Thanks again, SLAYER69, for the continued topic/invite.
One thing that might save us to some extent (short of total regional military domination, which seems a pipe-dream to me at this point) is the fact
that every major oil/gas producer in the region wants to DIVERSIFY its customers. For example, currently Iran's biggest customer for oil is JAPAN,
not CHINA. They do not want to be controlled completely by Russia or China any more than they want to be controlled by the USA or the big Western oil
majors. So they are trying to balance their customers. Pretty much every other oil/gas power in Central Asia and the Middle East has a similar policy,
or would like to.
So...Rather than seeing China, Russia, or India as a new regional hegemon to replace the Western oil majors and their gov'ts, one could conceive of a
multipolar petrochem policy becoming the defacto regional orthodoxy. This isn't is great for the USA as some other possible outcomes, and things
won't be as cozy as in the old days, but its better than being squeezed out entirely.
Don't forget, also, as most of you are aware, the "proven" petroleum and natty-gas reserves of these various nations are wildly overstated and have
been for decades. Additional exploration may bring new resources but we can't count on it for sure. Ominously for the US, a lot of the recent
exploration in the region is being done by the state-owned Russian and Chinese petrogiants. The old Western oil majors ("the seven sisters") are
dropping the ball. Although Western petrogiants still show up near the top of the Fortune 500, ahead of Gazprom or Sinopec, much of their stated
income may be based on financial shenanagans or simply coasting on old glory and resting on their laurels. Not good.
[edit on 7/25/09 by silent thunder]