It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think

page: 4
34
<< 1  2  3    5 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 01:55 PM
link   
I find it funny how people say "before this is over". Everyone acts like we playing some sort of game and we are losing and once the game is over everything will go back to normal. What is going to be different a year from now? What is going to be different 5 years, 10 years from now? Is there going to be some sort of new technology that will revolutionize the economy overnight? This isn't going to "be over" for a long time. The US economy is dead. And unless real changes like abolishing the Fed Reserve happens nothing will change.




posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 01:59 PM
link   

Originally posted by Mr.Hyde
"What if the fear mongering on the economy is just a con job? "
- Very well written post, I enjoyed reading it. But...
The company I work for has cut over 600 jobs. That's not a con job but a fact. People are losing their jobs and in large numbers and on a regular basis. If the poor state of the economy is nothing more than a lie ... What does the PTB stand to gain from people losing their jobs? Movement to a one-world currency? We already have that...the Dollar. What does it stand to give the PTB to switch this to another countries currency or create a new one recognized by every country in the world (which would be very difficult)... that's very unlikely as the Dollar is already in place for this. So for this economic collapse to be nothing but a con job is very unlikely.

I don't see economic recovery from the 'bail-out'. Cap and trade only stands to make things much worse. Its as if the team of people calling the shots and making the decisions that will determine our future is committing to a sort-of economic suicide. What can we do about it though? Its really far out of the citizens hands. Tent cities and I-O-U's anyone?

[edit on 14-7-2009 by Mr.Hyde]


I think you may have misunderstood the thrust of my message. I'm not saying the recession is a con job. I am suggesting the 'OMFGZ it's the end of capitalism!!!' followed by 'GREEN SHOOTS ABOUND!!!' .. may be a con job. In other words, that the recession is real, but is being emphasized or de-emphasized to evoke support for policies that would ordinarily be extremely unpopular. I think the PTB may have sensed they overdid it with the 'end of capitalism' business and that the minimization going on now is essentially damage control. That it was never as bad as they said, and that it's not as good as they are saying now. Indeed, that the truth lies somewhere in the middle (a deep recession). I am further advancing that the bailout was never intended to do anything for main street. It was intended to cushion the disproportionate amount of economic damage which was originally destined for the very wealthy. It will now be absorbed by the many on their behalf.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 02:05 PM
link   

Originally posted by johnny2127
First of all, you are trying to say the MSM is pushing fear mongering. Not sure what MSM you are looking at, they are pushing hope down the throats of everything based on zero facts. This article I posted was one realistic one in a sea of crap. What I would like to point out to you, is that the people you say you work with are not the average persons in this country, AND there are not the epicenter of what the problems in the economy are.


You must have missed the part where I mentioned the endless drumbeat about the "demise of capitalism" followed by the irrational optimism. The communities I am talking about are absorbing an unemployment rate worse than Michigan right now, for the record. I'm not saying it's painless. I'm saying it's not the apocalypse.



Keep in mind, most consumers were not the problem. It was the role of banks, the govt, and a irresponsible portion of consumers.

So I would say, go talk to business owners whose success is driven by growth. I talk to them frequently given my business, and not one is optimistic, or seeing any growth or slowing for that matter. I am sure bankruptcy attorneys are doing amazing though.


I do on a regular basis. It's a slow year for them. Some of them are afraid, some not so much.



But nothing has changed besides the banking system being pulled back from the brink, and placed on life support. They still aren't lending. And this fall commercial real estate lending will collapse followed closely by optionARM mortgages. We are far from the bottom my friend. Hope and gut feelings are nice, but the FACTS point a much different direction.


I hope I haven't given the sense that my opinions are predicated purely on 'hope' and 'gut feelings'. I tried to make clear that I am quite exposed to the numbers and aware of the reality. I just think the truth lies somewhere in the middle and find the financial apocalypse talk a bit unrealistic based on the facts.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 02:28 PM
link   
I'd like to present you with an eye witness account of my neighborhood. All of the homes were pre-sold new builds in 2005. The development project began in 2004 and was completely built in 2005 with approximately 10% unsold as "move-in ready" in 2006. This is a 60 home subdivision with approximately 30 For Sale signs on the lawns.

The value of my new home has decreased by 30% since I took out a mortgage on it in 2005.

