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History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. I have been in the camp that this is a bear market rally. That is what I thought we would be getting in March. I'm also in the camp that because of the need to deleverage debt in most of the developed world, we will likely be heading into a global economic depression and perhaps at worse case, a collapse in the banking system.
I took a look at the bear market rally of 1930 and have found many similarities to our current bear market rally. Here is a chart from MSN money of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from November 1929 to October of 1932.
As I mentioned before, the bear market rally of 1930 lasted 157 days and had a gain of 42.85%. Our bear market rally today is now up for 152 days since bottoming on March 6th and has a gain of 44.07%.
HOW RETAILERS DID IN AUGUST: Soft back-to-school sales are not good news for retailers and a monthly tally of 32 chains' sales found a 12th straight year-over-year decline, but there were signs the holiday season could be less dismal than feared.