Quake Prediction: Sept 2-5

Could it be this quake that it is reffering too?

www.abovetopsecret.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

this predictions seems to hold true, 7.3 magnitude quake hit.

reply to post by nydsdan


Things that come out of the data: Earthquake Maybe 34th or 38th degree parallel Images of building collapse still being watched weeks later Sept 2 - 5 with highest probability on the 3rd / 4th

So what does Webbot/Ure mean, is that 34th parallel North or South ?
Rgrds,

reply to post by LightWonder


Huh??

this predictions seems to hold true

If you count predicting it's gonna rain during monsoon season, yes this prediction is right on....

1/3/09 Near North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.6 and 7.4
1/15/09 East of Kuril Islands 7.4
2/11/09 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 7.2
3/19/09 Tonga Region 7.6
5/28/09 Offshore Honduras 7.2
7/15/09 Off W. Coast of S. Island New Zealand 7.6
8/9/09 Izu Islands, Japan Region 7.1
8/10/09 Andaman Islands, India Region 7.6

What's so special about this one??

Why did the Webbot pick this one as significant?? Or better, why did we all, subconsciously, feel that this was going to be a major event??

If anything i would suspect that the quake that hit central Italy the 6th of April this year ,which killed 295 people, would have had a bigger impact on our subconscious. And that was only a 6.3 quake......

Like i always say...location, location, lcation.

This has nothing to do with predicting. If i flip a coin and predict it will be heads it will make me a prophet half the time......

Next "major' quake will be round the 4th of October....why???

Next Full Moon dates 2009

Year Month Day Time Day of week
2009 Jan 11 03:28 Sun
2009 Feb 9 14:51 Mon
2009 Mar 11 02:40 Wed
2009 Apr 9 14:58 Thu
2009 May 9 04:03 Sat
2009 Jun 7 18:13 Sun
2009 Jul 7 09:23 Tue
2009 Aug 6 00:57 Thu
2009 Sep 4 16:05 Fri
2009 Oct 4 06:11 Sun
2009 Nov 2 19:15 Mon
2009 Dec 2 07:33 Wed
2009 Dec 31 19:15 Thu

Peace

Powerful quake strikes Indonesia

"INDONESIA'S seismology agency said oday it had recorded a powerful 7.3 earthquake near the main island of Java."

www.news.com.au...

Originally posted by operation mindcrime
reply to post by nydsdan

 

Did you just call me immature??

That's funny, this used to be my autograph :"Oh, I know - because you seem to only be able to post immature comments on anything!" by the same QA.......

Well, it could be one of two things that could be why I used that word, but this is all subjective.. for starters, you were once again talking about QA - somebody you relentlessly pick on - in a thread which has nothing to do with her. Secondly, maybe at one time I saw that quote by her in your signature (another really mature thing to do BTW) and that resonated with me subliminally.

Besides, I believe my exact quote was "I've never felt the satisfaction others do at 'proving' themselves or anything. A bit immature if you ask me. Then again, these are the intarwebs so immaturity is the status quo. "

This is all completely off-topic anyway, and I apologize if you thought I was calling YOU immature. It was just parts of your first post that came across that way. I've seen your contribution in other threads and I enjoy your participation and I really hate getting into the details about individual members. You brought something to the table with the full moon theory and I do appreciate that as well.

Baaaack on topic now... Yes, we all saw the magnitude 7 that hit in Java. Is this the one they were talking about? Well, I don't know. But I would like to weigh in on a few things.

Originally posted by Absum!
So is just getting above 6.8 is a big deal to the web bot, why did it not predict these?

Magnitude 7.6 - ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2009 August 10 19:55:39 UTC

Magnitude 7.1 - IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
2009 August 09 10:55:55 UTC

Magnitude 6.9 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA
2009 August 03 17:59:56 UTC

Magnitude 7.6 - OFF WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, N.Z.
2009 July 15 09:22:32 UTC

With so many quakes daily, there is always a good chance of latching on to one as "IT". I say give me a time within 1 hour and location within 100 miles, then I will be ready to believe.

