Depression Right on Schedule

The point of this post is to talk about a pattern I have noticed when looking at the dates of horrible times in American History. Following this pattern, a period of hardship should have started around 2007 which is when this supposed recession started.

The horrible times that I am specifically thinking about are the American Revolution (1775-1863), the American Civil War (1861-1865), and the Great Depression (1929-1939). These times are unique in American History because the hardship wasn't overseas or limited in scope but touched the lives of the people living in those times dramatically and are probably the hardest times to have lived in the United States.

I was curious about the average amount of time between each period of hardship so I made sure to find the begging and ending dates of each period to find out about how much time passed until the next period of hardship in American history. I also for the sake of finding an average included the length between the ending dates for each period of hardship. Here are the numbers:

The American Revolution - 1775 to 1783 - 8 Years Length
The American Civil War - 1861 to 1865 - 4 Years Length
The Great Depression - 1929 to 1939 - 10 Years Length

1775 to 1861 = 86 Years
1783 to 1865 = 82 Years
1861 to 1929 = 68 Years
1865 to 1939 = 74 Years

The average timespan until the next period of hardship based on these numbers is about 77.5 years with a margin of error of about 9years. And the average length of these periods are about 7 years.

Now let me know if I am making something out of nothing but it seems very strange that these periods are almost on some sort of schedule. That being said I was then curious about when the next period of hardship should happen based on these numbers.

If I add 77.5 to 1929 I get 2006.5 for the estimated start date and an end date around 2013.5. That makes us right at the time based on historical pattern for another period of hardship. Although based on current events in the last few years the start date is probably around 2007.5 or 2008 which would make the end date somewhere around 2015.

I really thought it was odd that there seemed to be a pattern with these dates but even stranger that it seems to coincide with the current potential depression or fearfully something worse than just a depression. What are your thoughts? Is this just a coincidence or is there something to this?

Intriguing thread. I Can't wait to hear more. Seems pretty reminiscent of other discussions of cyclical time patterns and such, but a little easier to understand. I NEED that in the evening.

I know it's not in the same arena as Timewave Zero stuff, so don't beat me up. I'm just saying it's pretty interesting. The thing I have the slight issue with is the 'fudge factor' if you will. The repetition of times of strife is an awesome way of looking at things, but I'm sort of unrealistic in that I expect exact dates.

But good job! I won't tell you I S&F'd you, cuz I don't tell people that.

That is just history repeating itself, for we humans base our lives on the past, on the memory of the human race. I would call what you described as cycles of "involution". Even if technology changes, it doesn't make any difference. We still go thru similar experiences, and that will go on until we wake up (awareness), and start the process of evolution with the rise of consciousness. When humans will be able to liberate their mind from all manipulations and influences. they will be free.

reply to post by KSPigpen


Your right that the fudge factor is a little high, but it is still less than a decade. With more specific things a more direct date would make more sense however there are many factors that go into these time periods. So these dates already are a highlight of years of trouble brewing. I can't get the exact dates that the trouble started brewing only the dates when the SHTF. So considering I consider the proximity fairly close.

I'm still very interested in what, if anything more you can bring to the table on this topic. Please...keep going and dig something else up for us. Just out of curiousity, what was the inspiration that led you in this direction?


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Originally posted by Canis Lupus
the Great Depression (1929-1939). These times are unique in American History because the hardship wasn't overseas

The hardship hit Europe as hard as it hit America. Conditions were so bad in Germany that Adolf Hitler used it to gain prominence and power.

Except that you mix apples and oranges. If you want to talk about whether the depression is on schedule, talk about lengths of time between depressions. You left out the numerous depressions in our nation's history. Since the last depression was in the '30s it is late by decades, unless you consider the 36 years of slow growth of perhaps 2.7 or 2.8% (and much of that probably isn't real) since 1973 and the fact that unemployment has been consistently high for decades despite the lying with statistics (bogus U-3 figures) as a "Silent Depression."

