Java quake kills at least 33, injures scores

7.0-magnitude temblor off Indonesia collapses homes, burying families

JAKARTA, Indonesia - Indonesians ran screaming out of buildings when a major earthquake rocked the country Wednesday, killing more than 30 people and unleashing a mass of rock and mud that buried villagers alive in their homes.

The magnitude-7.0 temblor lasted nearly a minute and was felt hundreds of miles away. Many of the victims were in buildings that buckled during the jolt, and at least 10 died in their houses when a landslide slammed into their neighborhood. Dozens were reported missing and injured.

Thousands of panicked residents fled homes, malls and government offices throughout the country, some screaming in fright, when the shaking began in the middle of the work day.

www.msnbc.msn.com...

Unfortunately there were at least 33 dead and several injured from this earthquake in indonesia.

We keep having these sort of earthquakes more, and more frequent. Not to mention the increase in volcanic/magmatic activity.

Are we perhaps seen the precursor for something bigger?

Here is the count of 7.0+ earthquakes since 1973
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/fe3582985ecf.png[/atsimg]

I don't see a trend.

neic.usgs.gov...

[edit on 9/2/2009 by Phage]

humm..

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c0ce96da6b3c.png[/atsimg]

Worldwide Earthquakes [Magnitude 6 to 9.9] have increased by 47 percent in under 3 decades
A total of 1,085 earthquakes measuring magnitude 6 or greater occurred between 1980 to 1989, averaging 109 per year over the decade. In the 1990s the decadal total increased to 1,492 averaging at 149 major earthquake per year over the period.

Since January 1, 2000 [ see table below for the date and time] a total of 1,438 major earthquakes have so far occurred worldwide raising the annual total over the last 9 years to 160 with more than 12 and a half months to go to the decade’s end.

The increase from 109 to 160 major earthquakes per year in the 1980 to 2008 period translates to a rise of 47 percent in just under three decades.

feww.wordpress.com...


[edit on 2-9-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Should I really have to remind Phage that with increased, or even dramatic changes in Solar Activity, such as an increase in major Solar magnetic storms, etc, there is an increase in earthquake activity?

[edit on 2-9-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Studies such as.

Copyright © 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Variations of the cosmic ray fluxes as a possible earthquake precursor

A. L. Morozova, M. I. Pudovkin and T. V. Barliaeva

St. Petersburg University, St. Petersburg, Petrodvorets, 198904, Russia


Received 28 May 1999; accepted 31 August 1999. ; Available online 26 May 2000.

Abstract
Variations of the air pressure, cosmic ray fluxes, sunspot numbers, and interplanetary magnetic field in connection with strong earthquake occurrences are studied. The results of this investigation permits one to consider the variations of the cosmic rays as one of the possible cause of air pressure variations and one of the possible earthquake precursors.

[url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VPT-40BPTK5-H&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchSt rId=998861679&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=03f2066fc2c9ac17408e46a7c0937dba]www.sciencedirect.com[/url ]

BTW a dramatic decrease in Solar activity means an increase in cosmic ray flux from sources outside the Solar system, which also do cause an increase in seismic, and magmatic activity.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

You said "these sort of earthquakes". That's why I used 7.0. There is a great deal of difference between a 6.0 earthquake and a 7.0 earthquake.

The "Decadal Average" is a meaningless statistic (never mind the fact that they are missing a year for the current decade, but that doesn't stop them from using it). Why even use "decades", here's what happens if we shift the starting year. You don't really think the earthquakes pay attention to a calendar do you?
Decade Average
1984-1993 154
1994-2003 151
2004-2009 150
Look at that! The number of earthquakes is decreasing!

Here is what the statistics for 6.0+ earthquakes look like.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9a46b383dc3b.png[/atsimg]

The only trend I see is a general jump in the early 90's. I wonder if the use of the internet to ease the exchange of information and an increase in the number of seismographs worldwide has anything to do with that.

It looks like 2009 is shaping up to be a pretty quiet year. More than half way through and a total of 66 quakes.

