Asteroid Apophis Will Hit Earth

If it hits, it will release the same amount of energy as 65000 nukes. I don't know if that's modern nukes, or 65000 Fat Boys but I'm pretty sure either way you'll notice 65000 nukes worth of explosion.

Well I just love numbers...open to so many interpretations as for something like this hitting Earth, well it scares the crap out of me! I would rather have aliens land than have this happen.

Originally posted by Aeons
1 in 45000 is about the same odds as your odds of being robbed as a convenience store clerk.

oh crap, I got robbed while i was a convenience store clerk!

Ack!

Now I'm paranoid for sure!

Originally posted by Jomina

Originally posted by Aeons
1 in 45000 is about the same odds as your odds of being robbed as a convenience store clerk.

oh crap, I got robbed while i was a convenience store clerk!

Ack!

Now I'm paranoid for sure!

Well, I know that all the convenience stores in my area have nice big bars on their windows and sheet metal closures on their doors. Apparently, they consider 1 in 45000 convenience store clerks might be at their store.

The is no support to this theory that Apophis will hit Earth in 2029/2036(depending on course). I would not worry too bad about that 1 in 45,000 chance, as we know about it and surely have something in the works to defend ourselves, given we have had nearly 40 years advance notice. The "999" numbers in my humble opinion mean nothing. Sure Apophis is worthy to keep the closest eye on but I would not start looting and pillaging just yet.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of April 16, 2008, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is calculated as 1 in 45,000.[6] An additional impact date in 2037 was also identified; the impact probability for that encounter was calculated as 1 in 12.3 million.

Many scientists agree that Apophis warrants closer scrutiny and, to that end, in February 2008 the Planetary Society awarded $50,000 in prize money to companies and students who submitted designs for space probes that would put a tracking device on or near the asteroid.[7]

en.wikipedia.org...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ff53c0ec65e5.png[/atsimg]
Image showing projected closest approach


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a1e73f451e51.gif[/atsimg]
Image showing Apophis and its' movement






Also Apophis would certainly be devastating if it hit Earth but at its 1,500 foot length would be FAR from an ELE event. Also new observations have pretty much ruled out an impact, although it is still possible the odds are now 1 in 12.3 MILLION. It will get close to Earth though, it should provide some good studying opportunities in the mid future. Nothing to lose an sleep over for the moment though.

[edit on 7/20/2009 by jkrog08]

The 1 in 45000 was confirmed by organization tracking it quite recently.

Friday the 13 in 2029.

Better - Easter Sunday in 2036.

How's THAT grab you?

I would be more worried about this (if we live to 2880 lol)

Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA was lost after its discovery in 1950 since not enough observations were made to allow plotting of its orbit, and then rediscovered on December 31, 2000. The chance it will impact Earth on March 16, 2880 during its close approach has been estimated as 1 in 300. This chance of impact for such a large object is roughly 50% greater than that for all other such objects combined between now and 2880[35]. It has a diameter of about a kilometer (.6 of a mile).

1 in 300 chance ? now that's better odds than 1 in 45,000

800 or so years is probably enough time for someone to figure out to put a solar sail on them that then collapses once the orbit has been changed.

reply to post by Aeons


You really think in 800 years the best we can do to an asteroid is put a solar sail on it ?

We'll more likely nuke it from orbit using space sharks with frikkin lasers!!!

reply to post by Aeons


Hem, you must not have seen the most recent data then?

The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's gravity field.

This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13).

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

LOL, members on ATS are not the only ones aware of this, NASA has, is, and will continue to spend quite a bit of effort tracking and preventing the very unlikely impact. No need to get in all a fit.

More information:

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of April 16, 2008, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is calculated as 1 in 45,000.[6] An additional impact date in 2037 was also identified; the impact probability for that encounter was calculated as 1 in 12.3 million.

So 2036-37 is HIGHLY improbable and new data shows that in 2029 it is still highly unlikely of an impact---Close pass---YES.......IMPACT---NO. Remember, numbers are numbers, hell you have statistics right now of dying that are better than that impact.

By the way, the white line on the trajectory picture I showed is the possible margin of error for calculations FYI.

reply to post by jkrog08


I was wondering what that was, or if you just meant, at anytime in the white line in can go directly into earth or directly away. lol/ jk

Something that small wouldn't effect orbit would it? Silly question probably and some arrogant person will point it out but hey, screw you.

reply to post by Republican08


Glad you asked! No, it will not affect the Earths orbit, but if the asteroid would lean towards the Earth side of the error margin then the tidal forces of Earth could bring it into a orbit--Which would rapidly decay and lead to an impact event. We should know more in 2013 (if we are all still here! ) with radar telemetry when Apophis is much closer than it is now. But overall given current knowledge of orbital and celestial mechanics it is agreed that the chances of Apophis hitting are VERY slim, but still not to be ruled out.

However, there already is a projected impact probability chart (yes, even this far out,lol) and it appears as of now that Central America, specifically Columbia would be hit, this would lead to about 10 million deaths due to direct impact, with possibly more due to after effects. If the asteroid hit in the ocean it would cause a MAJOR Tsunami and very likely much worse damage to property, but less to life since it is hitting the ocean. Keep in mind evacuations would have already taken place. This is NOT and ELE causing asteroid however. And again, the chances ARE VERY SLIM of an impact. LOL, I would go about your business.


Impact probability chart courtesy of wikipedia.org:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ca079f96edba.jpg[/atsimg]

Originally posted by Jess_Undefined
Sure wish I didnt read your thread, because one of my worst fears is an astreoid hitting earth. Oh how will I sleep tonight!

Well you have 27 years to sleep soundly....

Then you can worry. :-)

reply to post by AndreDC


Then I guess were in this together! Ive always wondered what they would do if an asteroid WERE going to hit earth. Because if I can recall, we came pretty close a few years ago and they didnt bother telling anyone about it.

reply to post by jkrog08


Yeah I checked that chart out when I googled it. So we really dont have much to worry about with this. And I presume to sleep soundly at night.

Originally posted by Jess_Undefined
reply to post by jkrog08

 

Yeah I checked that chart out when I googled it. So we really dont have much to worry about with this. And I presume to sleep soundly at night.

Glad to hear it!

I just heard that there are 44,999 chances out of 45,000 that an asteriod will completely miss the earth 20+ years from now. Please go about your fornicating as there is nothing to see here. Thank you.




[edit on 3-8-2009 by Roadblockx]

[edit on 3-8-2009 by Roadblockx]

reply to post by Roadblockx


And that, my friend, is a wonderful way to look at it. Unfortunatly I tend to look at at that one little number that it could.

reply to post by Jess_Undefined


Hopefully not alone.

If so.....that's a shame.