World Prepares to Dump the Dollar

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posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 07:09 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by SLAYER69
 


I like that chart/graph.

Most people dont realize Microsoft earns about as much as the GDP of some smaller countries lol..

Our industry (minus cars and financials lol) is still turning out things and our corp's are the worlds biggest.

But either way you slice it we could still wield power with just appl and msft.

Part of the reason M$ does so well is that it sells a lot of its software
to the Federal, State, and Local governments.

Here recently M$ saw a pull back of 29% on its profits.

Windows 7 is likely to fix some of this, but for 27 million ppl
without a full time job they are not likely to buy a new computer.

In a lot of government offices to save money they are starting to
deploy Linux instead of windows.

There are a lot of biased bought off polls saying one is better than
the other, but never the less the trend is happening.

All the schools in japan went to linux, the entire city of houston went
to linux, and so on.

The NSA even came out in favor of security enhanced linux.

World of Warcraft is just a game played by a few million ppl,
but it now runs on linux.

The largest increase in Dell server sales was blades doing
VMware or one of its clones, to host virtual M$ servers to
save companies money on M$ licenses.

The new google OS is soon to be out as well.

Things like this spell trouble for M$.

Apple thou is going to be around a bit longer with their great mp3 players
until the japanese figure out how to do it better.

Japan is not the great innovator, but they can take an idea and
make it better and cheaper, and countries in Asia will do the
manufacturing.

China's prison labor is a good example of a price that simply will
never be beaten.





[edit on 25-7-2009 by Ex_MislTech]




posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 07:12 AM
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Originally posted by dooper
reply to post by SLAYER69
 

Thanks for those numbers SLAYER. They're also buying $18Billion in gold, and when the IMF had something like 2-3 tons of gold and were going to sell off a ton or two, it was China and India that suggested selling off the whole batch.


It was not $18 Billion in Gold in the latest purchase.

China buys $80 billion in gold

It was $80 Billion in Gold bought by China.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 07:21 AM
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Originally posted by Dragonfly79
Maybe houses will become government property and given to the homeless, along with a food distribution system this should make most people happy enough to keep going.


I wish you were right, but like a tick with spotted fever it doesn't
care if the host dies. So the government is bulldozing empty
houses to try to recover property values so they can keep getting
their tax money.

Bulldozing homes in Cali

Dozens of US cities to bulldoze homes

I find it amazing that you bulldoze a house just to bleed more tax
money out of your citizens.

This is why I make the statement that the US is being killed by
parasites at the top and parasites at the bottom, that care not
that they are killing their host.

The USA is becoming a dying host with a parasitic infestation
that is bleeding it dry with no thought to the country, its children,
its future, or respect to those who made it possible from the past.





[edit on 25-7-2009 by Ex_MislTech]



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 07:31 AM
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Originally posted by badgerprints

Originally posted by ChemBreather
reply to post by warrenb
 


Your neighbour, your friends who rediculed you whilst you saw it coming and prepared your self and your family.

They will blame you for not warning them and try to take your stash, sad but true !!


Sad but probably quite accurate. You will also be labeled an opportunist and a hoarder and will likely get the short end of the stick when it comes to the powers that be and their new emergency legislation.


This is EXACTLY why I said get the hell out of the cities when it
starts to fall apart.

Ppl are notorious about looking for someone other than themselves
to blame for all their troubles.

You want a taste, pull up some video on the LA riots, and read
a bit about it.

If you are the latest scapegoat to direct the heat off the politicians
you will be headline news much like the cop is right now for arresting
someone that REFUSED to show ID.

The arrogant jack arse who wouldn't show his damn ID did not count
on the black cop sticking up for his white co-worker.

Now that is a sign of progress, Kudos for the black cop that believes
the truth is more important than color.

It is truly Friggin sad that our president doesn't have the brains that
the black cop obviously has achieved.

Again, back on target, when it happens, those who stay will be blamed
for crimes and hauled off then ppl will move in to pillage what is left
unguarded.

Stay in the concrete jungles at your peril.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 07:32 AM
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Originally posted by gelly
Isn't everyone basically stuck with the dollar? If China or Japan dumps how can it go unnoticed without devaluing what they already have. You can't sell without a buyer... Am I looking at it too simple?


