Germany & France officially out of recession!

Germany & France officially out of recession!

www.spiegel.de

Germany and France, Europe's two largest economies, on Thursday revealed they are officially no longer in recession....

With the release of the data, the European Central Bank is now saying that growth in the euro zone -- the countries where Europe's common currency has been adopted -- could come earlier than previously expected. "There are in fact currently signs of the stabilization of economic activity," ECB member Jürgen Stark told the Börsen Zeitung newspaper. He said those assertions were no longer based solely on poll data, but also on economic data.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Recession almost over for Eurozone?

Even before the global recession set in, the forecast was that countries that used the Anglo Saxon economic investment model would be hit the hardest overall (ie US, UK etc) because their economies are based in a large way on investment and debt.

Germany and France do not use this model and barely even had a recession, also the fact that they are the EU and EUROZONE's largest economies with $6.2 trillion nominal GDP between them means that the EURO has stabilized and if Italy can begin recovery, the whole EUROZONE will be back on track.

This has to be more bad news for the USD though. The EURO is already causing trouble for it. Even though if the EU can start importing again, it will be good for everyone.. especially as it is almost 1/3 of the worlds GDP and its main consumer.

The UK and US are still in a bit of difficulty though.

Also, the recession hasn't even seen the bottom in my country yet.

www.spiegel.de
(visit the link for the full news article)

I wonder is it a consequence of the media and technology that such declarations of doom get overblown- for example, unemployment was higher in the 80s in the UK and 50s in the US yet I doubt there was the same level of hysteria (that being said obviously things could still get worse)

germany and france hadn't grown so much as other countries, i think they just had less of a correction due.

the french finance minister was on BBC last night saying that there needs to be international agreement on capping bonus payouts but she suggested that banks that didn't cap bonuses would have to keep a higher capital reserve, not a bad idea.

Also, the recession hasn't even seen the bottom in my country yet.

there's a bottom now? have you confirmed that or is it just unbridled optimism?

this is what happens when the entire country is pretending they have money, how the hell can someone on 20,000 a year think a brand new BMW in the drive of a 500,000 euro house is a good idea.

in ireland, it's not really economic collapse, it's a lot of stupid people, who thought they had more than they did, getting a kick in the hole from reality.

reply to post by pieman


Yep ireland does have its share of those people, lol.

Thinking they live in dallas world, on 20k a year.

Originally posted by pieman
germany and france hadn't grown so much as other countries, i think they just had less of a correction due.

To be fair, the German economy has been purring pretty well for the past decade.

Its true though that they have pretty much done it all and have/will stay(ed) at relative growth because they don't use the Anglo Saxon model of boom/bust, bubble based growth..

Its still pretty good for the Eurozone and EU as a whole.. If the UK and Spain can get a grip, the whole thing will be sorted but I cant see that happening anytime son.

there's a bottom now? have you confirmed that or is it just unbridled optimism?

I suppose we'll just have to wait and see if there is a bottom.. Maybe we'll get to 100% recession & 100% unemployment and start to go completely backwards which could work out well in some weird way... Now there's optimism for you!

reply to post by blueorder


The thing is that once this recession is over, it will be just another statistic on a big economic graph and within a decade, noone will even remember it.

You are right.. It is media hype that creates a huge amount of the problems.

I don't keep too up to date with what goes on in these economies but if I remember correctly France or at least Germany did not have a large stimulus package. Worth considering for all of those who believe the stimulus is saving or saved economies that had one.

Originally posted by Dermo
Its true though that they have pretty much done it all and have/will stay(ed) at relative growth because they don't use the Anglo Saxon model of boom/bust, bubble based growth..

so how do the german and french economies work?

just observing, i've noticed that they don't really seem to buy "stuff" but that might be stereotyping on my part.

reply to post by Dermo


Well there you have it.


Not only does France have the best healthcare, they also have one of the most resilient economic models.

I wonder what Orielly has to say about this?

Originally posted by pieman
so how do the german and french economies work?

just observing, i've noticed that they don't really seem to buy "stuff" but that might be stereotyping on my part.

TBH I am not too sure exactly how their systems differ from ours but I remember reading a study by an economist when the financial crises was kicking off and he explained it very well.

