Officially Worst Recession Since Great Depression

U.S. Recession Worst Since Great Depression, Revised Data Show

The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.

This is typical of the United States.. When ever a number comes out.. be it GDP or Unemployment, in a few months we can always count on "Revised" numbers to come out that are far, far worse.... but they never get much media attention.

The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Gross domestic product has shrunk 3.9 percent in the past year, the report said, indicating the worst slump since the Great Depression.

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, decreased 1.8 percent in last year’s fourth quarter from the same period in 2007, exceeding the prior estimate of a 1.5 percent drop. Purchases also began sinking sooner than previously projected, registering their first decline at the start of 2008 rather than in the second half.

Most of the "Good" or I should say "Better than expected" news that has come out indicating a "Recovery" or at the very least an economy not sinking as fast as it was.. will in all likelihood be revised down, as almost all US Numbers are revised down.

Either way, one has to ask.. What is a Depression? .. There are no Recessions that have lasted longer than this Recession .. the only economic period worse was the "Great" Depression. So perhaps this is not a Great Depression .. But is it not a Depression? I think so. And seeing as we have no real evidence the Depression is easing as of now, we can only assume that we have many months, if not years, left of this Depression.

www.bloomberg.com...

Forgot the link.

[edit on 8/1/2009 by Rockpuck]

Hey, hey, hey, quit lying. The recession is over Newsweek and Obama said so, they said we are seeing the first signs of recovery. Quit being a subversive and start toeing the government line, its for the greater good. You hate the children and don't want to see anybody succeed, you America hater!

Okay I'll stop with the sarcasm now. So GDP shrank a whole 1.1 percent lower than what they originally reported. didn't see that one coming.

At least it got reported in Bloomberg so a few people will see it. Either way, they won't tell us if this is Great Depression 2.0 or worse for about 10 years. Well, sounds like the worse fears are going to start happening before to long.

Considering it has yet to "bottom out" I wouldn't go calling it "not The Great Depression" just yet.

The potential that this current Depression has to become far worse could lead to it taking the place of "The Great Depression".

What shall we call it then? The "Greater" Depression?

Either way, there are a lot of outlets still too scared to let the word "depression" slip out. It is a shame really but then again, don't want the sheep getting too scared do we?

reply to post by Rockpuck


Great post, topic OP, thanks.

I've heard it called a "Great Recession" before but I think before we finish we will definitely be in a true Depression. Unfortunately we don't have a president like Abraham Lincoln or Andrew Jackson at this juncture. You want to talk about "change" look to them because we are at a point in history where we need a president willing to make radical change. Jackson closed the Central Bank (equivalant to today's Fed) and basically enraged the bankers beyond belief. But he was too big a man to care. Result: 4 decades of relative prosperity.

Lincoln also acted contrary to the howls of the Bankers and created the Greenback.

We need an administraion and congress with the stones to make similarly radical moves. Simply close the Fed -- end central banking in America -- this is within the range of the President/Congress but unfortunately the office of the presidency has been turned into a simpering sock-puppetry for the Goldman Sachs Alumuni Societies (ie the Fed and the Treasury). Result: These scumbags are running the economy into the ground for fun and profit (mostly profit). Its more complex than that but you get the pic.

Even in the early 80s our Fed chairman was Vokler, who was willing to Jack interest rates close to 20%. He was heavily criticized for the extreme short-term pain but in the long run it convinced investors the govt was serious and it laid the groundwork for a 20-year boom.

This is the kind of bold, iconoclastic action we need. Close the ******* Fed. Frog-walk orange-jumpsuited CEOs on CNN. Enforce exisiting rights. Makes lawyers useful for once and start a class-action suit against various financial institutions. CUT THE PLANNED SPENDING TO THE BONE and arrange the very configuration of the govt to CUT PORK. Tax relief and incentives for small businesspeople.

Denninger pointed this out when he was on CNBS Friday. Here is his blog and video. He pointed out the fallacy of government numbers and slapped DK right in the face with them and DK could only say "Well look at the S & P 500" Hehe.....

market-ticker.org...

The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington.

Previous estimate: -.8%
Accurate number: -1.9%

Rhetorical Question: How in hell do you miss by that much?

This is why I stopped following the BLS unemployment reports. It's IMPOSSIBLE to know how accurate the numbers actually are, and any conclusions that you come to are bound to be wrong.

You can bet your last nickel that the numbers will be significantly revised.

