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And here's the math:
1.923 BTC X 61.59% Primary Dealer bid = 1.18 BTC (PD), greater than 1.0. Or to put it a different way, but for the primary dealers the bid-to-cover was less than one, meaning that some of the issue would have been left on the table.
Thats a fail; but for the primary dealers the issue would not have subscribed.
Primary dealers are required to bid. That's the deal in exchange for their being named as "primary dealers." For this reason short of thermonuclear war you will never see an actual (BTC < 1.0) "fail" on a US Treasury Auction - Treasury has rigged the process so as to insure that cannot be reported.
Therefore, the question is this: Less the primary dealer "bid" (forced by agreement) was there sufficient interest to subscribe the issue, and the answer is NO.
Those who think this is "no big deal" need to have their head examined. In general any BTC under 2.0 indicates a serious problem, and the perverse nature of the primary dealer system is the reason.
The United States' Credit Card (issued by China and Japan) is being slowly cut off. That the stock market "recovered" after this ridiculously bad auction (bow-wow is the best way to describe it) speaks to the vacuum between the ears of both the cheerleaders in the mainstream media and those in the equity markets.
There is only one other time in recent memory that we've had a bond market auction fail like this. You might want to go have a look at your charts - with dates - for what followed shortly thereafter.
They're going to try to sell 7yrs tomorrow, and then the real fun begins with the quarterly refunding. That ought to be a real riot.
NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters) - Though the stellar seven-year auction creates a positive tone ahead of the refunding, anxieties created by unimpressive two- and five-year auctions this week will linger as long as the market sees a growing load of debt headed its way.
At Thursday's auction, seven-year demand overall was above average, measured by the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63. A gauge of foreign and institutional investor interest, the indirect bidder category, was stellar at more than 62 percent.
In another sign of strength in the auction, yields were below expectations, gauged by trading in the when-issued market. In contrast, two- and five-year auction yields came in above market expectations, which is known as a 'tail.'
'Overall it was a pretty good operation. There seems to be a lot of appetite, given where yields are, for notes in the belly.'
The two-year sale was lackluster and the five-year auction went downright poorly before the seven-year marked a recovery.
Shaky auctions of Treasury notes this week reignited concerns about whether the government can attract buyers from China and elsewhere to soak up trillions in new debt.
A fuse was lit this week when traders noted China's apparent absence from direct participation in two Treasury bond auctions. While China may have bought Treasurys just before the auctions, market participants read the country's actions as a worrying sign that China and other foreign investors may be ratcheting back purchases at a time when the U.S. is seeking to fund a $1.8 trillion budget deficit.
This week alone, the U.S. deluged the bond market with more than $200 billion in record-size sales. The U.S. has had little trouble finding buyers in recent months. But that demand is fading, and the Treasury market has become volatile.
Tension on Wall Street trading desks began building late last week when the Treasury surprised the market with plans for a record week of sales. A Monday sale of $90 billion in Treasury bills with maturities of as much as a year went well. But China appeared absent from the following two sales, which totaled $81 billion of debt, traders say.
By Thursday morning, trading-desk heads were frantically working with clients to ensure a better fate for the $28 billion seven-year note auction. It did fare far better, allaying some concerns.
"We believe by maintaining the deepest, most liquid market in the world, we will continue to attract capital from a broad array of investors," said Andrew Williams, a spokesman for the Treasury Department.
Details about the auctions aren't revealed by the government until weeks later. Overseas buyers initially are lumped together into a category known as "indirect bidders," giving little insight into the origins of demand. It may be months until more thorough data on foreign-government buying are released by the U.S. Treasury. Foreign investors had been substantial bidders in recent Treasury auctions, even though their holdings of Treasury debt had started to wane. But this week's auctions renewed worries that central banks and other buyers will start selling more aggressively.
"If this trend continues, it could reflect foreign buyers' increasing concerns about the creditworthiness of the U.S.," said James Bianco, president of Bianco Research.
While no one at State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages China's $2 trillion, would comment on the latest Treasury auctions, the government has left little doubt it fears the portfolio is at risk.
Clipped comments from government officials, amplified by state media editorials, point to a worry the U.S. will ultimately address its massive debt obligations by permitting inflation to rise or letting the U.S. dollar sink –- factors that would erode the value of Treasurys owned by foreign investors such as China.
At economic talks in Washington this week, senior Chinese officials gave their Obama administration counterparts an earful about the burgeoning U.S. budget deficit. China made clear it wants the U.S. to "protect its investment assets" for the good of the bilateral relationship, as the state-run Xinhua news agency reported.
Originally posted by questioningall
So, have you been paying attention? Have you positioned yourself and are you ready for what is coming?
On Wednesday the Treasury’s five-year auction yield was 2.69% with 21.15% allotted at the high and bid to cover was 1.92 to 1. The average of the past ten auctions has been 2.20%. Indirect, central bank participation was 35.7% versus an average of 36.8%. Overall that was weak demand. Do not forget the Treasury has to raise $2 trillion by 9/30/09.
The result of these mediocre to poor auctions has to be more pressure on the dollar, as budget deficits continue to widen.
Mortgage applications fell for the first time in four weeks, driven by a drop in demand for refinancing loans. Both purchase and refi loans fell 6.3%.
This is an early appraisal of the Chinese visit to Washington. There is no question the Chinese have the Illuminists stymied. The big question is has China demanded the rest of our high technology expertise that Bill Clinton was unable to deliver to them? Or have they pledged government properties to the Chinese?