The Recession Is… Over?

The Recession Is… Over?

www.newsweek.com

The economic data that get the most play in the news—unemployment, retail sales—are coincident or lagging indicators and historically have not revealed much about directional changes in the economy. ECRI's proprietary methodology breaks down indicators into a long-leading index, a weekly leading index, and a short-leading index. "We watch for turning points in the leading indexes to anticipate turning points in the business cycle and the overall economy," says Achuthan. It's tough to recognize transitions objectively "because so often our hopes and fears can get in the way." To preve

(visit the link for the full news article)

I was happy to read this article.

To me, the possibility of further recession/depression is still very real.

Even if the recession ends today, most models won't accurately show the bottom until well past the bottom.

So, to me, there's hope on the horizon.
I hope that I stay employed until this is over also.


www.newsweek.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

reply to post by Wildbob77


You can hope....I'll hope with ya.......but I don't think we have seen anything yet!

All the indicators are skewed or flawed or based on rose-colored data from politico-sources.

Here in the trenches, I am still seeing layoffs, lowered wages, reduced hours, empty homes, foreclosures, light traffic, less tourism, more hoarding, more gun purchases, etc., etc.

When I start seeing rabid tourists blowing a month's salary here in Florida like we are used to, or I start seeing ammo back on the shelves at the stores, or I start hearing about extravagant spending on frivolous amenities again, then I will believe it is over!

reply to post by getreadyalready


Ditto here.

We're seeing more layoffs and mandatory non-paid days off.

I can take that for a few years, as long as I'm not the one laid off.

It's going to be a rough ride.

Unless people learn to think for themselves the Recession will last and be as long or as short as we are told that it is.

The reality is 90% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck an increase in the price of food simply requires that we cut back a bit maybe on food consumption. Or actually use coupons.

Beyond that the entirety of a recession including loss of jobs from a public standpoint is simply that people spend less when they are worried.

If you ask me this invented Recession in the USA was designed and portrayed to slow Chinese Growth and establish that Americas spending power is the reason for their success.

Get Americans to spend less, send China a message about the US dollar, reserve currency etc, etc

Nothing has changed for 80% pf Americans and the 10% things have changed for is largely a result of You and I not spending not Uncle Sam

Yes the USA is Trillions in debt but this doesn't change buying pizza or spending on your home so long as your employed, retail purchases etc, etc...

There is a dip sure, when guy who were worth 30 Million become worth 19 Million for whatever insane OCD reason these people stop spending frivolously as if the electric bill or a night out for dinner or larger tip will now ruin them (and this is how they got that rich in the first place) I would just suggest it is a very mild mental disorder or... maybe just quirk of personality among the rich to fall back on the stringent ways that got them their initially when any fear creeps in.


But still the media and the govt affects them too... they read more about finance than anyone else and the news is all bad every day...

So what is to be expected?

They will let us know when the recession is over lol and people will respond and spend money and end it...

such as things are in the world.







[edit on 15-7-2009 by mopusvindictus]

Yup....recession is now officially over. It's now a depression.

I think this is just another way to get the general populace to go further into debt and SPEND SPEND SPEND SPEND.

I don't think we have seen anything yet.

Just my 2 pennies worth.

reply to post by Wildbob77


Here, in another country in Europe, I got a permanent non-paid vacation from my job. Actually I was already feeling a bit paranoid and had got myself another job before they announced that. So I don't really now if this recession was so evil for me.

But yes, my gut feeling has been that this recession will be over this year. Why? The elite is proposing various new ways to control the economy. I have a feeling that was the purpose of the recession. There is however no need to prolong the recession any longer. They have already reached their goals.

So I believe that later this year business will be better for you and me, but the world is a step closer to the NWO.

Of course I might be totally wrong... Maybe TPTB want to actually create a Third World War, in which case the recession probably lasts until 2020 or so...

Really?

Fed: Unemployment Will Top 10 Percent This Year

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve expects the economy this year will sink at a slower pace than it previously thought, but that unemployment will top 10 percent, according to a forecast released Wednesday. The Fed now predicts the economy will shrink

www.newsnet5.com...