I used to feel isolated around here after I lost my job (401(k) administration). But now, there are so many others at home, judging by the number of cars parked in driveways during the day that the one's who still go to work are the minority around here. That is scary.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 02:28 PM
link   
reply to post by JohnnyElohim
 


Good first name by the way Johnny. LOL. Anyways, I don't think the truth is in between somewhere. Thats such a cliche' position for people to take by the way. Anyways, the reason it will get much worse is very simple and fact based. We are maybe 40% through an economic collapse that has been building for at least 30-40 years. Bad business and bad govt policy has been building and now is the time for us all to pay for it.

For it to be somewhere in between or ending soon, it would need to be an excess inventory driven recession. This is a credit recession. Banks still aren't lending in a commercial or private sense, and many aren't asking anymore. Credit cards are going the same direction as well. When you look at the actual economic indicators and facts there is no sign of this coming to and end soon.

Read this article by Karl Denninger: Karl Denninger Article



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 02:34 PM
link   
The recovery is most here. The stock market was up 250 points today. Who cares if Americans don't have jobs, it's all about the market people!


In all seriousness, like you said it took 30-40 years to create the mess that we are in. It will be atleast another few years before recovery is even on the horizon but it's going to take something drastic like a one world currency or NAU to happen.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 03:19 PM
link   
reply to post by johnny2127
 


Thanks for posting the Karl Denninger article. Its right on the money. A must read for anyone that wants to know what is really going on.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 03:31 PM
link   
reply to JohnnyElohim:



Thanks for your reply. This is what I'm saying, however. I do not live in an ivory tower. I am quite in touch with homelessness and unemployment in my communities, and I am telling you, they don't resemble by any stretch of the imagination the despair you describe in Michigan. The condition of Michigan is not sufficient evidence for the predicted demise of the U.S. economy.


Michigan has been the backbone of automotive manufacturing in this country for decades. It was, at one time, the industrial powerhouse of the world. In the last decade, the Big 3 have been utterly devastated.

For every automotive job created by the Big 3, some pundits estimate another 7-10 jobs created as a result. This makes sense - Because you need auto dealers, auto suppliers, and various service industries created by the wealth from the auto industry (restaurants, hair salons, etc.).

The Big 3 haven't finished their layoffs yet. A few years ago, in Detroit, you could certainly feel the effects of the economy being depressed. Now, it's 10x worse, and spreading well beyond Detroit. In the South, where I live now, is almost identical to what Detroit was like 5-6 years ago. While the industries here are more diversified, they have been highly concentrated on construction and residential development (dead industries). As a result, you are now running 10% or more unemployment even in big cities like Atlanta - and that's only going on what the government states. In reality, the unemployment is much higher.

And it's not just Michigan - The entire Rust Belt is dying - Cleveland, Detroit, Toledo, etc.


What I am pointing out is that being vulnerable to the effects of a recession and the end of the world are a long way from one another.

I never said it was the end of the world. What I said is to prepare for even worse news. We are only getting started with this recession. By the time it's over, this recession will be 3x worse than the Great Depression. All economic indicators are pointing in that direction. And don't take my word for it - Just read any leading economist or do your own research. The commercial and industrial real estate sector is the next shoe to drop - It's already starting to drop right now.


Quantitative proof, actually. Shambles is colorful, but not real. Many people are continuing to do just fine. I'm not saying there is nothing going on. I'm saying shambles is not an adequate description of the economy at large.


Not in shambles? Huh? Have you read the stories posted by others on this thread? Foreclosures through the roof, escalating record unemployment, the decimation of our manufacturing base, record bank closures with many more to come, record budget deficits, states on the verge of bankruptcy ala California.. And you still don't think the economy is in shambles? What would you call it? It's just a "minor recession"? I don't get it. Yes, the economy is in shambles - everything from automotive, to construction, to banking, to real estate.

Are people getting by? Some are - If they are in healthcare, or have a recession-proof business. But that's hardly the national economy. Just ask the poster that lost his job this past week whether he thinks the economy is in shambles or not.


Could you elaborate a bit on why you think Michigan is a bellweather for the U.S. economy?


For starters, the demise of the auto industry has a major negative effect on our national defense. The auto industry was the backbone of this country's manufacturing sector - and a major job creator.

Secondly, for every job lost in the automotive sector, it has a massive ripple effect nationally. The U.S. is just starting to get a small taste of what metro-Detroit has faced for the last decade. It will only get worse. Detroit's woes are now being felt far and wide.