As it is we've been so sandpapered to death that a crash similar to 1929-33 would create a "Greater Depression."

I have read quit a bit about how the human experience is cyclical and I have also gotten caught up in the depression fears and so I decided to look more into the dates of other similar times in history. I also have read some about the different generations (Baby Boomer's, Gen X etc.) and how they follow a cyclical pattern. In fact you asking about my inspiration made me think about the progression of different generations again which probably can add more to this post.

Here is a wikipedia page that talks about the different generations throughout history.

en.wikipedia.org...(book)

Basically generations go through four different types of characteristics. Which follow a pattern of: the high before the awakening, awakening, unraveling, and then finally crisis. Here are the four different generation types:

Prophet/Idealist. A Prophet (or Idealist) generation is born during a High, spends its rising adult years during an Awakening, spends midlife during an Unraveling, and spends old age in a Crisis. Prophetic leaders have been cerebral and principled, summoners of human sacrifice, wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform; late in life, most come to be revered as much for their words as for their deeds.

Nomad/Reactive. A Nomad (or Reactive) generation is born during an Awakening, spends its rising adult years during an Unraveling, spends midlife during a Crisis, and spends old age in a new High. Nomadic leaders have been cunning, hard-to-fool realists, taciturn warriors who prefer to meet problems and adversaries one-on-one.

Hero/Civic. A Hero (or Civic) generation is born during an Unraveling, spends its rising adult years during a Crisis, spends midlife during a High, and spends old age in an Awakening. Heroic leaders are considered to have been vigorous and rational institution-builders, busy and competent in old age. All of them entering midlife were aggressive advocates of technological progress, economic prosperity, social harmony, and public optimism.

Artist/Adaptive. An Artist (or Adaptive) generation is born during a Crisis, spends its rising adult years in a new High, spends midlife in an Awakening, and spends old age in an Unraveling. Artistic leaders have been advocates of fairness and the politics of inclusion, irrepressible in the wake of failure.

Currently the people who are of age now (such as me: I'm 21) are of the Hero generation and are typically born in a period of society unraveling and come of age during a period of crisis. The last hero generation was born from 1901 to 1925 and came of age in the great depression. In the civil war era the hero generation never happened according to this wikipedia article however the hero generation before it of course are born from 1742 to 1766 and came of age during the Revolution.

So in a way based on the different types of generations we are also scheduled for a period of crisis.

[edit on 21-7-2009 by Canis Lupus]

reply to post by YourForever


Your right that the great depression did happen overseas as well however I am focusing in on America as I am from America and it seems to be the country leading the world towards depression. I don't mean that these events solely affect the United States only that they were something that was felt strongly in the United States. I guess I could have worded the overseas a bit differently but I meant that it wasn't like fighting a war in a foreign country etc. but was something that affected a massive amount of people on American Soil.

[edit on 21-7-2009 by Canis Lupus]

We are also way overdue for a world war or other major conflict. I see war on the horizon honestly. I really really do. I don't see how our country with the government we have now can avoid it or do anything else to pull us out of this mess we are in. I will never go fight for our tyrannical government. God help us if there is a draft.

reply to post by BSndsMPBlk47


It is clear that America has gone through recession and inflation etc. However it is clear that one was leagues ahead of the others in suffering and hardship that being the Great Depression. Other depressions and recessions did not cause nearly as much hardship or last for as long as the Great Depression. However that being said it is likely that recessions follow some sort of pattern as well and I will look more into that tomorrow as it is getting kind of late here now.

[edit on 21-7-2009 by Canis Lupus]

I don't see some sort of pattern. Maybe I am just, uh, maybe, dense when it comes to patterns of time lines. But, yeah, more technology, more contact with other people. more PEOPLE, ...um.......just how humans are...........well, something big will happen soon. Will it be the end of all?

Not even. They universe is too big for humans on a little planet to actually make an effect. Ole Sol, eventually burning out, maybe exploding, will create a bigger affect in the universe than us mere humans.

