Brisk July portends frigid, snowy winter, experts say

Brisk July portends frigid, snowy winter, experts say

www.pittsburghlive.com

Meteorologists at AccuWeather have a name for 2009: "Year Without True Summer." The worst part? It could lead to the truest of winters. July's below-average temperatures could mean heavy snowfalls and bitter cold this winter along the Eastern Seaboard, according to the State College-based service and its chief meteorologist, Joe Bastardi.
...
But these types of long-term forecasts are difficult to make accurately, other meteorologists said.

(visit the link for the full news article)

With the longer winter, and cooler persistent temperatures that have occurred in much of the U.S., and knowing that we have had records lows in spring, and summer, there is a real possibility this winter will get very chilly, but only time will tell.

The Sun's activity continue at it's crawling pace, even though from time to time there have been some activity. Even during the Little Ice Age there were some sunspots, but the general activity of the Sun had decreased as it is now for several decades.

During the LIA (Little Ice Age) there were some fluctuations in temperatures, with the coldest temperatures coinciding with the times of less Sun activity.

If the Sun's activity does not pick up, and continues like it has been for a while, we will experience more, and more colder climates.

Let's just hope it doesn't happen, because it is during these colder times that ALL of nature, all living creatures, and even mankind suffers.

www.pittsburghlive.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

But, but, but... What about Global Warming??? Algore said that the Earth has a fever, not hypothermia!

Yeah, I believe I had read something about another El Nino building in the Pacific again this year which also contributes to some unusual weather. However, the formation of El Nino usually contributes to warmer and wetter weather in the upper mid-west and northeast US.

Oh well, we'll see... the weather has been rather unpredictable.

I'm not counting on it being super cold or warmer than usual this winter simply because a 7 day forecast hardly ever is even right, so several months surely is a crap-shoot at best. Cold I can live with, but snow just makes me want to start kicking things (I don't own a 4x4 yet).

Here is what one study concluded when correlating mild summers to the ensuing winter:

CONCLUSION

Several of the groups examined in this study showed skill above climatology in determining the upcoming season's temperature and precipitation regime.

Normal temperatures during the summer tended to favor winters that were both cool and dry. When the summer was cooler than normal, however, the following winter was more likely to be normal with respect to temperature and the likelihood of a dry winter was significantly less. Summer precipitation suggested skill in determining the upcoming season, as well. Following wetter than normal summers, the winters were less likely to be cool; slight increases arose in both the warmer than normal and normal winters. Winters also tended to be wetter than normal following wetter than normal summers. Drier than normal summers were followed by winters with normal precipitation, and normal summer precipitation regimes were followed by drier than normal winters.

Summers in which temperature or precipitation departed significantly from normal also continued some of the trends that first appeared in the previous examinations. The occurrence of cool winters following significantly warm summers continued its downward trend and the trend of wetter than normal winters continued to increase after significantly warm summers. Wetter than normal winters also continued to rise following significantly cooler than normal summers. Winters following significantly wet summers were wetter than normal 50 percent of the time, which is incredible if only 33 percent should happen by chance.

By examining past seasons, trends appear that suggest a correlation between what occurs from season to season. This also presents the possibility that skill can be achieved in determining tendencies of the upcoming season based on the previous season.

SOURCE: www.srh.noaa.gov...

Just my 2-cents

I hated the movie "The Day After Tomorrow," but now I may have to revisit it! I read in a thread somewhere that the Atlantic Current is weaker this year than ever before. The Gulf of Mexico never really got as warm as usual this year. The Atlantic Temperature near Jacksonville, FL has never even gotten out of the 70's this year!! We haven't had any big Tropical Systems.

All summer (including today) we have had weird, high, grey clouds here in Florida that have seemed unusual. They remind me of Fall and Winter in the Midwest, but it is the first time in 10 years that I have seen them in Florida!!

I definitely think we are in for a hard winter, and maybe more!

Star and Flag for you!

In south central Texas where I have lived for 27 years we had, and are still having the hotest summer on record. It is ridiculous how many days over 100 degrees we have had. They say it is because we have had high pressure hanging over our heads all summer. BRING ON WINTER!

-E-

Originally posted by getreadyalready
The Atlantic Temperature near Jacksonville, FL has never even gotten out of the 70's this year!! We haven't had any big Tropical Systems.

The atlantic has been unusually warm this year. NJ Shore the water has been upper 70s to low 80s the entire summer.

www.nodc.noaa.gov...

Florida never out of 70s?

