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Meteorologists at AccuWeather have a name for 2009: "Year Without True Summer." The worst part? It could lead to the truest of winters. July's below-average temperatures could mean heavy snowfalls and bitter cold this winter along the Eastern Seaboard, according to the State College-based service and its chief meteorologist, Joe Bastardi.
But these types of long-term forecasts are difficult to make accurately, other meteorologists said.
Several of the groups examined in this study showed skill above climatology in determining the upcoming season's temperature and precipitation regime.
Normal temperatures during the summer tended to favor winters that were both cool and dry. When the summer was cooler than normal, however, the following winter was more likely to be normal with respect to temperature and the likelihood of a dry winter was significantly less. Summer precipitation suggested skill in determining the upcoming season, as well. Following wetter than normal summers, the winters were less likely to be cool; slight increases arose in both the warmer than normal and normal winters. Winters also tended to be wetter than normal following wetter than normal summers. Drier than normal summers were followed by winters with normal precipitation, and normal summer precipitation regimes were followed by drier than normal winters.
Summers in which temperature or precipitation departed significantly from normal also continued some of the trends that first appeared in the previous examinations. The occurrence of cool winters following significantly warm summers continued its downward trend and the trend of wetter than normal winters continued to increase after significantly warm summers. Wetter than normal winters also continued to rise following significantly cooler than normal summers. Winters following significantly wet summers were wetter than normal 50 percent of the time, which is incredible if only 33 percent should happen by chance.
By examining past seasons, trends appear that suggest a correlation between what occurs from season to season. This also presents the possibility that skill can be achieved in determining tendencies of the upcoming season based on the previous season.
Originally posted by getreadyalready
The Atlantic Temperature near Jacksonville, FL has never even gotten out of the 70's this year!! We haven't had any big Tropical Systems.
NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.
El Niño's impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.
El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños also have produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.
Originally posted by nixie_nox
reply to post by SlasherOfVeils
It gets a little more complicated then that. Warm water can affect it, so can the winds and a variety of other things. Hurricanes are kinda complicated.
Maybe they should all be named after women. XD
shout out to OC.