of evaperating credit... I woould to see the explanation economically of how how 1970's and 09 are similar...

reply to post by Rockpuck


The charts

Energy Crisis = Banking Crisis

The charts almost 100% confirm that and I have backed this up in another thread but I cant remember where or when, but its there

reply to post by GreenBicMan


No, no.. you misunderstand..

Economically how is 1970 and 2009 alike? I am not talking about markets (which I don't see as alike either)..

For instance you speak of energy.. in 1970 oil was expensive because of an embargo... in the 00's oils expensive due to depreciated value of our currency and over speculation... quite different..

Besides, the economy is supposed to direct the market, the market cannot direct the economy?

Flawed logic.

Originally posted by -NewSense-
Hmm. Can you say... Time Wave Zero?

That and the webbot predicted somethin major in aug 22-23 (which didn't happen as far as I know) and something much much bigger on oct 25. Before the aug 22-23 date I went into that pendulum prediction thread and asked if these dates had any significance. According to the pendulum, nothing would happen on aug 22-23 (low and behold, nothing did) but, it said something huge, not quite ww3 huge, or nuke huge, but somethin really big WOULD happen on this oct 25 date. It caught my attention that the pendulum prediction called the non happening of aug 22-23 spot on, and then predicts this oct 25 along w/ time wave zero. It should be interesting to see what happens.

Something did happen on August 22 and 23rd. To be more precise, nothing happened. As in that was how it was supposed to look.

Take it from me. That weekend is the turning point, everything started to stress out a little more.

The insider traders started pulling out of the market at that time and there are fractures in the retail sales (which not many people noticed).

Believe me though. It happened, only the trained eye could see it though.

reply to post by Rockpuck


The market almost views them as identical, as for what "x" is now and how that is different than "y" this time around, well that is not for me to hypothesize, but more for someone like yourself since you are a historical mastermind like a few others on here. I am sure you could piece it together in about 15 mins if you put your mind to it lol.

The part that is important to me is that the market views these two events in a VERY SIMILAR FASHION.

[edit on 7-9-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by Rockpuck


A reply to your last sentance.

That is incorrect.

The MARKET tries to ANTICIPATE the ECONOMY in 6-18 months = FWD LOOKING INDICATOR