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Hurricane season a breeze — for now.

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posted on Jul, 23 2009 @ 11:12 AM
So we have an Hurricane season is a breeze — for now, and will this mean it will catch-up later with more power built up. ??

'' One year after Hurricane Dolly struck South Texas and became the Rio Grande Valley's most destructive storm in four decades, the tropics are decidedly quieter.

In fact, the Atlantic basin has not gone this deep into hurricane season without a named storm in five years.

Add to that a maturing El Niño in the Pacific, which creates more wind shear over the Atlantic tropics and tends to depress hurricane activity by 20 percent to 40 percent, and the outlook for the rest of the 2009 season looks downright rosy. ''

But don't get too cocky, forecasters say.

Although the first named storm in the Atlantic typically forms by July 10, the real activity doesn't usually begin until August. And a lull in early-season activity does not necessarily indicate a weak overall season.

The 2004 season, for example, didn't see its first storm until Hurricane Alex began developing July 31.

Yet after Alex, the season rapidly took off, finishing with 15 storms and 6 major hurricanes, including Hurricane Ivan. A storm the size of Texas, Ivan was one of the 10 most intense hurricanes ever in the Atlantic basin before striking Gulf Shores, Ala., and causing $19 billion in damage.

And while El Niños may suppress overall activity, such years can still produce savage storms. Hurricane Andrew, one of the three most intense storms at a U.S. landfall, developed during an El Niño in 1992.

So have some of the most famed storms to strike Texas and Louisiana: Alicia (1983), Betsy (1965) and the great storm of 1900, which came during a severe El Niño, said Jill Hasling, president of Houston's Weather Research Center.

“There might be fewer storms during an El Niño,” she said. “But it only takes one.”

During an average Atlantic season, 10 tropical storms or hurricanes develop, but since 1995 the Atlantic has seen an increase in activity that most scientists attribute to a long-term natural pattern.

Given this season's slow start and the onset of El Niño, most seasonal forecasters now say about 10 named storms will form, one of the lowest totals of the past 15 years.

The official start of hurricane season is June 1, but recent years have seen storms form in May.

This happens when frontal boundaries drift south into the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast, producing lingering areas of thunderstorms that sometimes spin into tropical storms, said Chris Hebert, lead hurricane meteorologist at ImpactWeather, a private Houston-based forecasting company.

That almost happened this year.

“We did have a few such features in May and June,” he said. “One made it to tropical depression strength, but none made it to tropical storm strength. So it was pretty close in May and June.”

But as often happens in July — and certainly what has happened this year, with especially hot temperatures — high pressure builds across the gulf and the southeastern states, reducing the chances of hurricane development near the U.S.

July storms often form in the Caribbean, but wind shear and other factors there have combined to create hostile conditions for storms, Hebert said.

Looking later into the season, Hebert says a semi-permanent feature called the Bermuda High, a large area of high pressure just north of the tropics, may be quite strong this year. This would limit development in the deep tropics.

Perhaps as hurricane season progresses, storms will be most likely to develop closer to land in the Caribbean or the gulf, he said.

Hebert and other forecasters say such a possibility should concern emergency management experts because these storms give little warning.

Though Hurricane Alicia was bad, spinning up from a tropical depression Aug. 15, 1983, into a Category 3 hurricane two days later before striking Galveston, there are worse precedents during an El Niño year.

Specifically, there's the largely forgotten Texas hurricane of 1932. That storm formed Aug. 11 in the gulf near the Yucatán Peninsula.

A day and a half later, a Category 4 hurricane, with 145-mph winds, slammed into Freeport

- Hurricane season a breeze - for now -

From Wiki :

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and ACE Index 96.1.[1] NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.[2]

[edit] Pre-season forecasts
On December 10, 2008, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2009 season, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 125). On April 7, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued an updated forecast for the 2009 season, predicting near-average activity (12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100), citing the possible cause as the high probability of a weak El Niño forming during the season.[3] On May 21, 2009, NOAA issued their forecast for the season, predicting near or slightly above average activity, (9 to 14 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 of Category 3 or higher).[4]

[edit] Midseason outlooks
On June 2, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued another updated forecast for the 2009 season, predicting slightly below average activity (11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 85). On June 18, 2009, the UK Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of 6 tropical storms in the July to November period with a 70% chance that the number would be in the range 3 to 9. They also predicted an ACE Index of 60 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 40 to 80.[5]

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2009 season Source Date Named
storms Hurricanes Major
Average (1950–2000) 9.6 5.9 2.3
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– –––––
CSU December 10, 2008 14 7 3
CSU April 7, 2009 12 6 2
NOAA May 21, 2009 9–14 4–7 1–3
CSU June 2, 2009 11 5 2
UKMO June 18, 2009 6* N/A N/A
* July-November only.

posted on Jul, 23 2009 @ 11:30 AM
Only a matter of time before they start forming and jacking up the price of food and gas even higher than it already is. With the economy as bad as it is, a severe Hurricane would only make matters worse. I really hope it does turn out to be a breezy season.

posted on Jul, 23 2009 @ 11:44 AM
Thing is we are only a month into the season (runs June 1st to November 30th) and most of the serious storms take place later in the season. That being said my job is directly impacted by these storms so for the sake of sanity I could use a mild season this year, 6dx12h scheduling is not a fun thing.

posted on Jul, 23 2009 @ 11:49 AM
Well, I hope we get some big ones before the season ends. I don't want anyone to get hurt, or property to be damaged -- but I do like a good storm

Isn't storm severity suppose to increase due to global warming? Hrm, we'll see!

posted on Jul, 23 2009 @ 12:11 PM
I dont see any named storms untill Aug or so.. but we are almost there!

Remember, the avg tempature to fuel one must be around 80°F. The Warm water usually helps with the other 2 ingredients.

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