[edit on 9/2/2009 by Phage]

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


There's a problem with what you are saying about earthquakes and solar activity. You said the number of earthquakes has been increasing. But we are now at solar minimum, solar activity has been declining for the past 7 to 8 years. So if earthquakes had been increasing it shows that the solar connection is wrong.



[edit on 9/2/2009 by Phage]

Originally posted by Phage

There's a problem with what you are saying about earthquakes and solar activity. You said the number of earthquakes has been increasing. But we are now at solar minimum, solar activity has been declining for the past 7 to 8 years. So if earthquakes had been increasing it shows that the solar connection is wrong.

When I said "this sort of earthquakes" I meant catastrophic ones, and yes a 6 can be catastrophic. Not only that but you claim that solar activity has been decreasing the past 7 to 8 years, when this is not true at all. Solar activity began decreasing by the end of 2005, not 6 or 7 years ago.

Sun's Currents of Fire Slow to Record Low
By Tony Phillips
Science@NASA
posted: 10 May 2006
05:04 pm ET

The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "It's off the bottom of the charts," he says. "This has important repercussions for future solar activity."

The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to perform one complete circuit. Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle, and that's why the slowdown is important.

www.space.com...



The above image is from.
wattsupwiththat.com...

BTW, like always you didn't read what I excerpted, it shows that "VARIATIONS" or "fluctuations" in solar activity activity has been found to cause earthquakes.

Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes
Simpson, John F.
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 3, p. 417-425.

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.

adsabs.harvard.edu...&PSL...3..417S

Another example.

Cosmic Influence on the Sun-Earth Environment
Saumitra Mukherjee
Geology and Remote Sensing, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University,
New Delhi-110067, India; E-mail: [email protected]; Tel. +91-11-26704312;
Fax +91-11-26704312
Received: 19 May 2008; in revised form: 2 June 2008 / Accepted: 29 November 2008 /
Published: 3 December 2008

Abstract: SOHO satellite data reveals geophysical changes before sudden changes in the Earth's Sun-Earth environment. The influence of extragalactic changes on the Sun as well as the Sun-Earth environment seems to be both periodic and episodic. The periodic changes in terms of solar maxima and minima occur every 11 years, whereas the episodic changes can happen at any time. Episodic changes can be monitored by cosmic ray detectors as a sudden increase or decrease of activity. During these solar and cosmic anomaly periods the environment of the Earth is affected. The Star-Sun-Earth connection has the potential to influence the thermosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere and lithosphere.

Initial correlation of the cosmic and Sun-Earth connection has shown the possibility of predicting earthquakes, sudden changes in atmospheric temperatures and erratic rainfall/snowfall patterns.

www.mdpi.com...

Yes, the above research does have to do with earthquakes too.

So once again Phage you are wrong, but of course you will not admit this like you always do when you are wrong.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

You said earthquake activity has been increasing for the past 30 years, based on a really stupid analysis built around "decades" (which includes the past 10 years). You said that with increased activity or dramatic changes in solar activity there is an increase in earthquake activity.

Here are plots of two direct indices of solar activity.
Both show a decline for the past 9 years, with a steady decline for the past 7.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6a7e23f59938.png[/atsimg]
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ba2eed5f4046.png[/atsimg]
Here is the plot of earthquakes greater than 6.0
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2e5ed7aab783.png[/atsimg]

Anthony Watts misunderstands the significance of the Ap Index. It is not a direct measurement of the Sun's magnetic field, it is a statistical analysis of activity in the Earth's magnetic field. It's purpose is to provide a means of classifying and counting geomagnetic storms.

Ap* is defined as the earliest occurring maximum 24-hour value obtained by computing an 8-point running average of successive 3-hour ap indices during a geomagnetic storm event without regard to the starting and ending times of the UT-day. It is uniquely associated with the storm event.

www.ngdc.noaa.gov...
There are some statistical problems with the index but what the drop in 2005 shows is that the geomagnetic storms, the fluctuations in the magnetosphere which supposedly induce earthquakes, decreased. According to you, this should have produced a decrease in earthquake activity.

We know solar activity has been low but there has been no "sudden" change. It is following its roughly 11 year cycle. It has been gradually decreasing for 9 years and has just recently showed some slight signs of beginning to increase.