Excellent point. I am guessing that one possibility is that the theory behind web bot is that it pulls off of human emotional response which supposedly leaks from the future event into our thoughts and affects or vocabulary. Sorry, this may not be really clear, but the point is that it is forecasting not the event itself, but the human reaction to the event. So if there is an earthquake, that is fine and dandy. It is an entirely different thing if there is a strong earthquake on land, people die and the masses that read internet news are looking at images and videos of buildings falling down.

So it appears that in order to qualify as the event predicted, it must result in loss of life, news coverage, and imagery of buildings falling down. How many earthquakes per year meet that criteria? I do not know the answer. My guess is that giving a 4 day range and having a quake which meets this criteria to occur within those 4 days is at least worth looking into.

I understand the desire for a detailed prediction with the exact hour. Right now the technology does not work that way, but maybe this potential 'hit' will encourage more research into this area. The web bot is not mystical, it is not a "psychic" asking for money, it is technology. That is what intrigues me the most because there may be a solid scientific reason behind it and that could open the doors to many other things (including conspiracy theories regarding if governments already posses this technology).

So does the 7 in Java qualify? It is pretty darn close. I am going to do the math on how many 6.8+ quakes on land result in loss of life and are reported on the front pages of CNN, BBC etc annually and then we can come up with the odds of guessing this date.

As operation mindcrime pointed out, this may be a trivial prediction given the time of year, full moon and current activity. My goal is to determine if the science behind the web bot is legit or if the guys making these predictions are just making educated guesses to string people along.

Originally posted by operation mindcrime

1/3/09 Near North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.6 and 7.4
1/15/09 East of Kuril Islands 7.4
2/11/09 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 7.2
3/19/09 Tonga Region 7.6
5/28/09 Offshore Honduras 7.2
7/15/09 Off W. Coast of S. Island New Zealand 7.6
8/9/09 Izu Islands, Japan Region 7.1
8/10/09 Andaman Islands, India Region 7.6
....
Next "major' quake will be round the 4th of October....why???

Next Full Moon dates 2009

Year Month Day Time Day of week
2009 Jan 11 03:28 Sun
2009 Feb 9 14:51 Mon
2009 Mar 11 02:40 Wed
2009 Apr 9 14:58 Thu
2009 May 9 04:03 Sat
2009 Jun 7 18:13 Sun
2009 Jul 7 09:23 Tue
2009 Aug 6 00:57 Thu
2009 Sep 4 16:05 Fri
2009 Oct 4 06:11 Sun
2009 Nov 2 19:15 Mon
2009 Dec 2 07:33 Wed
2009 Dec 31 19:15 Thu

Peace

I think you may be on to something, but not definitive. Let's stack up the dates of the quakes and find which ones are +/- 3 days from a full moon according to the data you posted:

1/3/09 Near North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.6 and 7.4 MISS
1/15/09 East of Kuril Islands 7.4 -4 Days - CLOSE
2/11/09 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 7.2 +2 Days - HIT
3/19/09 Tonga Region 7.6 +8 Days - MISS
5/28/09 Offshore Honduras 7.2 MISS
7/15/09 Off W. Coast of S. Island New Zealand 7.6 MISS
8/9/09 Izu Islands, Japan Region 7.1 +3 Days - HIT
8/10/09 Andaman Islands, India Region 7.6 +4 Days - CLOSE

So, of the 8 quakes recorded this year: 2 HIT, 2 were CLOSE, and 4 MISSED. Not quite calling heads on a coin flip, but not too far off.

You do bring up a good point about the Italy quake that killed a lot of people. One would expect that would have come through in the prediction. Something to think about..

Originally posted by nydsdan
Well, it could be one of two things that could be why I used that word, but this is all subjective.. for starters, you were once again talking about QA - somebody you relentlessly pick on - in a thread which has nothing to do with her.

Then why do you bring up Phage in your OP when he has clearly nothing to do with this aswell?? Practice what you preach, my friend!!!

This is all completely off-topic anyway, and I apologize if you thought I was calling YOU immature.

Fair enough. Dropping the off-topic nonsence......

It was just parts of your first post that came across that way.

Dito...