Japan is in no position to dump the dollar - and China is not in a 'strong' position to do so .. apparently.

While you hear a lot about China's large US forex reserves, you hear a lot less about their huge commodities stockpile that they amassed at fire sale prices during this economic slowdown. Also you don't hear a lot about their own massive internal debt instruments issued to prevent inflation - what the US often called 'currency manipulation'.

When you hear about an economy 'dumping' the dollar - what it means is they are selling dollars for other things. In this case China is converting dollars into cheap commodities, also resources in Africa and elsewhere, real estate around the world, and it is also converting to other currencies - mainly by doing currency swaps with Russia, Brazil and India to name the main bloc partners. To effect these swaps - China has to increase its money supply - but it can do so without incurring inflationary pressure, in fact it can do so to balance its trade surplus.

Not only that - but China has huge capacity to expand the yuan supply, as it has been issuing internal debt instruments to keep mopping up the supply of yuan inside China for years - these instruments can be monetized, and used to plant massive supplies of yuan into foreign economies (using currency swaps) with zero inflationary pressure resulting from it.

If China can hugely increase its global supply of yuan without inflationary effects - then it has the effect of diluting its $US holdings - without even selling 1$US.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 08:15 AM
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Originally posted by Amagnon

Originally posted by gelly
Isn't everyone basically stuck with the dollar? If China or Japan dumps how can it go unnoticed without devaluing what they already have. You can't sell without a buyer... Am I looking at it too simple?


Japan is in no position to dump the dollar - and China is not in a 'strong' position to do so .. apparently.


Well if you wanted to dump dollars secretly you'd sell off your bonds
and T-bills thru back channels and thru countries that offer a lot of
banking secrecy.

The bond saga gets odd...

Your question, has that for an ugly answer.

Let us hope it does not start a run on US T-bills and bonds because
once it starts, its a long ways to the bottom.



[edit on 25-7-2009 by Ex_MislTech]



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 09:37 AM
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Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Originally posted by xoxo stacie
The trick is that while you are choosing who your best and brightest are you must also choose those who are going to benefit you and the rest in the group.


You can't just ignore the country with the most powerful military, thousands of nuclear weapons, 900 trillion in assets and 300 million people with huge resources (iron, coal, natural gas) with one of the most stable governments. "Maybe if we close our eyes, the U.S. will just disappear and we just don't have to include them anymore at our parties".
Problem is, and Im surprised more people dont "get this", If the world stops supporting us almost everything you listed turns to #. Other nations LOAN US MONEY so we can have a big military... If all nations just acted like we didnt exist we would be no more powerful than Iran.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 10:38 AM
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reply to post by shug7272
 


You don't get it. The world doesn't support the United States. Albeit we couldn't live out total consumerism and not produce anything if we weren't "loaned" money by other countries, but if we still had the most powerful military and economy when we were a creditor nation, how could we only be on the level of Iran without other countries? And countries don't LOAN us money for US. The only reason why they loan us our money for interest is so it can inflate the global economy and create jobs for their billions of impoverished people still sh*tting in the ground...I am sorry but if you think developing countries are not totally dependent on this system where it is all inflation and debt to create false senses of prosperity for all, then you are mistaken. The U.S. could survive without this system, though out standard of living would be much less...developing countries would be in the stone age still without this system.




posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 11:01 AM
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maybe i am wrong but, when the USA changed from gold reserves to oil reserves, your paper dollar gave you spending power =to abc,
The oil control was the best idea the american goverrnment could think of, because oil was bought with dollars and foreign countries needed vast amounts of oil, and so mostly were buying oil from the usa, monopoly

the problem was the euro started to become more strong , the dollar weaker, iraq did not want to sell their oil for a currency that was weakening, the rest is history.
USA was the strongest country, the superpower, when you are rich you can buy what you want ,but once lots of money leaves the country for cheaper imports, how do you get it back to circulate?
India,China,Russia and the Eec, have all become much stronger nations, i think they will decide the outcome of the usa,s future



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 11:37 AM
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Originally posted by Ex_MislTech

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Originally posted by burntheships
reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


No he is not "retarded"...that is Karl Denninger.