You are wrong about an increase in earthquake activity. There is no increasing trend. The only increase was in the early 1990's (as a result of increased levels of reporting). Nor has there been a decrease since 2001-2002 as there should be if there is an identifiable correlation with solar activity.

[edit on 9/3/2009 by Phage]

Originally posted by Phage

You said earthquake activity has been increasing for the past 30 years, based on a really stupid analysis built around "decades" (which includes the past 10 years). You said that with increased activity or dramatic changes in solar activity there is an increase in earthquake activity.

No...read again what I said, and what RESEARCH from real scientists has to say about it, and not your paintbrushing, and dismissing what has been happening by posting a graph which clearly represents the solar cycle, as if that would show a decrease in the amount of solar radiation which had been increasing during times of quiet sunspot activity...

Kind of an amateurish mistake, or if you know quite a disengenious act to post a graph showing the "SOLAR CYCLE" as proof that the activity of the Sun had been dramatically decreasing in general, when studies have shown that the activity of the Sun during times of quiet sunspot activity, or during Solar Minimum, had been increasing.

You are trying to compare oranges to apples here, and if I knew any better I would say you are trying to deceive members as to what was really occurring.

This is what you should be showing, and before you make any more amateurish mistakes, do read entirely what is said in that research report.

• The ACRIM TSI composite uses the Nimbus7/ERB ACRIM gap ratio and exhibits a 0.037 percent per decade trend between the minima of cycles 21 to 23. A trend of this magnitude, sustained over many decades or centuries, could be a significant climate forcing.

• Recent phenomenological analyses indicate a greater climate change sensitivity to solar variations than previously indicated by Global Circulation Models. Climate sensitivity to solar variability must be understood to evaluate the relative effects of natural and anthropogenic contributions on climate change.

• TSI in the recent minimum (between solar cycles 23 and 24) is lower than the last and only slightly higher than the cycle 21 – 22 minimum. The ACRIM composite trend to higher TSI during cycles 21 – 23 and then back to approximately the level of the cycle 21 – 22 minimum may be the signature of a Hale cycle.

• The PMOD composite approach uses the ERBS/ERBE ACRIM gap ratio, a different subset of the satellite TSI database, and modified Nimbus7/ERB and ACRIM1 results (based on the predictions of TSI proxy models) but finds no significant trend over the cycle 21 to 23 period.

• TSI proxy models are not competitive in precision or accuracy with satellite TSI observations. Their use in constructing the PMOD composite convolutes the relatively high uncertainties of the models with the more precise observational data and conforms the PMOD composite to the proxy model rather than providing the most valid interpretation of the extant TSI observational database.

• The absence of a trend in the PMOD composite and any composite based on the ERBS/ERBE ACRIM gap ratio has been shown to be an artifact of uncorrected degradation of ERBS/ERBE results during the gap.1

1 Willson R. C., and A. V. Mordvinov, 2003, Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21-23: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 30, p. 1199-1202. (doi: 10.1029/2002GL016038).
................

Composite TSI Trend depends on choice of ACRIM gap ratio
1.
ACRIM composite, based on Nimbus7/ERB ACRIM gap ratio. Yields a + 0.04 %/decade trend between solar cycles 21 – 23 minima.
2.
An alternative ACRIM composite, using the ERBS/ERBE ACRIM gap ratio, yields a negligible trend between solar cycles 21 – 23 minima, similar to PMOD.
3.
The PMOD composite, based on the ERBS/ERBE ACRIM gap ratio, and yields a negligible trend between

..............
Conclusions
•
The ACRIM-gap dilemma for composite satellite TSI observations can also be resolved by bridging the ACRIM gap with TSI derived from Krivova’s [2007]1 proxy model relating variations of the surface distribution of solar magnetic flux.2
•
ACRIM-KBS07 and PMOD-KBS07 TSI composites are constructed using ACRIM and PMOD original values except for the ACRIM gap, where Krivova modeled TSI is used to connect ACRIM1 and ACRIM2 results.
•
Both ACRIM-KBS07 and PMOD-KBS07 composites demonstrate a significant TSI trend of 0.033 (+/- 0.004) %/decade between the solar activity minima of 1986 and 1996.
•
This trend is NOT significantly different from the 0.037 %/decade trend in the ACRIM composite [Willson & Mordvinov, 2003] 3.
•
This finding supports the contention that the ERBS/ERBE results are flawed by uncorrected degradation during the ACRIM gap. [Willson 1997] 3
•
This finding refutes the upward adjustment of Nimbus7/ERB ACRIM gap results used to construct the PMOD. [Frohlich and Lean 1998] 4

www.acrim.com...

