Solar Eclipse influenced - 100 year high tides and Earthquakes happening now near India?

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by EvolvedMinistry

 

Did you read my post? If an eclipse has an extraordinary effect on tides, why are the tides not highest directly under the eclipse on the day of the eclipse? Why is the tide 17% higher three months after the eclipse?

I guess you missed this too, posted by Blaine91555 earlier in this thread. There were no extraordinarily high tides in Mumbai.

Last week the SoI slammed the BMC for creating panic by declaring the5.05-metre high tide expected on July 24 as the highest of the century. Its research cell, in a letter to the civic agency, said tides of this height are normal for Mumbai.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com...

You must have missed this too, posted by me. The high waves and resultant increase in local sea levels were caused by a storm at sea.

“There’s a storm out at sea. We can tell how violent it is, and how high the tide will rise from the wind,’’ says Khatim. “Did we know the tide was going to be this high today? Of course, the wind told us,’’ she retorts.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com...

Scientific process? Demonstrate it for me. I've shown you an example of a higher tide occurring 3 months after an eclipse than occurred during an eclipse. Show me some cases of higher tides occurring during an eclipse as opposed to any other new moon. That's a beginning. Saying something happened at the same time as something else and that proves the one caused the other is not science. Even if there were a correlation (which there isn't), there is an important statement which is used when employing the scientific method; "correlation does not imply causality".

Yes I read your post. As it were, you are an intelligent and thorough individual for sure. However, the earth can just as easily experience the "after effects" of the lunar activity and have no symptoms before, or during the process. Have you ever gone to sleep before and then woke up in the morning sick as a dog??? Same principle. There doesn't have to be some grand build up for these things to occur. Typically, there are no warnings before an earthquake will rip through a countryside. Everything is normal one second, and then BOOM. You're rummaging through the shambles of your life. So, just because there are not warning signs to indicate that the eclipse is having an effect, does not mean that the earth was not affected by the lunar and solar alignment.

There were scientists who made accurate predictions derived from a computer model. Although he was incorrect about a major tsunami, his assessment was correct in the shifting of tectonic plates as a result.

Here is that link.

www.armageddononline.org...

Its a PDF file, therefore I'm wondering about its ability to function here on ATS. But, we'll try it.


Interestingly enough, mainstream scientists rejected his theory and according to the results, he proved them pretty much incorrect. If there is no causal relationship, then how was this guy able to call this correctly? COINCIDENCE I SUPPOSE. Its a PDF file, therefore I'm wondering about its ability to function here on ATS. But, we'll try it.

Here's another one posted by some random guy on 1-8-09. His facts seem to be well researched and he provides many charts to support his view.

www.garagegames.com...

Here's another one that is a mirror image of the first link that I provided, in case it didn't work.

tipakan.com...

So, whether you believe that there is a causal relationship, many other scientists and theorists do. And according to some of their projections, they seemed to be right on the money.

Originally posted by pazcat
reply to [evolvedministry]

 

At what point did i say lunar activity does not have an effect, infact i believe i actually said that large tides are normally caused by the new/full moon earlier. I merely directed you to a post previously which you choose to ignore, thats fine. I didnt write that article in the link and never claimed too, maybe you should accuse that guy of a superiority complex.
Why so interested in my history fellow lowly ATSer? Surely my opinion is just as valid as yours. Im not the one with an axe to grind, but you seemingly have a strong dislike of skeptics joining up 2 weeks or so ago and giving us this little gem www.abovetopsecret.com...

Well, if I misunderstood you, then so be it. However, aren't you the one that questioned whether I read another post contradicting my post to Phage? And secondly, this isn't about skepticism, its about actual information. Its cool to be a skeptic when its information that cannot be validated (UFO's, aliens, conspiracy theories involving corrupt governments etc) However, when it is something that there are equal amounts of mainstream facts which support the evidence...then, I typically call someone for what they are.

I don't remember being interested in your history. I merely said that if you had credentials the superseded the credentials of the scientist who was practicing "bad science" then you should provide them.

And yes...I'm proud of my little gem. I hope others go and read it. Thank you for the publicity.

[edit on 28-7-2009 by EvolvedMinistry]

reply to post by EvolvedMinistry

There were scientists who made accurate predictions derived from a computer model. Although he was incorrect about a major tsunami, his assessment was correct in the shifting of tectonic plates as a result.

Here is that link.
www.armageddononline.org...

He says there might be tectonic uplift south of Japan. There was none. The Andaman islands are 2,000 miles from the boundary of the Filipino plate and the Eurasian plate. Accurate? Really? For you maybe, if you really want the prediction to be real, but not for me. The path of the eclipse was nowhere near the Andamans.

Your second link reiterates the same erroneous claim about eclipses causing tides to be higher than other spring tides, that the increase in tidal forces causes tectonic activity. This is incorrect. Historical data shows this to be incorrect. It is just wrong. Pretty drawings and maps mean nothing. I ask again for some evidence that it is true. Science is after all, about evidence.

