US Gov't out of wheat. Completely., page 1
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Topic started on 1-8-2009 @ 12:26 PM by gatorboi117

US Gov't out of wheat. Completely.


www.rumormillnews.com
IDAHO FALLS, ID - Quietly, the last of the U.S. government's wheat reserves, held in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust, were sold in late May onto the domestic market for cash. The cash was put in a trust for food aid. With no other government wheat holdings, U.S. government wheat stocks are now totally exhausted.
(visit the link for the full news article)


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 12:42 PM by Maxmars
reply to post by ZeroKnowledge



Perhaps they are just cycling out reserve while they are not spoiled and they will replenish them with next years harvest....

but to 'empty' the reserves seems like a great leap of faith in much that we can't control.


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 12:44 PM by JayinAR
reply to post by Maxmars



Exactly. And as the poster above you said we don't actually have a shortage. Even if this is true, it is just the stuff they keep in the cupboard. There is still a ton of it being grown.

If the Gov sold their stash it is because they don't want it around, for whatever reason...

Maybe it was reaching the limits on its shelf-life and sold it so it wouldn't lose all of its nutritional value... OR... maybe they are going to use this factoid to create a culture of fear.

Or maybe it is both. The Government loves to keep people afraid... for whatever reason.


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 01:14 PM by IDK88
reply to post by gatorboi117



The Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust is a food reserve for Public Law (P.L. 480) administered under the authority of the Secretary of Agriculture. This reserve is available to meet emergency humanitarian food needs in developing countries, allowing the United States to respond to unanticipated food crises with U.S. commodities.

We have plenty of Wheat...but we just won't be sending out as much as Aid. Don't hoard the Cheerios!


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 01:15 PM by GreenBicMan
If you take a look at this chart

www.mongabay.com...

It shows that there was a big run up last year and that would make sense if we were dumping all we could at that time if this is the case actually.

If you disregard that move it looks like its just been tranding all in the same over that time.

We prob. make an excellent move if we cashed in on this on the CBOT, which I am sure we did.


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 01:21 PM by IDK88
Up to 4 million metric tons of U.S. wheat, corn, sorghum, and rice can be kept in reserve. As of Jan. 15, 2006, the Emerson Trust held about 915,000 metric tons of wheat and $107 million in cash. The cash can be used to administer activities or to purchase commodities not held in the Trust.

The reserve was originally authorized by the Agricultural Trade Act of 1980 as the Food Security Wheat Reserve. Subsequent legislation broadened the number of commodities that can be held in the reserve and, in 1998, it was renamed the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust. The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 reauthorized the Emerson Trust through 2007.

Guidelines for Release: The Secretary of Agriculture is authorized to release commodities from the reserve to meet unanticipated emergency needs that cannot otherwise be met under Title II of P.L. 480, the U.S. government’s major humanitarian food aid program. Each fiscal year, the Secretary can release up to 500,000 metric tons, plus up to another 500,000 metric tons that could have been, but was not, released in prior years. The Secretary is also authorized to release eligible commodities for use under all titles of P.L. 480 if domestic supplies of those commodities are determined to be in limited supply and would not meet the availability criteria of P.L. 480.

All commodities in the reserve and all donations made using the reserve are U.S. commodities.

Guidelines for Replenishment and Reimbursement: The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) may be reimbursed for the value of U.S. commodities released from the Emerson Trust from either P.L. 480 appropriations or direct appropriations for reimbursement. The CCC may then use that reimbursement to replenish commodities released. Direct appropriations may also be used for replenishment. Reimbursement to the CCC for ocean freight and related noncommodity costs occurs through the regular USDA appropriations process.

We have plenty of everything...this is America.


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 01:29 PM by fraterormus
Well, this may explain a few oddities I've heard recently.

All of the stores in my area have been limiting bulk rice & grain purchases to 50lbs per family per week. Apparently this must be a Distributor based thing because all of the restaurants in my area have been screaming about the rice & grain rationing adversely impacting their ability to do business.