You may not agree with him, but I would venture to say he has extensive experience that far outweighs yours.

Name calling...bad taste.


I have seen some of his quotes about how the bond market was going to crash etc... all garbage.

And if you can tell me in any fashion how a market that moves tick by tick every second could be construed to be front running trades in front of the DX?

It is impossible.

Sorry, if ANYONE can refute me I will delete my name and never come back on this board. I swear.


Well first I don't want you to delete your account, and secondly
you make a good sounding board against the highly optimistic.

What can front run trades is the missing goldman sachs software.

High Frequency trading software

Goldman had somehow managed to see what orders ppl were buying
and could make a move before those ppl bought, that in turn would
benefit Goldman.

federal prosecutor said could “manipulate markets in unfair ways”

This came to light and the implications when an employee stole the
software and uploaded to an eastern bloc sever in europe.



I honestly would if anyone could prove me wrong. It is impossible, trust me. You cannot front run the ES-MINI.

The things that you are speaking of are only for LIQUIDITY PROVIDERS FOR THE CME - they ARE NOT MONEY MACHINES - they are good for us because retail players like us can unload contracts without having to worry about a big spread.

The LIQUIDITY PROVIDERS either make a small amount in shares or contracts but are not like shorting you out or anything.. its not like that.. but people dont understand this and just go the way of what they hear. Unless you know how this all works, I can see how it would be impossible to understand.

I commented in the thread about this - about how all this matt t. was BS from rolling stone.. I know a lot about this sort of thing, and I promise you there is no way he could even have an idea what he is talking about here.

Which makes me think he is all BS.. which would make sense bc I do feel like he prays on a certain "subset" of people... at least no one pays him a subscrip. fee like that other fraud (R)



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 11:44 AM
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Originally posted by Ex_MislTech

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by SLAYER69
 


I like that chart/graph.

Most people dont realize Microsoft earns about as much as the GDP of some smaller countries lol..

Our industry (minus cars and financials lol) is still turning out things and our corp's are the worlds biggest.

But either way you slice it we could still wield power with just appl and msft.

Part of the reason M$ does so well is that it sells a lot of its software
to the Federal, State, and Local governments.

Here recently M$ saw a pull back of 29% on its profits.

Windows 7 is likely to fix some of this, but for 27 million ppl
without a full time job they are not likely to buy a new computer.

In a lot of government offices to save money they are starting to
deploy Linux instead of windows.

There are a lot of biased bought off polls saying one is better than
the other, but never the less the trend is happening.

All the schools in japan went to linux, the entire city of houston went
to linux, and so on.

The NSA even came out in favor of security enhanced linux.

World of Warcraft is just a game played by a few million ppl,
but it now runs on linux.

The largest increase in Dell server sales was blades doing
VMware or one of its clones, to host virtual M$ servers to
save companies money on M$ licenses.

The new google OS is soon to be out as well.

Things like this spell trouble for M$.

Apple thou is going to be around a bit longer with their great mp3 players
until the japanese figure out how to do it better.

Japan is not the great innovator, but they can take an idea and
make it better and cheaper, and countries in Asia will do the
manufacturing.

China's prison labor is a good example of a price that simply will
never be beaten.





[edit on 25-7-2009 by Ex_MislTech]


I dont see google OS taking off anytime soon (although who knows) but MSFT still reported earnings of over 13.1 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE FISCAL 4th QUARTER.

They sit on more cash than most nations could dream.

They dont need to worry about anything and were hit mostly by weak PC demand (which will be picking up if you follow INTC)

Anyways, while these are the "standouts" along with AAPL - I am not worried I guess.. it still shows there is demand and just because they missed the top line by 1 billion they still made 13.1...

Although, I am certainly not an analyst, nor would I want to be.. but that really wasn't my point either lol

Either way, REDHAT (maker of linux) is a corp in the USA - so we win both sides hahaha!!!



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 12:52 PM
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Originally posted by Ex_MislTech

Again, I understand ppl preach the power of positive thinking.

But history shows us bad things happen.

