posted on Aug, 31 2009 @ 11:33 PM
There are going to be a lot of disappointed people on this site when Palin doesn't start running for president in two years. She's simply cashing in
now on her name, and her loyal fan base. And I hope she makes a lot of money, because she'll never be president.
Sarah Palin is her own worst enemy. Newt Gingrich recognized her great weakness. Conventional wisdom states that Sarah Palin is intellectually
shallow, and overly sensitive to political sniping. That perception of her as solidified in the last year, and she has done nothing to self correct
it. Her public war of words with Letterman, regardless of the outcome, regardless of the the PR buzz for both parties, helped shaped negative public
opinion towards her. In short, Palin played into her enemies' hand, by allowed them to create a caricature out of her. They turned her into a joke,
and she did nothing to help her situation by going on SNL and getting mocked.
Gingrich was right in advising Palin to rebrand herself, because the brand name itself is damaged. Instead of listening to Gingrich, and doing what
Nixon did in the sixties, traveling the country making serious policy speeches, and studying social events. Then becoming an expert on one or two
topics of national interest, she did the exact the opposite. She's relying on personality, and not skills. She twitters, instead doing Meet the
Press. She quits mid term, without offering any reasonable explanation as to why. It is difficult for the public to take her seriously. And it is that
difficulty that ultimately dooms her political career.
Her resume reads thin, because it is thin. And she appears intellectually shallow, because she has shown no interest in being intellectually
After the fiasco of quitting her governorship mid term, her presidential aspirations evaporated. Palin is certainly supported by 75% of Republicans
now, but nearly 60% of Independents and 80% of Democrats won't vote for her under any circumstances. And, that's without opposition commercials
playing 4 times an hour, every day for 6 months.
Given the demographic disadvantages currently facing the GOP, the road is hard, and long, with a pretty quick end in sight. With the hispanic voting
bloc growing in New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado, it's looking more and more unlikely that NW and CO will turn blue any time soon. Palin might
recapture North Carolina, but not Iowa. Not Ohio. Probably not Virginia.
More over, she would still have to defeat Huckabee and Romney, Pawlenty, and probably Charlie Crist, in what promises to be a very brutal, very long,
and very bloody GOP primary. There is an entrenched Republican network that is resisting her very existence. What you'll end with is a wounded
candidate, who just got torn to pieces, who will then have to convince dissatisfied Republican supporters of the other primary candidates, Hispanics,
Blacks, and Liberals to vote against their own best interests to unseat a still very popular president. And that's not going to happen.
There aren't enough conservatives alone to elect a president. They are an ever shrinking electorate that is getting smaller and smaller every single
day. That means that they will have to build a coalition if they want to win. That means giving up certain key issues. If you want Hispanics, it's
immigration. If you want liberals, you have to give up on the war and health care. Palin is 100% pro-life, even in cases of rape. How do you get women
voters to go along with that? How do you win the great lakes without union voters?
Health Care isn't the silver bullet that the GOP is looking for. It's astroturfing, and it might make great copy on Youtube, but in reality, it's
not really moving anyone. Polling numbers for Obama, and the GOP have largely remained unaffected, besides a short term drop, which will be erased
when the final bill is actually passed - whether through reconciliation or a watered down version of the house bill.
The most important thing to note, when in 3 years, the nation has not slid into fascism. when the nation has not locked Republicans up in train cars.
When death panels have not killed grandma, or confiscated firearms, voters will remember how crazy and baseless these charges are, and they will be
unforgiving in the voting booth. Voters do not like being publicly perceived as supporting fringe extremism and sedition. Those who support such over
the top rhetoric should note this, and note this well. There's really nowhere else for this type of angry rhetoric to go, except outright calls for
violence, and there are three years to go before the next presidential election.
Republicans will not be rewarded for extremism, and unless they start coalition building like tomorrow, Obama will win a second term.