If you can show me how it will get better, I am all ears.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 04:56 PM
link   
It really is the end for the US as they know it. Looks like Australasia is faring well and China. Parts of Europe are ok, others in collapse. I suspect China will be the new USA, Australasia will be in good shape supplying wine, dairy, tourism to Chinese, the USA will become a place full of Americans working $1.00 a day jobs to supply cheap goods to the rest of us. There will be anarchy for a long while and food wars, the wild west will return. Big companies like Intel will move overseas and set up there permanently. My parents are making plans to migrate in 6 months out of the US to me in New Zealand because my father (a long time patriotic American) sees nothing but imminent collapse, he's lost most everything except his house which is now worth squat. Never seen him like this before. Things will start snowballing very soon. The disinfo campaign to avert total panic is coming to an end because everyone is 'getting it' now that it's all over. Good luck



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 06:21 PM
link   
Well from a long term lens, this collapse and the coming further collapse will be the fertilizer for Americas next great growth cycle. Problem is, that is probably a few decades away. We are maybe 40% of the way through the deleveraging process that needs to happen, and the scary thing is the most painful has yet to come.

Just think about this everyone..... pessimism was bad last fall and at the beginning of the year. But many still had hope in the form of a new President and coming stimulus package. When those people realize that even with all of that, things are still bad and getting worse, the pessimism will reach it's true peak. Thats when it'll get scary. Its when people give in a submit the the bad situation that things can get out of control. Desperate people do desperate things....



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 06:32 PM
link   

Originally posted by Molan27
I live in Palm Harbor Florida which is right outside of Tampa. There are actually whole neighborhoods where there is hardly nobody living. The year long residents either got foreclosed on or gave it up too the bank and moved.. The seasonal residents have mostly put there houses on the market because they can't afford two homes any longer.. It's strange riding my bike through these beautiful neighborhoods with big homes all empty. There's for sale signs on just about every home. I know Florida is one of the hardest hit states in the US but man you really get a sense of the problem.
One benefit i noticed is the traffic is much better esp. during rush hour. The Florida job market is awful unless your in the medical field or your retired.
The HQ for the special ops is at Macdill AFB which is where I work.. So I see all the Delta and CIA teams coming and going in the C130's.


And these houses will remain empty because they are still asking ridiculous money for them and nobody has it. The real estate market should have leveled off, but it hasn't it hasn't even dipped, it's still rising and that's going to cause even more problems with the economy just because of Bank Greed! They will cause the crash because they want to always make a killing on the sales of real estate.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 07:06 PM
link   


The real estate market should have leveled off, but it hasn't it hasn't even dipped, it's still rising and that's going to cause even more problems with the economy just because of Bank Greed! They will cause the crash because they want to always make a killing on the sales of real estate.


Where in the U.S. are real estate prices rising? Real Estate prices in some parts of the country have fallen by as much as 30-40% or more. I suppose that there might possibly be some remote parts of the country that have seen prices rise, but I would be very, very surprised. If that's the case, it's very rare indeed.

As far as "bank greed" goes, the banks that lent money to borrowers for residential real estate are bleeding to death. They don't want to take a loss if they can avoid it - No more than any other traditional business wants to take a loss. That's not greed - That's normal business.

Buyers and sellers ran up the costs of real estate - not banks. All banks want is a qualified appraisal illustrating that the market value is there. Appraisals are typically based on comparable sales in the area - So a rising market will inflate the appraised value. That's not the bank's fault.

Now, most conservative banks want a cushion - Hence the requirement for a 20% down payment. This is standard, traditional lending. It was the sub-prime mortgage brokers (Countrywide, Ameriquest, etc.) that were offering the "Zero Down" mortgage products.

Banks don't want to "make a killing" on real estate. Quite the contrary. All banks really want is for the interest on the loan to be paid. That's where their profits lie - NOT in flipping real estate properties.

Take this example: Let's say a bank closed a residential real estate mortgage for a qualified borrower for $300,000 at the top of the real estate buying frenzy. At the time of closing, the bank writes a check for $300,000 to the seller. That's $300,000 out the door for the bank.

A year later, the borrower defaults on the loan. Due to the real estate market crashing, the price for that house is now worth say $200,000.

That's a $100,000 loss for the bank. The bank will then hire a realtor and that realtor will attempt to sell the property at market value (if they can even sell the property at all). In addition to the $100,000 loss, the bank has to cover real estate commissions, legal fees, title fees, appraisal costs, closing costs, damages done to the property when the borrower left, etc.

(By the way, the scenario I described above, is way too common in this market. Just ask any banker in your community.)

How on earth - in the scenario I just described - could this be considered making a killing? (???)

Banks want to minimize losses - Yes - but they certainly aren't making profit off of these real estate losses.

The collateral value - real estate in this case - has dipped too sharply for banks to "make a killing" in this market.