For example; actual tide measurements at Kawaihai Harbor, Hawaii. In the path of the eclipse of 1991.
Data from here:
Water levels

Highest tide on July 11, the day of the eclipse: 2.37 ft
Highest tide in July (July 13): 2.45 ft
Highest tide of 1991, December 21: 2.85 ft
Average new moon tide level for 1991: 2.18 ft

The highest tide on the day of the eclipse was 3% lower than the highest tide of the month (2 days after the eclipse).

The highest tide of July was 17% lower than the highest tide of 1991, which occurred more than 5 months after the eclipse. There were other tides equal to and greater than the "eclipse tide".

Eclipses do not affect tides. They do not cause earthquakes. There is no data which suggests they do. It is ignorance of what tidal forces are which leads to little more than a superstitious belief that there is any relationship.

[edit on 7/28/2009 by Phage]

reply to post by Jnewell33


how about the people who are claiming the link ` eclipse = higer tides ` actually post the data that demonstrates it ???

that is afterall the way REAL science works

expecting the ske[ptics to do all the research and analysis on every crackpot theory thats floated at ATS is just lasy and ignorant

the ` you debunk it or it is still valid ` thinking is just utter twaddle - if people belevive in thier theories they should research them themselves

so - the data for tide heights and eclipses is all readily availiable - if there is a link show it or STFU

I already asked on the linked subject of eclipses and earthquakes - and no one stepped up to the challenge

From USGS FAQs - Earthquakes, Faults, Plate Tectonics, Earth Structure:

Q: Can the position of the moon or the planets affect seismicity?

A: The moon, sun, and other planets have an influence on the earth in the form of perturbations (small changes) to the gravitational field. The relative amount of influence is proportional to the objects mass, and inversely proportional to the third power of its distance from the earth.

The stresses induced in the earth by an extraterrestrial mass are proportional to the gravitational field gradient dg( r ) / dr
and NOT to the gravitational field g( r ).

g( r ) = GMm / r^2

thus:

dg( r ) / dr = -2 * g( r ) / r = -2GMm / r^3

Many studies in the past have shown no significant correlations between the rate of earthquake occurrence and the semi-diurnal tides when using large earthquake catalogs.

Several recent studies, however, have found a correlation between earth tides (caused by the position of the moon relative to the earth) and some types of earthquakes.

One study, for example, concludes that during times of higher earth and ocean tides, such as during times of full or new moon, earthquakes are more likely on shallow thrust faults near the edges of continents and in (underwater) subduction zones. Lunar or solar eclipses represent, of course, special cases of full and new moon, but do not cause any special or different tidal effects from full and new moon. Earth tides (Earth's surface going up and down by a couple of centimeters) and especially ocean tides (surface of the ocean going up and down by a meter or more) raise and lower the confining pressure on shallow, dipping faults near continental edges and in subduction zones. When the confining pressure is lessened, the faults are unclamped and more likely to slip. The increased probability is a factor of ~3 during high tides. But you must stop are realize that the background probability is, in general, very low in a given place and year (fractions of a percent), so that raising this tiny probability by a factor of 3 during high tides still results in a very tiny probability.

There have also been some small but significant correlations reported between the semi-diurnal tides and the rate of occurrence of aftershocks in some volcanic regions, such as Mammoth Lakes. (UC Berkeley)

Conclusion: eclipses do not directly affect earthquakes. Thread closed!

[edit on 2009/7/28 by Shirakawa]

reply to post by Shirakawa

Edit...because you caught it yourself.


[edit on 7/28/2009 by Phage]

Nasty,something is happening to the earth.this could be only the beginning.

Common since? If the moon pulls on the Earth, and the sun pulls on the earth, then duh? of course things like this are gonna happen.

reply to post by JalZhaunlUss


extensive studies have revealed that the much vaunted ` common ` sense - is infact astonishingly rare

One interesting phenomena, a relative who was on Guam during the eclipse reported that the wind and tides stopped during the eclipse which scared the islanders so much that many left work and hid in their homes for the rest of the day. The moon indisputably affects tidal and crustal action, it will be interesting to see if there is an actual increase in eruptions, tropical storm activity and related phenomena. Another great thread girl!

Maybe it wasn't clear enough. Here's it again in a shorter version:

Source: USGS Earthquakes FAQ

Q: Can the position of the moon or the planets affect seismicity?

[...] Several recent studies, [...], have found a correlation between earth tides (caused by the position of the moon relative to the earth) and some types of earthquakes.

One study, for example, concludes that during times of higher earth and ocean tides, such as during times of full or new moon, earthquakes are more likely on shallow thrust faults near the edges of continents and in (underwater) subduction zones.

Lunar or solar eclipses represent, of course, special cases of full and new moon, but do not cause any special or different tidal effects from full and new moon

[...] The increased probability is a factor of ~3 during high tides. But you must stop and realize that the background probability is, in general, very low in a given place and year (fractions of a percent), so that raising this tiny probability by a factor of 3 during high tides still results in a very tiny probability.

Originally posted by ignorant_ape
reply to post by JalZhaunlUss

 

extensive studies have revealed that the much vaunted ` common ` sense - is infact astonishingly rare

On this planet...common sense is a superpower. Meaning, everyone who does not utilize it are literally, the mere mortals. Nuff said.