Swine Flu reaches 1918 flu mortality rate (death rate)!, page
Pages:
ATS Members have flagged this thread 4 times


reply posted on 24-8-2009 @ 11:32 PM by Curious and Concerned
I can't go to your link, but I have a question.

Do the rates you mention come from people who have confirmed H1N1?

If that's the case, that would mean only people that are hospitilised, and actually tested for H1N1 would be "confirmed" cases. This would mean that the majority of people who get mild infections, which is the majority, would not be included in the official "confirmed" cases.

If this is true, the actual mortality rate would be far, far less than 1 in 7.
I say this because this is similiar to what's happening in NZ, and it would now be impossible to find an actual mortality rate here, as people aren't getting tested, unless there are other complications. eg pre-existing respitory disorders.

15 August 2009

Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 Swine Flu - Update 135


Latest Numbers

The total number of confirmed cases of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 swine flu is 3038, up from 3034 yesterday.

These are people who have returned a laboratory positive test for pandemic influenza (H1N1) 09. The actual number of cases of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 will be significantly higher, as only a small proportion of people with symptoms are being tested to better inform their treatment. This is because for most people, it's a mild illness and they will recover readily at home without needing medical treatment.
source

At the time of this reporting there were 14 deaths (now 16, with the majority having pre-existing illnesses). Using these figures, we get a mortality rate of about 0.46% (if my calculations are corect ). But in reality, the mortality rate is far, far lower than this. This is becauses there are perhaps 10, 20 or even 100 times more cases than what is "confirmed". It has turned out that "swine flu" has pretty much been this winters seasonal flu (but with all the added hype).

I have a feeling this type of descrepency would be even larger in Brazil, as only extreme cases would be tested, meaning far lower mortality rates. At least I hope so, for their sake.

Also,
The Ministry of Health is considering reducing New Zealand's swine flu alert level because the number of new cases is falling.

"It's basically a de-escalation," deputy director of public health Dr Fran McGrath said yesterday.
source

It's safe to say I'd rather take my chances with the flu than the vaccine.
Pages:     ^^TOP^^



As Vaccinations Decline, Whooping Cough Returns
  Posted 13 days ago with 3 member flags
Operation Medicine Delivery
  Posted 17 days ago with 2 member flags
FDA Panel Recommends First HIV-Prevention Drug
  Posted 16 days ago with 1 member flags
Most Skitzophrenics are SANE
  Posted 7 days ago with 1 member flags