BRIC calls for SDR to replace dollar as world reserve currency





Not positive thinking. I'm looking at the FACTS!

B.R.I.C.

Brazil
Russia
India
China

Lets look at this rationally shall we?



Brazil


Although the SML seeks to gradually eliminate the dollar from the bilateral trade, the currency will continue its presence in transactions between Brazil and Argentina, as their central banks will set the exchange rate for the real and the peso with respect to the dollar.




Russia

The majority of Russian companies, banks and most of the Russian population started to purchase enormous amounts of foreign currencies at the end of 2008. The dollar gained 16 percent and the euro 13.5 percent over the fourth quarter. The demand on the US dollar was extremely high, and the Central Bank was forced to spend a big part of its dollar assets, experts say.

The change of the structure of the currency portfolio of the Bank of Russia has not affected the official peg of the dual currency basket, which includes $0.55 and 0.45 EUR.

The investments of the Bank of Russia in state securities of foreign issuers have been considerably increased, the report said. About a third of Russia’s international reserves are based on US Treasury bonds.

Russia became one of the largest creditors of the US administration last year, the US Department of the Treasury said. Russia increased its investments in the debt securities of the US Treasury from $32.7 billion as of December 2007 to $116.4 billion as of December 2008.



India

Emerging-Market Dependence
For all the complaints about the dollar, emerging markets such as India remain dependent on the currency of the U.S., the world’s largest economy and a $2.5 trillion export market. The IMF said June 30 that the share of dollars in global foreign- exchange reserves increased to 65 percent in the first three months of this year, the highest since 2007.



China


“We can’t force our clients to use a certain currency for trade settlement,”

Dollar’s Dominance

“The U.S. dollar will remain as the world’s major reserve and trade currency for a long time,” said Zhang. “It would be quite good if yuan trade can account for 20 percent of the total foreign trade of China in the imaginable future.”




BRIC Reserve Currency Plans Won’t Undermine Dollar, RBC Says


For China to raise concern about the dollar while holding almost $2 trillion of assets in the U.S. currency would be like “shooting yourself in the foot” because it would put downward pressure on the value of those assets, Nick Chamie, Toronto- based global head of emerging markets research at RBC Capital, wrote in a report today.



Bloomberg data.


“Rising domestic tensions in emerging-market nations emanating from intense economic pressures make blaming the U.S. and its currency for the global recession an easy option for many governments,” Chamie wrote in the report. “This also helps deflect attention away from arguments that they brought this upon themselves through their policy of foreign exchange intervention to keep their currencies undervalued versus the dollar.”




China Cant do it in reality that would be like shooting themselves in the foot. India is relying on it to keep their growing economy happening. Russia does so little business with the US that it really doesn't matter what they do anyway. Brazil will still use the dollar in a dual status not replace it.

I'm not ignorant to the facts. They are trying but there is little to nothing out there in the next 10 to 15 years to replace the dollar. Many things can happen both good or bad. In the meantime we should set about getting our house back in order.

Nothing is written in stone.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 02:44 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 
I dont see google OS taking off anytime soon (although who knows) but MSFT still reported earnings of over 13.1 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE FISCAL 4th QUARTER.

They sit on more cash than most nations could dream.

They dont need to worry about anything and were hit mostly by weak PC demand (which will be picking up if you follow INTC)

Anyways, while these are the "standouts" along with AAPL - I am not worried I guess.. it still shows there is demand and just because they missed the top line by 1 billion they still made 13.1...

Although, I am certainly not an analyst, nor would I want to be.. but that really wasn't my point either lol

Either way, REDHAT (maker of linux) is a corp in the USA - so we win both sides hahaha!!!


=====================================

Google OS will be on the many new android phones, and it will
be better than anything out there at this time.

18 or more new Android phones coming

The iPhone will feel a bit of a pinch once the Android phone
hardware catches up and that is why they have partnered with
the major phone manufacturers this time round.

Redhat makes redhat linux, it makes one distro.

Businesses have been using other Distros, and more so with
the higher costs of Redhat.

Many Linux distros are free, like Ubuntu, Slackware, and others.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 02:46 PM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
It is impossible, trust me. You cannot front run the ES-MINI.


