WASHINGTON (Aug. 24) -- The H1N1 flu virus could cause up to 90,000 U.S. deaths, mainly among children and young adults, if it resurges this fall as
expected, according to a report released Monday by a presidential advisory panel.
The H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu virus, could infect between 30 percent and 50 percent of the American population during the fall and
winter and lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology reported.
The report says 30,000 to 90,000 deaths are projected as part of a "plausible scenario" involving large outbreaks at schools, inadequate antiviral
supplies and the virus peaking before vaccinations have time to be effective.
Up to 40,000 U.S. deaths are linked to seasonal flu each year, with most of the fatalities occurring among people over 65. With seasonal flu and H1N1,
this fall is expected to bring more influenza deaths and place "enormous stress" on intensive care units nationwide, which normally operate near
capacity, the report says.
An H1N1 resurgence may happen as early as September, at the beginning of the school year, and infections may peak in mid-October, according to the
report. However, the H1N1 vaccine isn't expected to be available until mid-October, and even then it will take several weeks for vaccinated
individuals to develop immunity, the report says.
The potential "mismatch in timing" could significantly diminish the usefulness of the H1N1 vaccine, the report says.
"Even with the best efforts, this will cause some illness, some severe illness and unfortunately, some deaths," Thomas Frieden, director of the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said
So I'm wondering, is this number overstated or could it be understated, I keep hearing from both sides and either way it's scary, If I don't take
the shot I could die and if I do take the shot I could die, Lets hear your side I'll listen to what the majority says on here.