They're always revised.

Lots of folks would vapor lock if the real numbers were released the first time around.

So they usually cut the bad news in half. And claim later that additional data has come to light which requires an adjustment.

We came out of the Great Depression.

We may not come out of this one. No testes, no financial compass, no moral courage.

The only way this could be worse is if - whoops. If - if we had a full awakening at once in the US.

Of course if that happened - no more US.

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost


OMG I couldn't listen past 3/4ths of this video.

DK is probably the most ignorant news anchor I have ever seen... he is literally so @!$ stupid he gives me a headache.

THE STOCK MARKET DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ECONOMY!

You would think that to be an economist new anchor, you should know something about Economics??!

theWCH

You don't miss by that much. You lie at first to save face, you later tell the truth because independent firms will find out anyways. You say "OOps" .. And push it under the rug. Because as ignorant imbeciles like Dennis Kneal would gladly tell you, as long as the S&P is increasing, the Real Economics figures don't matter.

[edit on 8/1/2009 by Rockpuck]

Originally posted by Rockpuck

THE STOCK MARKET DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ECONOMY!

[edit on 8/1/2009 by Rockpuck]

Very true, a battle that I fight with the Bubblevision fans everyday...

The charade can only continue for a little while longer.....When it finally pops most of the CNBC "talent" (especially DK) will fall back to turning tricks for a cans of spam and stale saltines

of course you guys are all correct.
the economy is like a smouldering time bomb.
it is a huge ponzi scheme
as said before, the markets do not reflect the economy.
there is no sigificant increase in inflation yet due to all the dollar printing
the stock market surges, more dollars in circulation & artificially low inflation figures means increased values of american companies.
Goldmans are manipulating this final rally to squeeze every last dollar out of joe public before they bring it all down.
when it all collapses, watch food and essentials prices soar.
there will be blood.

THE ABOVE STATEMENT IS MY OPINION ONLY

PEACE,
RK

Originally posted by silent thunder
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Great post, topic OP, thanks.

I've heard it called a "Great Recession" before but I think before we finish we will definitely be in a true Depression. Unfortunately we don't have a president like Abraham Lincoln or Andrew Jackson at this juncture. You want to talk about "change" look to them because we are at a point in history where we need a president willing to make radical change. Jackson closed the Central Bank (equivalant to today's Fed) and basically enraged the bankers beyond belief. But he was too big a man to care. Result: 4 decades of relative prosperity.

Lincoln also acted contrary to the howls of the Bankers and created the Greenback.

We need an administraion and congress with the stones to make similarly radical moves. Simply close the Fed -- end central banking in America -- this is within the range of the President/Congress but unfortunately the office of the presidency has been turned into a simpering sock-puppetry for the Goldman Sachs Alumuni Societies (ie the Fed and the Treasury). Result: These scumbags are running the economy into the ground for fun and profit (mostly profit). Its more complex than that but you get the pic.

Even in the early 80s our Fed chairman was Vokler, who was willing to Jack interest rates close to 20%. He was heavily criticized for the extreme short-term pain but in the long run it convinced investors the govt was serious and it laid the groundwork for a 20-year boom.

This is the kind of bold, iconoclastic action we need. Close the ******* Fed. Frog-walk orange-jumpsuited CEOs on CNN. Enforce exisiting rights. Makes lawyers useful for once and start a class-action suit against various financial institutions. CUT THE PLANNED SPENDING TO THE BONE and arrange the very configuration of the govt to CUT PORK. Tax relief and incentives for small businesspeople.

Who was the last POTUS that decided to pi$$ off the bankers and the Fed? Was that Kennedy and Executive Order 11110? What happened to him?

Think any other POTUS has the cajones to do it again?

Recession, depression... what does it matter anyway? TIme will tell, and time is not on the side of TPTB because we are riding a wave which will crash to shore eventually, no matter how hard they try to paddle back into the ocean of deceit.

I almost got upset this morning when I was watching Meet the Press and Lawrence Summers was on. He is the director of the National Economic Council which is just an extension of the executive office. If you listen to this guy, the recession is already over. All indicators say so. Nevermind about the ports reporting declining import/exports and a shrinking GDP and increasing unemployment, it is over. Recession done and good times are NOW. Whew! That was a close one!

