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Retail maven Howard Davidowitz paid another visit to Tech Ticker this week. And despite signs of improvement in consumer confidence and retail stocks rising, Davidowitz is steadfast in his belief the consumer is dead.
Rather than summarize, let me just highlight some of his best one-liners:
- "The retail business is terrible... It's almost all negative."
- "We're going to close hundreds of thousands of stores."
On the consumer:
- "They’re still over leveraged, they're losing jobs, their credit has been cut back."
- "We are in the tank forever. As a country we are out of control, we're in a death spiral."
On the stock market:
- "We're in terrible shape. That's what the fundamentals tell me. I can't explain the stock market."
But it's not all gloom and doom, believe it or not. Davidowitz, who runs a retail consulting firm Davidowitz and Associates, thinks certain discount retailers, grocers, drug store chains and a select few department stores can survive and prosper in the future.
Most notably he likes the "extreme discounters" like Family Dollar, Dollar Tree (which was up almost 5% Tuesday after the company raised its outlook) and 99 Cents Only Stores. And, in the department store sector, he says, Kohl's will "be the only winner" because of their cost controls.
Prior to founding his own firm in 1981, Mr. Davidowitz was a Principal at Ernst (now Ernst & Young) where he was Director of National Retail Consulting Services and Chairman of the Retail Committee.. He has a B.S. and M.A from New York University and resides in Manhattan.
As a retail expert, he appears regularly on Bloomberg ( TV and Radio), Fox News, CNBC, CBS, NBC, ABC, MSNBC, NPR Radio and a number of other U. S. and Canadian TV and radio outlets. He is frequently quoted in the national and regional business press including The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, The New York Times, Forbes, Fortune, Investors Business Daily, The Washington Post and a host of other newspaper, business and trade publications.
The firm has worked with numerous investment firms with retail interests, including Banker's Trust, General Atlantic, M & I Bank, Meridian Bank, Normandy Asset Management, Odyssey Partners, Trump Group (Julius & Eddie Trump) and Vornado.
Segments served include retail and retail-related organizations of all types and sizes:
Diamonds (Dayton Hudson)
Hudsons (Dayton Hudson)
The White House
Barbara Moss (Moray)
Cherry & Webb
Franklin Simon (City Stores)
Junction House of Jeans
Miller's Outpost (Hub)
Narragansett Clothing Co.
Ritz Department Stores
Salkin & Linoff
Sheplers Western Stores
Strawberry/Chuckles (A & E)
Ups & Downs
You & You Stores
Associated Merch. (AMC)
Eastern Mountain Sports
Kays Home Center
Ketchum & Co.
Menswear Retail of Amer.
Modern Age Furniture
Mutual Buying Syndicate
Oshman's Sporting Goods
Pitney Bowes Alpex
Seiko Corp. of America
Seligman & Latz
Toys R Us
United Sporting Goods
US General Supply
W & J Sloane (City Stores)
After Six (Morville)
B & B Lorry's
Bartman & Bixer
Hughes & Hatcher
Phillips Van Heusen
Finlay Fine Jewelry
Spritzer & Fuhrman
Van Cleef & Arpels
Ann & Hope
Apparel Buying (Woolco)
Fishers Big Wheel
Interstate Dept. Stores
Rockower Bros. (Woolco)
Two Guys (Vornado)
Who would facilitate this?
The part of "Green" that I though could save us is an entirely new energy source not dependent on fossil fuels. You are correct about just changing from dirty industries to green ones, but I am referring to something entirely new.
Is it so hard to understand that our way of life is flawed and doomed to fail?
Edit: There is a reason Greed is considered a sin.
He believes that, out of 100 members of the US Senate, at least one should have real world experience in finance and economics.
Agricultural & food products: -18.10%
Grain : -22.90%
Farm products excl. grain: -26.50%
Grain mill products (1) : -8.30%
Food products: -13.60%
Petroleum products: -14.70%
Forest products: -27.80%
Primary forest products (2): -32.40%
Lumber & wood products: -38.20%
Pulp & paper products: -20.90%
Metallic ores and metals: -51.20%
Metallic ores (3): -58.10%
Primary metal products (4): -54.30%
Motor vehicles & parts: -49.10%
Nonmetallic minerals & prod.: -23.10%
Crushed stone, gravel, sand: -22.80%
Nonmetallic minerals (5): -25.10%
Stone, clay & glass prod. (6): -22.40%
Waste & scrap materials (7): -36.80%
All other carloads: -0.50%
TOTAL ALL CARLOADS: -19.00%
(1) - flour, animal feed, corn syrup, corn starch, soybean meal, etc.
(2) - wood raw materials such as pulpwood and wood chips
(3) - overwhelmingly iron ore, but some aluminum ore, copper ore, etc.
(4) - primarily iron & steel products; some aluminum, copper, etc.
(5) - phosphate rock, rock salt, crude sulphur, clay, etc.
(6) - cement, ground earths or minerals, gypsum products, etc.
(7) - scrap metal and paper, construction debris, ashes, etc.