posted on Aug, 12 2009 @ 10:13 PM
Originally posted by Chilled Zen
My questions are partially about the next part of the supposed cycle(The Boom).
WHEN/IF - Will we sink into a depression? Have we already? Predictions for when the economy will start to grow again/by how much?
I'm the camp that says "The recession is over now." But I think it's only in remission, and not cured. Growth will be mild-to-moderate (it'll
like a recession), and then another shoe will drop and we'll double-dip within a couple of years. If we double-dip soon enough,
then I doubt they'll bother trying to claim that we were ever out of the recession. And yes, by definition, we're in a Depression. Recessions are
the natural troughs in the business cycle, and Depressions are financial Crises. We're in a financial crisis. So the question is whether it will be a
short, or long Depressionary period.
WHY - What factors will influence the boom? Are TPTB going to be responsible for it/will they allow it? Is it all just preset and
TPTB would welcome
it. They have nothing to gain by having India/China overthrow the Western World and become top-dog. But they won't be
responsible for it (but they will take credit for it). Economic growth is driven by technological advancement. Usually, financial crises don't truly
end until there is a technological revolution. Even when Japan and Argentina saw their Depressions end, growth was pretty stagnant, because not much
happened on the technological front.
I guess what I'm really asking for is your predictions on what will happen to the Economy over the next 2 years and why.
If we have a second wave of defaults in real estate -- commercial and residential -- then we fall further. If civil-unrest leads to domestic
terrorism, then we fall further. If California or some other state defaults, then we fall further. If Ireland or some other nation defaults, then we
fall further. If Swine Flu becomes a major issue, then we fall further. If we have a global food shortage (which looked like a probability just a few
months ago), then we fall further.
If nothing bad happens in the world
, and the Federal Reserve doesn't do something stupid, then the worst might be past. I'd bank on something
bad happening, and causing us to fall further. It could happen tomorrow, it could happen three years from now. But even though I'm a temporary
"bottom-caller," I'm not doing back-flips.