Folks, you must maintain your focus. I don't think there is anything any politician can do at this point because there is a storm brewing on the horizon. This fall/winter will show exactly how bad the economy really is and it is unwise the drink the kool-aid and start acting like the economy is healed. Live life and enjoy your time with the ones you love. Don't let anybody take that away from you because that is where real 'value' is.

reply to post by nydsdan

Recession, depression... what does it matter anyway?

For some on ATS it's a game. See we predicted a recession back in 2006-2007 was coming, and while we were laughed at for all our silly theories, the Gov declared the Recession at the end of 2007, but did not declare it until mid 2008.

In all likelihood this too will be a depression, so we might as well title it before the Gov. Does the title change anything, yes, it does, it will destroy consumer sentiment.

No one alive today (almost no one anyways) has lived through a depression. Only recessions.

The reason for the propaganda to declare the Recession has ended is, as Christmas comes around, we don't need people sitting on cash .. we need them out there spending, spending, spending. Or else you will see a REAL #@$ storm hit the economy.. And, in fact, it's so important I don't even blame them for desperately trying to comfort people. There may be a shortage of credit and cash in the market, but there is still a large portion of the population unaffected or else, effected little enough to have expendable surpluses.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
There may be a shortage of credit and cash in the market, but there is still a large portion of the population unaffected or else, effected little enough to have expendable surpluses.

This is the mystifying observation for a lot of people...they might know of a few people struggling, but it's not enough to make them take pause and extrapolate what this all might mean for them in the future.

I live in a resort community where they still sell tons and tons of time share every weekend...these misguided souls are still spending $10K-$60K for something they could get on Ebay for free....and they are financing it at above 9% interest...

It's so sad and irritating that the majority of Americans just don't have either the will or the brainpower to see what's coming....like frogs in a slowly heated kettle, they just won't feel it until it's too late

[edit on 2-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

[edit on 2-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I think a lot of it has to do with the way we are brought up. We don't generally see poverty growing up, if your from the Middle Class.. you're taught to expect certain things.. in America we live like Kings.. and I would be wrong to assume we don't deserve that. That's why it's especially painful to watch manufacturing jobs, jobs that produce real wealth, disappearing.. People will do whatever it takes to live a life of comfort and ease, and I don't blame them, we all strive for that. For some of us all it takes is a little house in the woods with a nice front porch to drink a beer on. For others it takes timeshares and BMW's.

This is why I dont bother listening to the propaganda stories from the msm. They want you to invest in the stock market again, buy stuff etc. so they can pull more suckers in before the big crash. You know they're desperate when stores like Sears are already putting up Christmas decoractions getting ready for Christmas sales!!!
Dont be a sucker, ignore those so called financial experts. People start jumping for joy when the dow rises 100 points, but little do they realize that everytime the dow rises it seems like the dollar takes a hit.

Hmmmmm The Recession, how did we get here?

Under the Bush Administration, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.5%,considerably below the average for business cycles from 1949 to 2000.

Bush entered office with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10,587, and the average peaked in October 2007 at over 14,000. When Bush left office, the average was at 7,949, one of the lowest levels of his presidency.

By October 2008, due to increases in domestic and foreign spending, the national debt had risen to $11.3 trillion,an increase of over 100% from the start of the year 2000 when the debt was $5.6 trillion.

In December 2007, the United States entered the longest post-World War II recession, which included a housing market correction, a subprime mortgage crisis, soaring oil prices, and a declining dollar value.

Source

Oh yea, that's why.



[edit on 19-8-2009 by kinda kurious]

reply to post by kinda kurious


And? ... I assume there was something you were going to add your self besides the news articles? Like..... the reason for the articles?

reply to post by Rockpuck


I prefaced and closed my post.

I'll just let he FACTS speak for themselves.

Is there a problem with that?

reply to post by kinda kurious


It has nothing to do with the thread? I find it weird you would dig up this thread from the forum to post something like that, that's all. I don't see the purpose?

We in the Melt Down forum know how we got here.. except the vast majority of us as secular, and we prefer the economic explanation as to why we are in a depression not "Bush did it. Obama did it." type BS.

Keep that crap in the politics side of ATS, we are equal opportunity haters in the Melt Down forum.

reply to post by kinda kurious


even obama gave up blaming Bush a while ago.Got anything else to derail the thread with?Man you need a new spiel!Your buddy/coworker is over here praising Bawney Fwank why don't you join him? www.abovetopsecret.com...

he's getting his butt kicked pretty good,he could use your help.