U.S. may be forced to issue the Treasury bonds in Yuan.
from link:
www.kitco.com...
USGOVT YUAN BONDS
The concept can be described in very simple terms. The vehicle is devastating in its effects and consequences. What are they exactly? The USGovt might soon issue bonds, except not in US$ denomination, but rather in Yuan currency. Out of the gate (with debt signposts), the USGovt must purchase gigantic swaths of Yuan and pay with USDollars. The result is a quantum decline in the US$ exchange rate relative to everything holding the Yuan together. The Chinese decided in 2005 to tie their Yuan currency to a basket of currencies, led by the US$, the Euro, the Yen, the British Pound, and a small additional group. So the direct purchase of Yuan by the Untied States, the newest upcoming member of the Third World, will have numerous profound effects to lift other currencies.
The direct consequences of USGovt Yuan Bonds would be vast, visible, lethal:
The USDollar exchange rate would fall with each debt issuance
The loan balance in USGovt debt would rise with a declining USDollar
The Yuan currency would be further established as a global reserve alternative
Continued trade settlement in Yuan terms would be enabled
Rise in entire cost structure to the USEconomy from commodity pricing
The risk of USTreasury Bond default grows with each passing new issuance
The Chinese want protection and assurance against the falling USDollar and even the growing principal risk of USTreasurys. Higher bond yields mean principal bond loss. Both currency and bond loss mean a powerful combined loss. Beijing wants protection and security in exchange for continued debt support. A Yuan-based bond issuance by the USDept Treasury, sold by the USFed would accomplish this to some degree. In a few years time, if the US$ exchange rate is 15% to 30% lower, the loan balance in Yuan terms would be unchanged. The cost to the USGovt grows by that percentage however. If the yield rises, then protection can be locked by means of making the debt securities of shorter maturity, like two to five years.
The Chinese have already been shifting their USTBond portfolio from long-term to short-term maturity. This has been the driving factor behind the rising 10-year USTreasury yield and the steeper yield curve. Perversely, the US banks enjoy a benefit. They can amplify their Carry Trade, borrow at the short end, invest in the long end, pocket the 2% to 3% difference, and even store their booty of bonds at the USFed itself. This is one reason the US banks are not lending to Main Street firms and households. They are too busy playing the USTBond Carry Trade under the aegis of the discredited US Federal Reserve. And the topic of Bank Consolidation has not even been raised, whereby the big US banks reverse the carry trade by buying up distressed regional banks.