Peace

Originally posted by nydsdan
I think you may be on to something, but not definitive. Let's stack up the dates of the quakes and find which ones are +/- 3 days from a full moon according to the data you posted:

1/3/09 Near North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.6 and 7.4 MISS
1/15/09 East of Kuril Islands 7.4 -4 Days - CLOSE
2/11/09 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 7.2 +2 Days - HIT
3/19/09 Tonga Region 7.6 +8 Days - MISS
5/28/09 Offshore Honduras 7.2 MISS
7/15/09 Off W. Coast of S. Island New Zealand 7.6 MISS
8/9/09 Izu Islands, Japan Region 7.1 +3 Days - HIT
8/10/09 Andaman Islands, India Region 7.6 +4 Days - CLOSE

So, of the 8 quakes recorded this year: 2 HIT, 2 were CLOSE, and 4 MISSED. Not quite calling heads on a coin flip, but not too far off.

I only posted the quakes from 2009 which were above magnitute 7. Believe me there were way more than 8 quakes this year and only the 5/28/09 Offshore Honduras 7.2 and 1/3/09 Near North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.6 counted 12 fatalities.

So if the webbot can actually tap into our ability to see into the future it would most certainly not be the magnitute of the quake but the effect it will have on the observer......(aka the casualties and destruction we would see)

In your OP you say the webbot guys conclude that the magnitude of this predicted quake may be 6.8 - 8+.....

So i ask you, is this just a false conclusion or a bit of fear mongering??

Peace

Edit for typos, as usual....

[edit on 2/9/2009 by operation mindcrime]

Originally posted by operation mindcrime

Originally posted by nydsdan
Well, it could be one of two things that could be why I used that word, but this is all subjective.. for starters, you were once again talking about QA - somebody you relentlessly pick on - in a thread which has nothing to do with her.

Then why do you bring up Phage in your OP when he has clearly nothing to do with this aswell?? Practice what you preach, my friend!!!

I should not even respond to this, but the reason I brought up Phage is because he is the author of the failed predictions thread and I was giving him credit. I greatly respect him as an excellent debunker and I was in no way speaking of him in a disparaging or negative manner.

Citing somebody and giving them credit in a positive or constructive manner is completely different from belittling or poking fun at somebody. I think we both know this.

I only posted the quakes from 2009 which were above magnitute 7. Believe me there were way more than 8 quakes this year and only the 5/28/09 Offshore Honduras 7.2 and 1/3/09 Near North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.6 counted 12 fatalities.

That was clear. The scope of what we are looking at in this thread are 6.8 to 8+ so I suppose we are only missing the ones 6.8 - 6.9. Given that the quake in Java was a 7.0, we are still talking apples and apples, are we not?

In your OP you say the webbot guys conclude that the magnitude of this predicted quake may be 6.8 - 8+.....

So i ask you, is this just a false conclusion or a bit of fear mongering??

Java quake: initially reported as 7.4, revised to 7.0. According to BBC News: Deadly Earthquake hits Indonesia the death toll is currently 33 and the picture on the top news portion of the front page is of a collapsed structure.

If you are asking my opinion I would say that if this is all we have between now and the 5th then it is still a hit but not nearly as significant as I felt they were predicting.

Now as far as this big bad FEAR MONGERING people get in an uproar about... George Ure wrote on Monday:

The three high immediacy values indicate the increased chance of a major earthquake this week (Sep 2-5, more likely 3-4) which will be large enough (>6.8 to 8.0+) that a couple of weeks after the quake we'll still be watching imagery of buildings falling into their foundations.
...
Along about Thursday or Friday is when the data seems to peak. Quake could be Turkey/Pakistan/Asia/China because of the time delay in the pictures, or around latitude 34 north but that data's very broad, so anything south of the SF area latitude-wise seems possible. And may not be North lat. See the problem?

Now, if you read that and have an 'OH NOES, WE'RE GONNA DIE' reaction, then yes it is indeed fear mongering.

If you read it and go 'hey, these guys say they have a technology which can predict future events, if what they say is true, I may look into it a little bit more' then I would say you have a fair degree of intellectual curiosity.

Now that this thread is out of Fragile Earth and into Predictions, I may as well get into the rest of the predictions that came along with this quake one. I will post the quote directly from George Ure because in my opinion the following could be considered fear mongering:

Then about a week later (shading toward September 7-11 there's an increased risk of 'terrorism' events (explosions, no further detail or clarity yet) and then around September 13-15 a 'sudden/surprising' hurricane coming ashore in the Southeast USA.
----
Actionable? Maybe not. Let me explain: The problem with all of this is that these are statistical probabilities based on shifts in language and may or may not actually happen. Secondly, they are not specifically actionable except insofar as people in SoCal and around New Madrid may wish to have earthquake kits topped off with fresh water. That comes up on my list this week, even though we're nowhere near a quake-zone. At least yet.

