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Retail Sales Fall During Back To School Shopping Season (That's very very bad!)

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posted on Aug, 25 2009 @ 05:42 PM
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Reuters.com


NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Redbook Research on Tuesday released the
following seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store sales:
Year-over-year: Week (w/e 8/22/09 vs year ago) -4.4 pct
Year-over-year:Month (August 2009 vs August 2008) -4.4 pct
Month-over-month: (August 2009 vs July 2009) -0.7 pct

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index is a sales-weighted index of
year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large U.S. general
merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.


This is VERY VERY bad for the economy. The last month of Summer is supposed to be a positive month for sales. When parents are buying supplies and getting read for the school year.

Having s negative number... very BAD.




posted on Aug, 25 2009 @ 06:00 PM
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reply to post by Tentickles
 


That is year over year

Everything from last year is down pre september

Retail Index was up big today



posted on Aug, 25 2009 @ 06:08 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 



Month-over-month: (August 2009 vs July 2009) -0.7 pct


Read it better please. All the information is right there.



posted on Aug, 25 2009 @ 06:47 PM
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With unemployment at or near 10% I think that this would be expected.

If you're out of work, you don't have the extra cash to outfit kids in new school clothes like you did when you were working.

For those that are still employed, it's probably business as usual.

It's just the sad reality of the recession/depression.



posted on Aug, 25 2009 @ 07:31 PM
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Thanks for the consistently bad news, ten.
I know, don't shoot the messenger. Do you think we will have to wait till Christmas before we are told how really bad things are?



posted on Aug, 25 2009 @ 08:14 PM
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Originally posted by KSPigpen
Thanks for the consistently bad news, ten.
I know, don't shoot the messenger. Do you think we will have to wait till Christmas before we are told how really bad things are?


I can tell you right now how bad things are, if you want?

Prefer you find out yourself though.



posted on Aug, 25 2009 @ 11:02 PM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by Tentickles
 


That is year over year

Everything from last year is down pre september

Retail Index was up big today


Month over month is -.7 percent.. which IS very big considering its usually a healthy increase from school sales...

I hope one day you understand economics and stocks no longer relate.. no one gives a damn about the retail index increasing while they post a massive loss in sales, and thus profit.

Tenticles:

Its pretty surprising given the rate of decline .. and it looks like christmas will be even worse than then I estimated. However it may not be surprising to see the retail big box stores post an increase in sales and units sold, which will boost the markets but profits declining. Wouldn't be surprising to see a year over year decline of 1% or more in november/december.

For anyone not knowing how severe this is.. a heakthy sales season will mean the recession is coming to a close, a poor sales season will mean at least another year of depression.. 70% of our gdp is consumerism.. And a second year of major declines will decimate the economy and any potential growth in job markets.



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 01:34 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Market didnt think it was bad news seeing as retail soared today (yesterday) so either y o y is worthless or our decline m o m is.. should august be the biggest one anyways, and not july?

EDIT: apparently they have done august somehow already.. maybe just projecting sales.. not sure how they do this... either way I guess we will find out in the coming days

[edit on 26-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 03:46 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


The markets didn't mind? Lol... seriously mate, when was the last time the markets acted rationally? I can't even count on my hands how many times just this month the market rallied on bad news.

The back to school season is july-mid august.. the results are priliminary, but a good insight given the majority of sales have ended.

If we went by your economic philosophy, that markets acted based on economics then our price to earnings ratio should be tiny, compared to expanding, no???



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 03:48 AM
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This is bad news for the Chinese economy. Considering most of the stuff bought is made there.

[edit on 26-8-2009 by cloakndagger]



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 04:22 AM
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I work in sales having to do with various automotive services and I can tell you first hand this summer is completely dead. Based off the logic of people holding onto their older cars during hard times therefore they will need to take better care of them, we were actually expecting an increase in sales or at least being even with last year.

Well apparently the automotive industry's logic is fallible because around this time last year and the months prior I was making near 4x what I am now and so was our stores. Lines out the door and all that. So far this summer I've spent the majority of the past two months at work staring into our empty parking lot chain smoking cigarettes for 8-10 hours a day. It's HORRIBLE out there.

Meanwhile our upper 150k a year management types cant for the life of them figure out why all our stores on the west coast our doing so bad. Apparently they are so busy coming up with stupid ideas to implement they havn't had any time to watch the news for the past year...

*SIGH*



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 07:39 AM
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reply to post by PlausibleDeniability
 


People simply forgoing mild repair jobs.. One of my cars (ford focus ... will never buy another ford... ever) has a massive popping issue when you turn the steering wheel. Went to a shop to get it fixed and they wanted $600.. I think if I sold the car I would be lucky to get 4k. And seeing as my car still drives, why pay that much? Since then the back window randomly falls down, and the trunk latch gave way. I advised my g/f to drive it till the wheels fall off (which I am fairly certain at some point... will) and she can get her self a nice foreign car like my Xd. Pay to have it fixed? Sorry mate, but you garage types are worse than tax collectors in my book!