It is disengenious to show a graph of the Solar Cycle as proof that solar activity in general had been decreasing, when it is a known fact that TSI during solar minima can increase or decrease irrespective of the Solar Cycle, and this increase, or decrease during solar minima does affect the climate, as well as earthquake activity.

You have claimed in the past that cosmic ray flux from sources outside the Solar System cannot influence the climate and weather on Earth, and I showed peer reviewed research papers which refute your claims.

You have claimed in the past that solar activity cannot cause earthquakes, and i showed peer reviewed research which refutes your claim and shows the contrary to what you claim.

Now you are posting graphs of the solar cycle as if that was proof that the activity of the Sun had dramatically decreased for the past 7 years and you want to claim Anthony Watts doesn't know what he is talking about?...

Anyway, we are starting to deviate from the subjet of the post, but yes, i have shown several times that fluctuations in the Sun's activity influences eathquakes, as well as the climate on Earth, and during periods of Solar minima cosmic ray fluxes from sources outside the Solar system do affect more the Earth, it's climate as well as seismic and magmatic activity.

As to your claim that there has been no suden change in solar activity and that it is just following the normal solar cycle pattern, you have got to be kidding..

The Sun's activity is now at the lowest is has been for over a century, and there are no signs whatsoever that it's activity is increasing like you are claiming, yet you want to claim "this is normal"?....



[edit on 3-9-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse

Originally posted by Phage

You said earthquake activity has been increasing for the past 30 years, based on a really stupid analysis built around "decades" (which includes the past 10 years). You said that with increased activity or dramatic changes in solar activity there is an increase in earthquake activity.

No...read again what I said

OK:

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
humm..

(followed by stupid analysis)

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Should I really have to remind Phage that with increased, or even dramatic changes in Solar Activity, such as an increase in major Solar magnetic storms, etc, there is an increase in earthquake activity?

----------------------------

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Kind of an amateurish mistake, or if you know quite a disengenious act to post a graph showing the "SOLAR CYCLE" as proof that the activity of the Sun had been dramatically decreasing in general, when studies have shown that the activity of the Sun during times of quiet sunspot activity, or during Solar Minimum, had been increasing.

I didn't post the graphs as proof that activity of the Sun had been "dramatically decreasing in general". I didn't say anything about any "general" trend in solar activity. I was talking about the solar cycle:

Originally posted by Phage
We know solar activity has been low but there has been no "sudden" change. It is following its roughly 11 year cycle. It has been gradually decreasing for 9 years and has just recently showed some slight signs of beginning to increase.

And yes, it has been showing some slight signs of beginning to increase.
spaceweather.com...
spaceweather.com...

But aren't you a bit confused? First you say:

studies have shown that the activity of the Sun during times of quiet sunspot activity, or during Solar Minimum, had been increasing.

Then you say:

The Sun's activity is now at the lowest is has been for over a century

If activity during solar minimum has been increasing, why is it the lowest it's been in a century?

------------

First we were talking about an increase in earthquake frequency. I showed evidence that there has been no increase.

Then we were talking about geomagnetic induced earthquakes. Since geomagnetic activity is directly tied to solar activity I showed graphs indicating that earthquake frequency does not seem to be affected by the solar cycle.

Now we're talking about solar irradiance? I never said anything about irradiance and neither did you until now. Can you explain how a gradual decrease in solar irradiance is related to a non existent increase in earthquake frequency or are you just going to change the subject again?

Originally posted by Phage
(followed by stupid analysis)

You better learn how to make a proper argument, I said a lot more, and your stupid attempts at dismissing the information, plus your patronizing comments only show that once again you were caught making mistakes, but like always you do not admit your mistakes.