Banks are just trying to stay afloat, tread water, and sell these vacant houses without having to take a bath. Most of the residential real estate in this country has dipped considerably in value, weakening the bank's collateral position.

So - you tell me - How is it that banks that are suffering massive losses - How are they making a killing in this real estate market with such depressed real estate values? I would really, really like to hear your answer.

[edit on 15-7-2009 by CookieMonster09]

[edit on 15-7-2009 by CookieMonster09]



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 07:56 PM
link   
reply to post by CookieMonster09
 


When you want to sell your house, who do you call? An appraiser, who does that appraiser work for? Either a bank or real estate agent(if owner is selling through the agent). They then tell you what your home is worth, they then Lend the money to another buyer, they set the price, they set the interest rates (Either bank or agent), Also even if you sell by owner, they look online for the amount their house is worth, that's usually an agent or bank, but really agents are just banks anyway, they are banks that only deal in real estate. Now, they set the price because they've told you what you should get for the house, they then set the finance rate to the buyer, and set how much interest they will collect off these dumb a&& buyers' butts.
Most of the time the house isn't even worth half of that, yet they want to make a 100 percent profit and leave the sellers with next to nothing out of the sale of their OWN house. I know I have an aunt who worked in real estate and also I have watched the purchase of several houses. They make a sh***load of money, they are all wranglers and you're a D**** IDIOT!
As for housing going down well, I ws talking about Florida here it IS in fact RISING! Take for instance this house three years ago(down the street from me) It's a dang wreck, it isn't livable, but it was selling at $189,000
Now this week it was listed at $600,000. It is a residential home, BUT the BANK has turned it over to COMMERCIAL land so that they can sell this crappy Piece of A&& at that price. Now tell me they aren't full of BS! Suck an egg!



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 08:03 PM
link   
if the bank writes out a cheque for $300,000 what happens to the money? ithe seller either puts it into the bank, they got it back, or it is spent on maybe a bigger house or cars or whatever, it generates more cash.

ever hear the story of two friends maurice and moses?

moses says to his friend ,hey maurice look at this beautiful emerald pendant with diamonds i bought for my wife ,i paid 5000 for it, nicest thing i ever saw.

Maurice said yes you are right it is beautiful i would pay 8000 for that for my wife,

8000 eh?, its yours

a couple of days later moses rings his friend and says ,you still have the pendant?

yes

I feel bad i really would like to give it to my wife, i will buy it back for 10,000.

10,000 ?its yous

this went on for weeks until the price had reached 25000.

finally moses rings maurice and says i will give you 30,000 for it ,

maurice says , i am sorry moses but i sold it to a customer for 26,000.

moses said you stupid fool ??? we was both making money.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 08:40 PM
link   


When you want to sell your house, who do you call? An appraiser, who does that appraiser work for? Either a bank or real estate agent(if owner is selling through the agent). They then tell you what your home is worth, they then Lend the money to another buyer, they set the price, they set the interest rates (Either bank or agent), Also even if you sell by owner, they look online for the amount their house is worth, that's usually an agent or bank, but really agents are just banks anyway, they are banks that only deal in real estate.

Your terminology is all confused. First, when you want to sell your house, you call a real estate agent, not an appraiser. The appraiser doesn't sell homes - He appraises them.

The appraiser is required by regulatory authorities to be a third-party, independent appraiser. If the appraiser is colluding with the realtor, the buyer, or the loan officer, the appraiser is engaged in fraud and can be prosecuted for collusion.

The lender - in this case the bank - hires the appraiser to ensure that the collateral they are lending against has sufficient market value for the loan amount. Buyers also hire an appraiser to make sure they are not extending an offer more than the appraised value of the house.

The seller sets the price, at the recommendation of the realtor based on market value and what they think they can negotiate. Naturally, they want the best price they can get.

The bank sets the interest rate, not the realtor. Realtors are not banks nor are they bankers - nor are they "banks that deal in real estate" (whatever that means).



Most of the time the house isn't even worth half of that, yet they want to make a 100 percent profit and leave the sellers with next to nothing out of the sale of their OWN house. I know I have an aunt who worked in real estate and also I have watched the purchase of several houses.


This doesn't make any sense. Naturally, the real estate agent wants to sell a house at the highest possible price to increase their commission. And the seller wants the maximum price that they can obtain from the sale of their property.

However, market values typically dictate what price a realtor can sell the house for - subject, of course, to negotiations between buyer and seller, concessions, counter-offers, etc.