Gulf of mexico: www.nodc.noaa.gov...
high 80s
Atlantic Coast: www.nodc.noaa.gov...
low 80s, though it is VERY interesting to note that the warm water band has migrated north-- Virginia and Maryland have been seeing upper 80's water temperatures for pretty much the entire summer.

As for the tropical storms, the hurricane season is just starting so expect some pick-up in atlantic storm activity. It has been unusually dry down in florida this year though, and unusually wet up in New England areas.

reply to post by SlasherOfVeils


Well, I can't find the map I want, but on our local news every night, there is a pocket of mid 70 degree water near the Port of Jacksonville.

It is interesting how the warmer Atlantic water has moved Northward up the East Coast. In my experience the North Gulf of Mexico waters are in the upper 80's to lower 90's during the bulk of the summer. I frequent Panama City, Destin, and all the way over the Pensacola, and this is the coolest I have ever seen the waters in July and August!

www.nodc.noaa.gov...

I think it has to do with a weaker Atlantic Current this year.

www.cicero.uio.no...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Helig


Statements like these do not belong on a weather topic. If you can't explain the difference between weather and climate adn global climate, please refrain from making comments.


as for getting around in the snow. A good pair of snowtires beats out a 4x4 anyday.


have a nice day!

[edit on 27-8-2009 by nixie_nox]

reply to post by getreadyalready


aye some areas, like Ocean city MD is almost 10 degrees warmer in the water this year. It will be interesting to see how the warmer northern water will effect this hurricane season. We already had Bill retain hurricane status all the way up to canada-- usually storms will fall apart much faster then Bill did entering the northern parts of the Atlantic.

reply to post by kozmo


don't you get chills when you have a fever?

besides if it keeps being bitter, that actually doesn't bode well. I hope this is just temprorary. It means so much fresh water has diluted the ocean conveyor system that it stopped working, and bringing up the warmth from the south.

reply to post by SlasherOfVeils


It gets a little more complicated then that. Warm water can affect it, so can the winds and a variety of other things. Hurricanes are kinda complicated.
Maybe they should all be named after women. XD

shout out to OC.

La Nina is dying down and quickly being replaced by El Nino.

It is important to keep your eyes on the Pacific ocean temperatures off the west coast of the Americas if you seriously want to have any type of clear indication as to what the near future holds weatherwise.

Those two 'kids' are our best fortune tellers.

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

-snip-

El Niño's impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños also have produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

www.noaanews.noaa.gov...

Bolding mine

reply to post by Aggie Man



I guess that must have been why since about 2006 we have seen around the world some of the worse winters in a long time. In places like the Middle East, China, etc, they experienced the worse winters in 50 to 100 years, all coinciding with the low Solar activity.



[edit on 27-8-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

The news last night declared that Sydney/NSW, Australia had it's warmest Winter on record. Rainfall is well below average for August and El Nino weather patterns seem to be making their presence felt.

I would love to hear from Ozweatherman and what this may portend for Australia. I have a nasty feeling Sydney may become drought stricken again and be back on severe water restrictions over the next few months.

I know the weather is all "screwy" for lack of a better phrase. Here in Ky we had normal Aug temps (100+) in June, July was like May and Aug has been like Sept. As a matter of fact I think we are supposed to break the record low for this time of year this weekend. We have done that a couple of times this month, and Aug. has always been the hottest month for us...that is until this year....

In Wyoming, which is far away from any oceans, we have had not only a longer winter, but temperatures have stayed very nice and cool. We have had temps around 45-65 for MOST of the summer at night, when it should have been much warmer, meanwhile in the mornings after about 11 or so temps have been around 70-95 at the most. We have had very few days with temps in the high and mid 90s.

In areas such as Florida, and other coastal areas, or areas close to oceans temps of course have been very different because of the oceans being Earth's greatest heat storage.

Temps at night now once again are in the 40s to upper 50s and 60s or so and it does seem that we will have an early winter. the same will happen in many if not most nothern states, and nations, but anyone close to any large oceans will not see winter arrive so fast.

[edit on 28-8-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Originally posted by nixie_nox
reply to post by SlasherOfVeils

 

It gets a little more complicated then that. Warm water can affect it, so can the winds and a variety of other things. Hurricanes are kinda complicated.
Maybe they should all be named after women. XD

shout out to OC.

Haha, yes Hurricanes are EXTREMELY complicated, I was simply pointing out with the warmer water up north and a colder band in the caribbean area, we may be seeing them tolerate and push into northern territory as a trend for 2009. So far both Bill and Danny are headed straight up the eastern coast toward Nova Scotia. We'll see if this pattern continues through the next month.