Originally posted by Phage
I didn't post the graphs as proof that activity of the Sun had been "dramatically decreasing in general". I didn't say anything about any "general" trend in solar activity. I was talking about the solar cycle:

Then why did you post it? There is a lot more to solar activity than the Solar Cycle, and if you read the research papers i gave they clearly state and I quote once again:...

Variations of the air pressure, cosmic ray fluxes, sunspot numbers, and interplanetary magnetic field in connection with strong earthquake occurrences are studied. The results of this investigation permits one to consider the variations of the cosmic rays as one of the possible cause of air pressure variations and one of the possible earthquake precursors.

link


Obviously you don't take a lot of time to read research work you happen to disagree with. Solar activity is not the only force that influences earthquakes. Variations of air pressure, and cosmic ray fluxes also come and are caused by influences from outside the Solar System which affects the dynamics of our Solar System, including the Earth.

Originally posted by Phage

But aren't you a bit confused? First you say:

The only one confused is you. Again, solar activity is not limited to the Solar Cycle...

Originally posted by Phage

First we were talking about an increase in earthquake frequency. I showed evidence that there has been no increase.

And i showed evidence to the contrary of your claims.

Originally posted by Phage

Then we were talking about geomagnetic induced earthquakes. Since geomagnetic activity is directly tied to solar activity I showed graphs indicating that earthquake frequency does not seem to be affected by the solar cycle.

.... It is not only tied to increased solar activity... A decrease in solar activity like has been occurring lowers the defenses of the Solar System and the Earth which also affects not only the climate but seismic, and volcanic activity also.

Originally posted by Phage

Now we're talking about solar irradiance? I never said anything about irradiance and neither did you until now. Can you explain how a gradual decrease in solar irradiance is related to a non existent increase in earthquake frequency or are you just going to change the subject again?

Solar irradiance is directly tied to ALL activity in the Sun... if solar irradiance had been increasing it means an increase in all other solar activity even at the lower end of a Solar Cycle.

I am not talking about the present state of the Sun, but before 2005 when the Solar Cycle was nearing minima, yet there was high solar activity and we were witnessing some of the most powerful sunspots in almost a century.

BTW, the only one trying to change the subject is you, apparently trying to imply that solar activity is only tied to the Solar Cycle.



[edit on 3-9-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Of course there is also this, which I posted already.

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity.

Link

Here is some more information detailing what I am talking about.

SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL AND CLIMATIC PHENOMENA IN RELATION TO SOLAR INERTIAL MOTION
Journal Surveys in Geophysics
Publisher Springer Netherlands
ISSN 0169-3298 (Print) 1573-0956 (Online)
Issue Volume 18, Numbers 2-3 / May, 1997
DOI 10.1023/A:1006527724221
Pages 131-146
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Monday, October 25, 2004


CHARVÀTOVÀ1

(1) Bočnì II, Geophysical Institute AS CR, 141 31 Praha 4, Czech Republic


Abstract The time series of solar and volcanic activities have been processed to show, mostly by means of statistical characteristics, the exceptional and recurring pattern of these phenomena in the intervals of the exceptional and recurring pattern of solar motion, i.e. in the intervals of the Sun''s motion along the trefoils which reoccur in steps of 178.7 years. Nearly the same sets of five sunspot cycles have been found in the latest trefoil intervals (1730–1780 and 1910–1960), their length being constant and equal to 10 years (cycles No. 15–19). The steadily attenuated volcanic activity have been pointed out in the three latest trefoil intervals. The long-term maxima of surface air temperature occured in the central decades of the trefoil intervals. The results indicate a primary role of solar motion in a causal chain of ST-relations and a need of taking the Solar System as a whole into account to explain climatic changes. The solar motion can be computed in advance. Predictive assesments, so far in form of analogies, have been made: Because the solar motion in the next decades will be chaotic, lower and longer solar cycles (with irregular length), ocurrence of huge volcanic events and a decrease of global surface air temperature can be expected.

www.springerlink.com...

[edit on 3-9-2009 by ElectricUniverse]