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 10:14 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


iM Just saying if the news was earth shattering horrible retail sector would have gotten hammered yesterday.. theres really no way around that.. although I am not contending that this year will be good for anything by any means



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 10:23 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


The news also reported over 200k jobs were lost in July and the Unemployment Rate DECLINED

And the market rallied.

Enough said, eh?


(584,000 people were pushed to U6 in July as 'long term unemployed/not seeking")



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 12:14 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


I mean, it's on its way down.. what do you think should happen in a recovery? And I say that to you because I know you are smarter than that and you know where the markets are headed.

IMO your views are slanted as you are out of work, as well as I infact. But the "slope" is turning down.. I mean that has to happen right in the process of getting better?



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 12:32 PM
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This is so funny, people didn't buy school clothes because they were busy buying cars.


And now they show that they were also busy buying new homes, as the government is now claiming that the mortgage crisis is over.


Let no forget that job loses are still high, but don't worry by the end of the months the government figures will show that jobs are growing.



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 02:09 PM
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Originally posted by marg6043
This is so funny, people didn't buy school clothes because they were busy buying cars.


And now they show that they were also busy buying new homes, as the government is now claiming that the mortgage crisis is over.


Let no forget that job loses are still high, but don't worry by the end of the months the government figures will show that jobs are growing.


That's all you hear. People are buying up new homes and cars like no tomorrow yet retail sales are down when this time is traditionally a boom for retail (next to the holiday season). Listening to the little main stream media that I do nowadays, it would appear that common sense has been turned upside down, which should ring that big alarm in a normal person's brain that means "your listening to B.S.!". I would never have thought that this would all be happening in the U.S. and it's quickly becoming like a bad dream


By the way, I had a feeling many months ago that the government would never admit to the U.S. reaching the 10% unemployment rate (of course to avoid public panic, etc.) and I agree that each month they'll be lowering that meaningless rate more and more.

[edit on 26-8-2009 by TypeSH2001]



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 05:45 PM
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This really doesn't suprise me.

The U3 Numbers for unemployement stayed the same (Not Seasonally Adjusted) at 9.7% from June to July.

The U6 Numbers for unemployment stayed the same (Not Seasonally Adjusted) at 16.8%

According to the BLS Website.

Also see this thread regarding unemployment... www.abovetopsecret.com...

Also taking into consideration tonnage carried by "For-Hire Trucks" has been bouncing all over the board .....


The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 106.3 in July, down 0.9 percent from June.


Link To Source

And that same tonnage compared to July of 2008 was down 10.4%.

Even if you take into consideration "Seasonal Adjustments" the July tonnage rate only increased 2.1% from June to July of this year.

Truck tonnage has been running at a 7 year low for the last few months and while some are hopeful that this "bouncing around" indicates that "maybe" things will pick up, I'm not quite so optimisitc. Especially seeing as I'm one of the people hauling that tonnage. Things have been absolutely HORRIBLE in the trucking industry lately and I don't see any relief in the future for us.

And if there's less freight for us to haul, that means less stuff going to stores, which means people are NOT buying. Talking recently to a number of different drivers out there, they're all saying the same thing. They're hauling "basics" but not much else.

I don't care what the stock market says. It's manipulated (at best) and the numbers can NOT be trusted. Just see this thread!
www.abovetopsecret.com...



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 06:06 PM
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Unemployment numbers will get lower as more people no longer qualify for unemployment.

There are a lot more that can not get it or qualify and still do not have a job.

The numbers are so fake.

Jobs do not magically appear. They have to be created from somewhere.

The only jobs I see being created are new Zars and more government positions.

I mean come on, the can spin it anyway they want to, but a horse is a horse and a pig is a pig.



posted on Aug, 26 2009 @ 06:43 PM
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Instead of avoiding the problems caused during the last Great Depression, Obama appears to be walking in the footsteps of FDR. And since I can't explain it any better than the gentleman who wrote the article, here's what he said and the link.


FDR sponsored “make-work” programs instead of real work programs. Thus, instead of helping businesses create jobs that create wealth—and it’s wealth that creates other jobs and prosperity— FDR had us build roads and bridges and plant trees.


Link to Source

This is a very well written story that shows the parallel between what happened in the past and what is happening now.

As the saying goes .. "History always repeats itself."

By FDR creating "make-work" jobs instead of helping create "real work" it helped to extend the Great Depression.

Same thing is going to happen here. It's a vicious circle. People loose jobs, they cut back on spending, companies need to lay off people because they aren't making as much money, more people loose jobs, they cut back on spending ... etc .. etc .. etc ..



**Edit to add: The thing that pulled the US of A out of the Great Depression? WWI ... Can't help but wonder what TPTB are going to come up with for this one ...

[edit on 26-8-2009 by cnichols]



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