About the author:
Bill Greener is a founding partner of the political consultancy Greener and Hook. He served in both the Ford and Reagan administrations and as
convention manager for the 1996 Republican National Convention. He also teaches at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political
Management.
The article:
July 20, 2009 | Republicans can engage in complicated studies to determine the standing of our brand. We (after all, I most certainly am a
Republican) can search for policy positions that better connect us to the concerns of voters. We can do any number of things to try to change our
fortunes. Until we come to grips with some fundamental math, however, the numbers simply do not add up to the GOP prevailing in a national election
any time soon.
[snip]
What happened? By 1988, the non-Hispanic white vote had shrunk to 85 percent; by 2004, it was about 77 percent; and in 2008, it had shrunk to 75
percent. Last November 13 percent of the electorate was black. Barack Obama won almost all this vote (97 percent). Between 8 and 9 percent of the
electorate was Hispanic, a demographic Obama won by a 2-to-1 margin (compared to the 40 percent Bush had won in 2004). That means before the first
non-Hispanic white vote was counted, the score was 19-3 for Obama. When you think about the numbers, it's not that surprising that this past Thursday
the first black president addressed the centennial convention of the NAACP. A signal achievement, certainly, an unprecedented event, but not a
mathematical shock.
But wait -- there's more statistical gloom for Republicans. Just about 18 percent of the vote was cast by voters between the ages of 18 and 30. As a
percentage of the overall vote, this did not constitute any sort of meaningful increase -- despite what the pundits were saying. However, since total
turnout was up, it did mean more young voters went to the polls. Worse, for Republicans, these voters went to Obama by a margin of 2-to-1. Chances are
that now they've got the voting habit, a lot of them will keep turning up on Election Day, and keep voting.
[snip]
The marketing department of the Republican Party is consumed with the idea of "brand." How about we actually look at ourselves as an ordinary,
non-political business, selling a commercial product? Who would ever start down a path that essentially said that we will be strong in all the
declining markets while we let our only significant competition be strong among the emerging and growing markets? Unless North Dakota suddenly gets 54
electoral votes, would someone please show me another way for Republicans to realistically conclude we can compete at the national level?
[snip]
Unless and until Republicans can demonstrate an ability to attract more support from minority voters, from younger voters, from voters living in urban
areas, it seems to this die-hard Republican that we are kidding ourselves if we think the 2008 election was just a speed bump on our road to a lasting
majority. Looking at nothing more than the math, it appears to me our challenge is far more daunting.
Full article:
www.salon.com...
The Republican party is obviously at a crossroads ...
Ideology and mathematics seem to be at odds, and elections can't be won by middle age white males alone.
"The base" as it is called, is mired in fundamentalist and theocratic principles, yet it seems the only way forward which would enable the party to
attract a more diverse support base lies in the more 'centrist" ideology for the party, namely the moderates. These two forces keep pulling at each
other and I for one have difficulty seeing how they can reconcile into one unified voice.
Of course, all seems dark in the aftermath of lost elections. I remember not so long ago that many were declaring the death of the democratic party.
And so it might have been but for the monumental unpopularity of G W Bush.
Surely though a party cannot rely solely on the hope that the other guys screw up. I mean what kind of American would want their president and
congress to fail, at great cost to his fellow Americans, just to see their party win the next elections. Well ... maybe a couple of folk are like
that.
The republican party looking for a unified identity, in the worse possible marketing move, they actually branded that "branding." I mean, they
might as well have said "new and improved with 10% less Jesus."
I kid of course but the author's point is a valid one. And though many people don't like it, we are a multi-ethnic nation. To win elections, the
ideals and platform of any party must appeal to all.
Anyhoot, I thought this was an interesting perspective from the Republican point of view.
(SD's avy if no one knows what I mean) 