Same thing with terrorism risks elevating around September 7-11th: Not enough clarity to be actionable and may not even be in the US, since only the terra entity has been processed so far, so it could be a few days before we find out if that shows in the PopUSA data when that portion of the model is run.

Then there's the 'sudden/surprising' hurricane around Sept 13-15 in the SE USA. Again, about all you can do is buy a couple of blue tarps and have the generator ready; this one threatens to cause some degree of Diaspora and we should be treated to visuals of FEMA's response in KatRita kind of fashion by say the 20th or so.

I just find the thing as intriguing science. What if there is something to this and it can be better refined to yield much more accurate results? Hmm.

Originally posted by nydsdan
I should not even respond to this, but the reason I brought up Phage is because he is the author of the failed predictions thread and I was giving him credit. I greatly respect him as an excellent debunker and I was in no way speaking of him in a disparaging or negative manner.

Citing somebody and giving them credit in a positive or constructive manner is completely different from belittling or poking fun at somebody. I think we both know this.

I would so very much like to go into this but that would be immature, right??

That was clear. The scope of what we are looking at in this thread are 6.8 to 8+ so I suppose we are only missing the ones 6.8 - 6.9. Given that the quake in Java was a 7.0, we are still talking apples and apples, are we not?

I'm not gonna debate wether or not the full moon causes more earthquakes, this is a known fact...

"Syzygy" refers to the alignment of three celestial objects. Syzygy of the sun, Earth, and moon occur twice a month, at the full and new moons. At such times, gravitational forces are at a maximum, especially when the bodies are close together, Berkland said.

Can the Moon Cause Earthquakes?

Now as far as this big bad

FEAR MONGERING

people get in an uproar about... George Ure wrote on Monday:

The three high immediacy values indicate the increased chance of a major earthquake this week (Sep 2-5, more likely 3-4) which will be large enough (>6.8 to 8.0+) that a couple of weeks after the quake we'll still be watching imagery of buildings falling into their foundations.
...

Now, if you read that and have an 'OH NOES, WE'RE GONNA DIE' reaction, then yes it is indeed fear mongering.

No, i'm talking about the fact that the webbot works on the principle of our own precognitive ability and the fact we subcontiously put this in writting. This i am willing to accept to a certain point but how in g*d's name can they predict a magnitute??
"Major quake" in this context would mean a quake that has a big impact on us as a collective...

If you read it and go 'hey, these guys say they have a technology which can predict future events, if what they say is true, I may look into it a little bit more' then I would say you have a fair degree of intellectual curiosity.

And if i say 'hey, these guys say they have a technology which tries to predict future events but only has a succes ratio of 25%, which is less than flipping a coin, and what they say could also have been predicted without a webbot based on knowledge of Syzygy and other natural facts.' would you then still say you have a fair degree of intellectual curiosity??

I just find the thing as intriguing science. What if there is something to this and it can be better refined to yield much more accurate results? Hmm.

May i callenge you with a question about this whole thing??

As you know webbot uses keywords which are of a decidedly negative bent so the bots pick these words up and the words around that particular word in terms of context text.....why is the positive side being ignored?? I guess those reports sell a lot better with a fair amount of doom and gloom
The ideal scenario would be to gather pure data and have the data decide what the keywords are based on the number of instances of that particular word.

So why only the negative charged words??

Peace

Edit - typos!!!!!!!!!

[edit on 2/9/2009 by operation mindcrime]

Ohhh come on nydsdan,

That wasn't such a hard question??

I'm surpised to see that the prediction-crew finally gets a "sorta" hit on their predictions and suddenly this thread becomes more quiet than the annual bbq of people that took an oath of silence......

Oh well...just goes to show i still don't understand the elegant art of discussion very well....still learning though.

Peace

Star and a flag.
Very interesting and accurate prediction, can`t believe more people haven`t taken notice.

reply to post by operation mindcrime


Please not that this Decemmber is a "blue moon".

That is to say, 2 full moons in one month.