But recession is over?

reply to post by ModernAcademia


That '10%' is only what will be reported. Let's not forget mandatory time-off, reduced work weeks/hours, those going fromm full-time to part-time jobs because that's all they can get, etc., etc., etc.

What they're really trying to tell us is that it will get well beyond 10%.

reply to post by billybobh3


don't forget furlough and salary cuts

edit: never mind you already covered furlough

[edit on 15-7-2009 by ModernAcademia]

Until the control grid's complete, they'll just continue to tell you what you want to hear. That, and there's a new vampire show on (fill in the blank) to keep us happy.

Peace

Originally posted by VernonBC
Yup....recession is now officially over. It's now a depression.

I think this is just another way to get the general populace to go further into debt and SPEND SPEND SPEND SPEND.

I don't think we have seen anything yet.

Just my 2 pennies worth.

Exactly. TPTB want people to go out and spend. It's a consumer driven economy after all. So go out and spend money on useless trinkets and crap you don't need everything is fine..

I'm still waiting for the economic boom that was forecasted by the Fed and others to occur the second half of 2008 - which was repeated several months ago to happen in 2009 - oh well, promises, promises.

Unless substantial efforts are made on behalf of government and business policy as well as the will of the people, there will be absolutely no change in the direction of the economy - or is that the plan?

Doesn't matter if the Dow 30 goes up 1,000 points in a day or a week, the bankers (mostly) will continue to manipulate markets and the media. No one I know in life believes what the government or the media spews out anymore ("Mr. Independent" Lou Dobbs, are you listening?). The fact is, until a substantial number of long-term economic-sustaining jobs are created in America that facilitates a reduction in national and trade deficits, they can promise us all heaven framed in gold but it's all form without substance.

The dow is up 256 points today.

I'm pretty sure that's because the recession is over. (Note the sarcasm)

But, it's better up than down.

reply to post by Wildbob77


Its amazing how positive the media is constantly spinning the economy now with 9% unemployment and a deficit twice as big as before. They were all pretty doom and gloom with 5% unemployment, a healthy stock market and a deficit that made this one look tiny.

Here's a news article that's saying that investors are rushing back into the market.

Article

Quote "Strong earnings and an upbeat forecast from Intel Corp. pulled investors into the stock market Wednesday as hopes grew that the economy could be starting to recover. The chip maker’s results signal that computer sales are picking up faster than had been expected. "

I think that the average person will be affected for some time to come.

Kinda hard to belive any of this, considering almsot 10% of the population dont have jobs! The federal reserve has yet to be auidted, may i remind you all. Bernenke himself said a week or 2 ago..an auidt could cause the economy into a depression! so obviously thier hiding lots of stuff, and are liars. Dont forget all these new taxes the obama administration is trying to impose on us, capntrade, carbon tax...thiers more. Even if the economy bounced back, WE are still responsable now, for paying back these new tax debts.. so to me, wede all still be right where we are, making money and owing a kings ransom, therfore..unable to buy usleless things yuo dont need!

I cannot get over how careless the banks, CEO's and the Federal reserve are. Suppose the economy does swing back..people will simply just go back to spendiing money they barely dont have, and gettting loans form banks, they cant afford, for the next 12 to 30 years..providing they still have jobs to pay it all back. Lots wont..so here, we will see a repatative thing going on. Smart people regardless, will only spend what they need, and work thier way up to what they want..not greedliy given and taken, like a loan, from some no name stranger at a bank, pushing all this on him/her. People will overspend again, economy will grow and grow, with high expectations form the fed, misleading us to its all going better than ever, just like George bush stated, then from lack of paybacks, it will slump again.
Humans will never learn

We are dead... we just don't feel it yet

They could fix it by eliminating debt and start from scratch/// Now wouldn't that be nice? Don't think Obama has the balls for that move though

Here in Australia, we were told that we were out of the recession months ago.
But other Countries are saying Australis is still in a recession.