Peak Oil - Just What Is It?, page

reply to post by octotom

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That would be the correct terminology. It basically means it is the point in time when the maximum rate of oil extraction is reached, then begins to decline.

I've been researching this lately and found one rather interesting link.

It is quite long, but seems rather quite well researched.

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net...

reply to post by mirageofdeceit

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Just joined ATS and although this is late I will answer your question on Peak Oil. The term was developed by King Hubbert a geologist with a major oil company that accurately predicted the peak rate of production for the United States oil fields in the early 1950's. Us oil production peaked around 1969. This was skewed by Prudoe Bay discovery in Alaska.

Mr. Hubberts prediction is basically a statistical analysis of a production oil basin. In a virgin basin that contains oil the first discoveries are the biggest most prolific fields. They are found first simply because they are bigger. As development continues theses fields are devloped rapidly and production rises rapidly. When drilling stops in these fileds then production begins to decline. Although drilling continues new discoveries are smaller and less prolific and are unable to make up for the decline of the larger fields decline rate. At a certain point no matter how much money is spent to drill new wells the basin will never again reach its maximum production rate.

This model inappropriately has been applied to the entire world which appears to predict the peak of production may have already occurred. This does not mean that there is a dramatic drop in production only that we will not be able to produce oil at a suuficient rate to meet demand. There as not been a giant field discovered 10 billion barrels plus since Prudoe Bay in 1968. Some count Cuisiano in Columbia, but the field delivers 500,000 bbls/day when the $2 billion pipeline is not being blown up by guerillas. Add in the fact that the infrastructure has been devasted through 20 years of oil prices being in the toilet and that we don't have the people then the peak oil times may occur more rapidly since we don't have the ability to rapidly develope the smaller fields to reduce the decline from the larger producing basins.

The other problem is that a large amount of probable production will not be developed timely since it is held by government monopolys that prohibit Hubbert type development schedules.

On the bright side recent increases in price will aid in the ability to maintain production as more expensive rcovery techniques will extend economical limits thereby increasing reserves and increasing production rate although not to peak levels.

reply to post by PenandSword

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Sorry dude, but the abiotic theory of hydrocarbon recovery has never been proven. Having been to Russia in the oil & gas fields, I can assure you that they can't find their ass with both hands. To believe some obscure Russian scientist's fantasy is the height of gullibility.

Having drilled and completed oil & gas wells from Western Siberia to Tierra Del Fuego and never having been employed by a major oil company, I can assure you that I haven't gotten a sniff of oil or gas once I hit the granite.

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