Even though we are a large producer of wheat we do have Farm Subsidies to protect farmers when the value of particular crop falls below commodity rates we pay the farmers to destroy that crop that they've grown.

In the past 10 years Wheat Subsidies have grown higher than corn, oats and barley which have traditionally been the highest recipients of Farm Subsidies. The US has drawn international criticism, even from Canada, Australia, the EU, and the WTO for the "Strategic Subsidies" the U.S. Export Enhancement Program (EEP) has been giving to Wheat Farmers to artificially inflate Wheat Prices on the International Market.

The U.S. routinely provides in excess of $1,000,000,000.00 a year to Wheat Farmers alone to destroy their wheat crops.

For the fact that we are the 4th largest producer of wheat, but the number 1 exporter of wheat, this all of a sudden makes sense, especially in the current Economic Crisis.

Last year the U.S. exported 27.6 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat, which is about 41% of what was produced in the U.S. World trade in 2008/09 was 136 MMT so the U.S. accounted for nearly about 20% of all the world's wheat exports. By comparison, in 2007/08, the U.S. exported 34 million metric tons, comprising 30% of world wheat exports.

So, last year our Market Share dropped 10% and we exported 6.4 million metric tons of less wheat than the year previous. This year, our exports of wheat to date have dropped dropped 47% from last year. That's less than 12 MMT!

To keep the amount of Revenue from Wheat Exports the same as it was in 2007/08, the U.S. strategically creates an artificial shortage of Wheat in 2008/09 by boosting Wheat Subsidies to U.S. Wheat Farmers who must destroy their crop. This costs the U.S. @ $1,000,000,000.00 but increases the value of our Exports significantly to where the remaining wheat that we have to Export is still valued at $16,000,000,000.00. As demand for our Wheat Exports in 2009 has fallen 47% we need to boost the value 47% to make the same.

To any skeptics that this strategically forced Wheat Shortage isn't having an effect, just since that article posted by the OP was released, the value of U.S. Wheat Exports have reached $5.30/bushel, or a 2.3% gain in value in just 7 Trading Days! The more pronounced the Wheat Shortage becomes, the higher in demand it will become and the value will continue to increase.

This is the same old U.S. Economic Protectionism we have played for the past 10 years in the Wheat Market.

What it means to us is that

a.) Wheat prices will be at an all time high in the U.S. meaning a loaf of bread will be unbelievable in cost.

b.) consumers *WILL* feel the wheat shortage because there really is one, albeit artificially manipulated by the USDA and the U.S. Export Enhancement Program. The more consumers feel the shortage and panic, the higher it will drive up the value of wheat.


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 01:34 PM by GreenBicMan
reply to post by fraterormus



If you think wheat prices will be at an all time high please look at the chart I just posted.

It would be foolish to think you would see two formations like that appear in a trending market such as wheat.

All commodities make irrational runs at one point (gold,wheat,soybeans,roses,hogs,etc..) all of them

This is all IMO of course and after a historical run like we just had year or so ago the chances of seeing something like that again in that market at least are very very low percentage wise.



reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 01:47 PM by fraterormus
Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to
post by fraterormus



If you think wheat prices will be at an all time high please look at the chart I just posted.


Actually that would be consistent with what I posted. Last year there was a 10% drop in our Wheat Exports, so we manipulated a shortage using Wheat Subsidies to drive up the value of Wheat 23% per MT.

This artificially induced Wheat Shortage is attempting to do the same, but we are hoping to drive up the value of Wheat 47% per MT or roughly $575,000 per MT.

I hope you are right that we won't be able to do it again, because although it would be good for U.S. Farmers and the U.S. Dollar, it would be disastrous to consumers to have the commodity price of wheat be driven up to an unprecedented $575,000 per MT.


reply posted on 1-8-2009 @ 01:52 PM by GreenBicMan
reply to post by fraterormus



I mean in a market, you can never say you will be correct because it is far too random.

But at least historically speaking, this would be a MAJOR MAJOR feat to overcome, especially with that bearish H&S we made previously..

Looks like back to trending again honestly, but I have been wrong before.
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