Strauss and Howe also detail their generational theory in "The Fourth Turning", basically as the OP detailed above (80 year cycles split into 4 periods, with different human traits leading each period).

I dont mind these kinds of cyclical theories, as you can see cyclical and mean reverting behaviours in humans over shorter timescales. Historical study also shows similarities over longer time periods in the rise and fall of empires etc. Human nature remains relatively constant overall as evolution is a slow process, so human behaviours over the past 2000 years are useful in determining the course of our society today.

Basically, the kind of society that a person grows up in influences his growth and so entire generations can (and do) have characteristics that differ from the previous generation due to a different upbringing and a different environment. Broadly you expect that a generation that is raised a certain way in a certain environment can be expected to raise their children in a certain (different) way, thus perpetuating the cycle.

reply to post by Canis Lupus


From your calculations it seems that there is a "hardship period" for each consecutive generation. I remember many conspiracies mention the possibility that an overall plan has been in the works for many hundreds of years by the same group of families who interbreed among themselves to maintain an isolated lineage of superior beings who keep the "secret plans" alive and moving forward.

reply to post by Hazelnut


Your right that a period of hardship does appear to happen once for each generation. I was thinking about the fact that most people who saw the depression as an adult or older teenager are dead or on the last leg of their lives. The silent (Artist) generation born during the great depression that probably saw bits and pieces of it are about 80 to 90 years old now, which means they witnessed the unraveling and might witness part of the crisis years however most are not going to be around to experience the next high time or a lot of the current crisis.

reply to post by Canis Lupus


S&F,

That is a very interesting theory. Not to get religious on anyone but I am Christian but follow the Jewish calendar. So far it has been a precise predictor. They use 7 year Sabbath cycles.

Your 2008-2015 is a 7 year period and is extremely close to my perception which should be 2009-2016. Very ironic isnt it. It's possible I'm off by 7 years but unlikely.

Lets hope we have a Great Depression, rather than hyperinflation.

In a Depression our 100.00 in the bank will still buy 100 loaves of cheap bread but with hyperinflation that same 100.00 may buy only 2 loaves.

Kind of scary and could easily happen if we have a 20% annual inflation. That would only take about 3 years.

reply to post by Canis Lupus


How did you decide on the beginning and endings of those events? I would argue the 'tough times' as you call them lasted far longer than the dates listed.

reply to post by johnny2127


These dates are the actual dates of the events according to history books however in one of my responses I delve further into the fact that tough times most likely have a longer duration than these dates but I have no start date other than the dates when the SHTF.

Originally posted by Hazelnut
From your calculations it seems that there is a "hardship period" for each consecutive generation. I remember many conspiracies mention the possibility that an overall plan has been in the works for many hundreds of years by the same group of families who interbreed among themselves to maintain an isolated lineage of superior beings who keep the "secret plans" alive and moving forward.

Perhaps a generation is enough time for the general population to forget how badly the elites screwed everyone the last time...

Perhaps each generation of elites gets its turn at raping the rest of us and setting the stage for the next cycle.

Nice thread Canis Lupus. What you have hit upon is something that others have detected as well. This goes back almost a century or so, with Kondratiev in the USSR and Dewey in the USA both coming up with theories about cycles. Dewey's institute is still operational: Foundation for the Study of Cycles

Martin Armstrong is a big modern-day proponent of cycles and chairman of the foundation mentioned above. He has written several books on this topic. The books are usually free downloads as he is publishing from prison.

His work related to what you are talking about is It's Just Time which he wrote last October. (What happened last October?)

Another essay he wrote is Looking Behind the Curtain
which was released in April 9, 2009. It details a lot about Goldman before the Rolling Stone article by Taibbi came out.

Anyway, it is clear to me that this cyclical time thing is pretty real but others seem to still deny it.

[edit on 23-7-2009 by nydsdan]