Basically, the anglo saxon model is based on Risk through investment which means wealth can grow quickly but bubbles are easily created. It is easier to get rich but also easier to lose everything.

Continental Capitalism is similar in many ways but is more regulated by government and produces less overall wealth but also less poverty while creating more stability overall in the economy.

Both have their ups and downs obviously.

Originally posted by HunkaHunka
Not only does France have the best healthcare, they also have one of the most resilient economic models.

That's not completely correct, France has always had an unemployment level that is over 10%.. Its mainly amongst the young muslim, North african populations in City "suburbs" but is still there.

reply to post by Dermo


ok why not ? i'm from paris france and i can tell you it's bull sh**, they are just talking, 0.3% ... this figure is that the tens of thousands of lost jobs have allowed companies to make substantial profits, the banks also. Then the market starts slowly after a dive record. But obviously, it is better to move back! the crisis to show the tip of its nose, it will be much worse next time around, roughly the dates that we announce our minister (announcement incidentally totally bogus and only made to reassure the market), they think we are stupid idiot, they say the lost job is going less, you wanna why, because In July the number of unemployed falling and we forget to say why: 20000 have not been rewritten or deleted because the employment center can not take care!

We now know what the reform and merger-ANPE ASSEDIC! when the crise start the decide to made a fusion of this ANPE ASSEDIC, they have so much work to do then most of people can not register, they can not have there money some people are so mad then the employe of this organisation are afraide to work and no mistake christine lagarde it's just a puppet she talk on tv a few minute after she is flamed, she just talk talk talk and the media just follow ,they dont have any chance our great president have a sweet relation with the media he can decide who can stay and who can leave it's insane.

i'm fed up off all of this , people are so mad and angry, i'm sure this time we dont let them fool us, for this fall with a pandemics flu with storm and rain even with alien invasion, we go to the street and we show them we are not stupid robot made only to spend money and say yes, we go out and let them any choice, NO,NO,NO enough is enough

Ok why not what?

France has always had a relatively high unemployment rate in relation to many other western economies (when times are good), much of it is because of it's stringent and at times odd employment laws. That's well known even outside of France.

At the moment, the French economy is obviously doing very well in comparison to the rest of the west. You are lucky to be living there TBH.

It could be worse, you could be living in Ireland with unemployment in 18-28 year olds anything up to 25%.


[edit on 15/8/09 by Dermo]

reply to post by Dermo



why not what... if french economy is fine i think you know much better then me, maybe i'm leaving in france and i 'm totaly blind... or maybe what is happening here it's just an illusion and i'm the only one who say it's getting worse...just and advice find some good article translate it and read like the leap 2020 or the
this one c4n,
www.come4news.com...

maybe france is better then irland or spain or england, but saying is going out of recession is a BIG LIE!

reply to post by pitchdragon


To be fair, economic recovery doesn't mean that job losses will stop, it just means that growth in some sectors outweighs recession in others and until there is growth of at least 2-3%, most average people won't really notice it.

Economies are very fickle, just the fact that the media will be reporting these growth figures about France and Germany mean that foreign investment will increase in these countries and that will lead to employment increases etc. If Italian and Spanish figures are exceptionally bad over the next quarter, then the EURO will take a hit and so will the French and German economies.

Anyway, what im trying to say is that just because you don't see recovery doesn't mean its not there and also, recovery from the bottom is still from the bottom, it doesn't mean that things should be back to the way they were before the financial crises, it means that they are starting to head that direction.

While it's true that Germany's economy has grown, I think that I saw on the news the other morning that it had only grown by .3% or something like that in the last quarter. I don't know if that is something to really be ecstatic about. I say this because, many people here in Germany are expecting things to start getting really bad now because, the government is running out of money to keep feeding into their social programs that keep people working. One example of this is the employer only pays part of your salary and the government picks up the rest of the tab. Once that runs out, people are going to be out of work.

In addition, many Germans lost their jobs when this whole thing began. They used this as an opportunity to be trained in a new job. This training usually lasts a year or so. In the fall then, many people are going to be flooding the job market again, trying to get new jobs, which will put more strain on the German economy because that will be more people added to the unemployment rolls.

I think that Germany will only truly be pulled out of recession when places like the US and the UK get out of recession, since Germany is an export based economy and they need people to buy their goods.