ok - sorry about that, there is prob. only 1 girl in this world who could say something to me and just totally throw me off course.. ahhh! anyways
unlike a market, I just cant seem to figure her out so ill just stick to this for a bit
So first lets look at this
1. If we invested $1000 into each the DJIA (dow jones industrial average)and Gold in 1933 we have results of (as of earlier this year in March, so
feel free to adjust numbers in your mind)
DJIA = $145,000 (rounded and you must add it in the last 3 months)
GOLD = $44,000 (same rules apply)
2. Now, over the past 8-9 years or so, it has been a different story (if we just looked at this WHOLE THING through the past 8-9 years.. we have..)
DJIA (2000 through 2008) = -19%
GOLD (2000 through 2008) = +241%
- Now follow me here bc this next part is SUPER IMPORTANT and I have explained this before but I will explain it again on this thread.
- Every 10 years STATISTICALLY AND HISTORICALLY
1. You can expect a 10% return in 10 years in the market
2. For every 10 years that we do NOT equal 10%, then NEXT 10 YEARS HISTORICALLY WILL YIELD US BACK TO OUR 10% AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS
So what does that mean?
It means that now we are prob -10% in the market (after the recent run up), the NEXT 10 YEARS HISTORICALLY AND STATISTICALLY will YIELD 20% to get
us BACK TO OUR AVERAGE of 10% PER EVERY 10 YEARS
So, when you account for that, it is telling you a couple things.
1. You have a great opportunity cost for not being invested all the time in the market.
2. When I say all the time, I do not mean FULLY INVESTED, but DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
3. NO ONE can time the market
4. You must always play for historical averages no matter how bad the world seems around you, thats how I knew to buy waay back at DOW 7200, bc
historically I have seen this EXACT trend play out, and it was 1974, and if you go back we had a pretty damn good market till early 80's after a
little shakeout in the mid 70's (expect the same thing again this time around)
5. The reason why I say you are 10000x too much in gold is because of all the previous, you will be losing ground to CPI and inflation when the market
is going to historically make its move and gold might move to 1500 lets say... but dont you think now after seeing the historical information that the
odds are much more in your favor of just dollar cost averaging into the marketplace?
Now I got this from another website, but the person that made this up drew some terrible conclusions IMO, but I will tell you what I see.
I see the historical price of gold at a high when the market is cheap relative. See, the average investor sees this ass bullish for gold, when its
the other way around. ITS ABOUT BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH, not getting worked into this fantasy about 5000 gold and all the BS that ensues down the
This chart is showing you that right now gold is at a PREMIUM to the market - NEVER BUY ANYTHING AT A PREMIUM when you know you can get it lower,
thats like buying futures contracts over night over fair value and just losing all your money when the market opens the other way on your ass in like
I promise you no big investors are staking big claims in gold right now, if they are they are either hedging their bets against the inverse of
something, or just feeding disinformation that happens way more than you think. I would like to take the example of a few guys on the trading floor
of the NYSE that said earlier this year they couldnt figure out why markets were going up and they would be short, while you know they were just
making a KILLING off the fools that were throwing short volume their way.
Same thing goes with sites called "goldbug".com... think about the angles here.. everyone is looking to make $ off you fools (not talking to anyone
in specific, but you know what I mean)
The market is always looking for a new suckers, and when I hear $hit about a "suckers rally" it makes me laugh because these suckers are up over 50%
if they were even in the NASDAQ let alone many 100% in certain stocks..
So im sure I left out a lot, and Im sure that I am not always right, but Im more right than wrong, and Im usually pretty confident before I post
anything like this on this board etc..