Just read the Denninger link , and while I can see how some confusion might prevail , I don't think he's talking about front-running the /ES. As a pundit who has publicly staked his reputation on a broad deflation scenario where "cash is king" , and all asset classes are reduced to fire-sale ashes , he's attempting to reconcile $USD distress and the inverse correlation between $USD/Equities (historical in a weak dollar environment). He cites carry traders as the culprits: borrow USD , convert to higher yielding currency (AUD) , invest the funds in US equities. This I think is the thrust of his commentary...naturally , a perspective that lends a tenuous thread of support to his deflation "thesis."

Emphasis mine....



Welcome To Hell

The last week or two I had noticed that the /DX (dollar index) had a somewhat-odd correlation to the stock market - one that had not been present to the same degree, if present at all, before....

Tuesday I wrote about the dollar decline powering this latest ramp job in equities....

(Dollar Chart)

"That's the dollar, and its diving.

Now exactly why this turns into a rocket ride in the stock market isn't quite clear, but that it happens repeatedly is."



Not present at all , before ? or: it happens repeatedly ?

The value of Gold rises only in relationship to the value of the currency it's priced in. The intrinsic value of Gold doesn't fluctuate...the currency does.

Ditto equities. Rising stock valuations , when viewed from the perspective of purchasing power , closes another chapter in the duh-flationista handbook. To use a hackneyed comparison , check German stock valuations at the height of Weimar inflation


When all else fails; resurrect Nixon's phantom currency speculators....anything but inflation.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 02:47 PM
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reply to post by SLAYER69
 

You can look at my link and think one way, or look at your links
and look at it another way.

I think you will find that several of the nations are tired of
US hegemony and when the time presents itself they will
act to punish the US if they see a clear path out of the sotrm
for them.

Read up on the panic of 1908 and then think on a global scale.

If and when the ppl playing chicken with out worthless T-bills
panic and dump them it is off to the races.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 02:51 PM
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Originally posted by Ex_MislTech
reply to post by SLAYER69
 

You can look at my link and think one way, or look at your links
and look at it another way.



China: US dollar to remain dominance for yrs

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in Rome:
"You may have heard comments, opinions from academic circles about the idea of establishing a super sovereign currency. This is all, I believe, now a discussion among academics. It is not the position of the Chinese government."



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 03:08 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 

I hear what you are saying and under normal circumstances you'd
be right, but what has been done with the high freq trading software
as I posted, they are bending the rules and thus the incoming
fed investigation.



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 03:13 PM
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check out this video


www.youtube.com...



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 03:14 PM
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reply to post by Ex_MislTech
 


Well lets say this..

Lets say old retail investor was using information that was delayed by 20 mins

Investor pays $$ now to see quotes in real time

HF/Institution pays even more to have a server at the site to see the fastest trades..

The only thing that is bad IMO are the people flashing FAKE BID/ASK on the LEVEL II Chart and then when you try to get a fill, you only end up with 10% of that

Everything else is basically providing liquidity in the marketplace.

Yes, there are dark pools where people can make a program to front run large institutional orders. The people that are getting pissed about this ARE THE BIG INSTITUTIONS LIKE GOLDMAN AND FIDELITY -

Well to them I say too bad, adapt or die is the name of the game..

Also, these liquidity providers are FIGHTING AMONGST THEMSELVES for the pennies, not guys like us (retail) they are begging for our volume because they provide liquidity (at a price) which is really fine, i promise

Like I said, the only thing I have a problem with are the L2 Games that are somehow played with co-located servers that play with fake bid/ask volume..

Everything else IMO is totally legit and actually better for the marketplace.. Once people start to understand this 95% of the witch hunt will be over.

If anyone has any other questions I would be glad to answer them



posted on Jul, 25 2009 @ 03:19 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 


---quote from that link----

Specifically, it would move just before the /ES - S&P futures - moved, and the correlation between the two was almost lock-step.


----end quote --------

Hmm...

That is the quote that throws me off.. IMO this could be the only thing that means..

To be honest, its like whatever anyways, but if this is clarified at a later time and he was meaning this (what I am saying) he is far off and he is looking to stir the pot





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