If your aunt is a realtor, she does not work for the bank - She works for a real estate sales agency.


They make a sh***load of money, they are all wranglers and you're a D**** IDIOT!


Again, my question had nothing to do with real estate agents.

To comment however - Most realtors go broke in their first 3 years. It'sa straight commission job, after all. Some make a fortune if they have the selling skills, networking skills, market knowledge, work ethic, and longevity in the business. Are they "wranglers" as you say? I guess you could more appropriately state that they are effective, tough negotiators.



As for housing going down well, I ws talking about Florida here it IS in fact RISING! Take for instance this house three years ago(down the street from me) It's a dang wreck, it isn't livable, but it was selling at $189,000 Now this week it was listed at $600,000. It is a residential home, BUT the BANK has turned it over to COMMERCIAL land so that they can sell this crappy Piece of A&& at that price. Now tell me they aren't full of BS!


Real estate prices in Florida - generally speaking - have fallen considerably. In fact, Florida - along with California and a handful of other states - saw a massive real estate boom that has since gone bust.

I imagine that you could potentially find an obscure piece of property that was converted from residential to commercial - and based on zoning and an attractive location, the value of the property could be considered - hypothetically - greater than it previously was valued.

However, by and large, real estate prices for residential real estate in Florida have taken a massive nosedive.

Regardless of the above discussion, you still never addressed my question, which centered around bank losses due to collateral values deteriorating on defaulted loans. Oh well.

You might, however, like this article from Bloomberg, "US Home Prices to Fall through 2011":

www.bloomberg.com...



[edit on 15-7-2009 by CookieMonster09]



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 10:56 PM
link   
I agree with that, The economy is getting worse and worse and all I see is Obama cutting more jobs under helping the environment, I just keep seeing things get worse and worse, How can this be change we can believe in?

Can anyone tell me if I am wrong and that California farms will be restored, and our countries jobs will come back from overseas?

or is our economy still in a bad freefall?



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 11:21 AM
link   

Originally posted by uswgo
I agree with that, The economy is getting worse and worse and all I see is Obama cutting more jobs under helping the environment, I just keep seeing things get worse and worse, How can this be change we can believe in?

Can anyone tell me if I am wrong and that California farms will be restored, and our countries jobs will come back from overseas?

or is our economy still in a bad freefall?


You are right about that somewhat. Some jobs will come back from overseas, but most industries that left the country have been completely destroyed and we do not have the infrastructure of the training to resume those jobs.

That is one of the huge differences between now and during the Great Depression. At that time we were at least mostly dependent on our own country. Now we are dependent on other nations for most of out daily good. If we entered another world war and had to suddenly produce most of our own good, we would be fairly screwed for a while until new infrastructure and training came online. It would be years of incredible pain.



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 02:40 PM
link   
Hello, third-world inhabitant here. 9,5% unemployement rate? That's a blessing. We've had 21,5% UR in our worst moments, hell, we can't go down the 8% in our best moments. You're making a big deal out of nothing. We've had crisis like the one you're going through (and worse, oh the eighties) since the '20s non-stop. A bit of advice from someone who had to deal with economic unstability since her tender years? Save, and never trust a bank. Ever. Deal with them, never trust them. Avoid them as much as you can. Don't spend money on things you don't need. Have a cellphone? Does it work? Yes? Then you don't have to keep spending money on new cellphones every year. Always have a back up, don't go on holiday every year and keep that money just in case this happens again. Always act paranoid about your money, that way you'll be prepared in case s*** hits the fan again in a few years. I think that americans have to start changing their lifestyles, or they aren't coming out of this one. If it happened once, it can happen twice, thrice and every year, after all your economy is always runned by the same people raised in the same culture; they may change names but their virtues and weaknesses remain.



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 05:01 PM
link   
reply to post by Aelur
 


Good post.
The only thing I would add is that the US cannot remain stable as a society with the sort of unemployment your country has. Mostly for the reasons you have articulated. Most people here are accustomed to certain things and hell will break lose if they don't have that.

Oh and when you are quoting your country's unemployment, I doubt they are measured in the same way. The US number is saying that 9.5% of employable workers seeking work are unemployed. Not overall in the country. And that 9.5% number is bogus of course......



posted on Jul, 19 2009 @ 01:33 AM
link   
reply to post by fleabit
 

The ppl running the government were citizens one time.

So other ppl will come from the citizenry to run the country in the future.

Unless your saying elite families chose who runs the country
and we only vote as a charade ?




top topics



 
34
<< 1  2  3    5 >>

log in

join