The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think

reply to post by JohnnyElohim


Thank you for posting this... it's still more doom and gloom than I'd like, but you're probably right. Anybody who complains about the state of the economy really needs to spend some time looking at the CIA world factbook... unemployment and poverty are still a much bigger issue in other countries. One other thing, it's VERY easy to place the blame on government or our elected officials, but it's really the overspending of the entire population that created this mess (and the willingness of banks to lend money that didn't exist, and had a low probability of ever being paid back). Yes, creating jobs in manufacturing needs to be done, but who wants to buy overpriced American ****? The focus of this country needs to be on the military and in the health care and technology sectors. These are the only places where the American spirit and it's ingenuity shine.

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy

But the town I live in we would manage just fine handling our own economy and governing ourselves.

Maybe. But what about defense?

What happens when troops are sent to "occupy" your town and make sure it stays part of the system? What happens when there's national collapse, and someone decides your town is now part of THEIR system?

If there is total meltdown and collapse, expect a heyday for strongmen looking to expand their turf. It's gonna take more than a well-regulated militia to keep your town intact...

I'm thinking the WSJ may have read a post of mine.


www.abovetopsecret.com...&mem=Dbriefed

posted on 6-7-2009 @ 02:17 AM
Most certainly the current trend will pass the December 1982 record of 10.8%. With little business investment, a sharp reduction in commerce (Imports/Exports), and the closure of our major manufacturing plants (Auto and parts suppliers), employment is headed south.

Think 9.5%, 10.8%, 16.5%, or 25% unemployment figures are high?

Consider this, 140 Million are employed:

• Out of a population of 304 Million, 53% are not employed
  
• Out of an able to work population of 235 Million, 40% are not employed
  
• In one year, able population increased by 2 Million (233 to 235), and (official) employed dropped by 5.6 Million (145.7 to 140.1), that would be 7.6 Million more unemployed in one year

U.S. Population: Google www.google.com...

U.S. Employment: BLS.gov www.bls.gov...

[edit on 14-7-2009 by Dbriefed]

I keep asking myself with each new decision from this and the past administration if they have the best interest of the country at heart.

I don't care if we are talking about:

Cap and Trade
Reducing the number of warheads we have available
Government run healthcare
Stimulus after stimulus
Securing the boarder

I work for a company which releases a respected job report every month and I know how they come up with their numbers. I have worked for them for many years and the last 7 months have been like nothing I have ever seen.

Every client is negotiating price. Everyone is letting people go, with the exception of those with government contracts. I know things are going to get worse; Much worse.

And as I watch the decisions our politicians make I wonder, Do they have the best interests of American's at heart?

My opinion is no and that makes me sad.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a292625441d9.jpg[/atsimg]


Hey could all ways be worse at least our jobs did not get blown up. I for one am skeptical about this whole financial fiasco getting better you say? Well just look at that storm trooper! We will all be like him soon.

Originally posted by traderjack
reply to post by fleabit

 

Really? You don't think "Joe (and Jane) Public" are capable of fixing a damned mess created by dishonest politicians trained in 'business'. Now, I don't have a business degree, but I can think creatively.

So, here is a scenario. Instead of bailing out the 'hedge funds' (they aren't banks by the way), we create low interest loans for businesses. Small businesses with viable models, that produce something! Not webspace, not celebrity aggrandizement, but a real product.

Like a tracked robot that could be used to fight forest fires, a single pane solar cell that could run all the non essential electric appliances in your home (ie computers, cell phone chargers, tvs.), or a low cost electric trike for running around town (like an electric rickshaw). Or other 'grandiose' ideas of these pesky "J & J Publik" entrepreneurial types. You know, these massive failures like the PC, the light bulb, the internal combustion motor. Yeah, lets keep our eye on the prize, proppin' up bankers.

Free energy technology has been available for DECADES. Tesla created a model but was and continues to be unreleased because then big oil would be finished.

So we take our country back, take all the corrupt politicians and bankers and throw them all in Guantanomo Bay prison, let them fend for themselves like the dirty grimy deadbeat criminals they are and we can fix our once great country and put this whole sordid mess behind us.

The economy is beyond fixing if you ask me. I am afraid needs "reset" and for that to happen it will have to have a total collapse. I am afraid the worse it yet to come. Up to now we have see nothing compared to what is yet to come. This time it will be far worse than the 1929 collapse. That only the US and had little affect on the rest of the world but this time the whole world economy is tied together and when it fails it takes everyone with it. That maybe what the real problem is this time. The world economy idea was not a good one. It is like putting all your eggs in one basket.

reply to post by Molan27


hey Molan, I don't live too far from you, and it isn't any better in this part of the county. People that have a job don't realize how bad it is. People who have been looking for a job, know how bad it is. The stats don't even come close to the real numbers. I think in Florida, unemployment is closer to 15-16%, maybe more. I think before all this is over, we'll see 20% plus unemploymnet as common. It's bad man, and getting worse. If there's any good news out there, somebody post it. That would be a rarity these days.

Now, I'm just waiting fro the crime rate to go through the roof.....

Originally posted by itguysrule
I read this article earlier today and was happy to see that it was posted on ATS. Here in Colorado we are only at 7.6% unemployment right now but I have noticed a lot of changes of late:

- I have several friends who work for large corporations who have had to take pay cuts of 10% or more. One of them is now working only three days per week so that is almost a 50% cut in pay.

- I have noticed a striking decrease in traffic around the area. I drove to a store about 8:00 PM the other night and the streets were almost empty. I drive to a Park-n-ride and take the bus from there to work. A year ago I often had to park out in the dirt because the lot was totally full. Now days it is usually only half full.

- There are a lot of stores that have closed in the area. Big chains like Linens-n-Things, CompUSA, Circuit City as well as mom and pop stores. In one local shopping mall more than half of the stores have closed. It is so empty there it is creepy and my wife won't shop there alone even in the day. A few days ago my son drove to the local Checker Auto Parts to get a headlight for his car - it was closed.

- On Saturday my wife and I went to a shopping center that had a BestBuy and an Office Depot. We counted about 15 cars in the parking lot for both stores - ON A SATURDAY!

- I also have a daughter home from college for the summer. Her plan was to get a job and earn money so she could go back to school in the fall. After at least 75 applications and 10 or so interviews she hasn't found anything. Not only that, none of her friends in the same situation have found jobs either.

It is always interesting to read the facts and figures about the economy, but I also just trust what I see. I see a very weak economy getting weaker and I am sure people in other areas are suffering even more. I don't have much hope that our politicians can fix this mess. They are too busy blaming each other to come up with any real solutions. I expect that we are in for much tougher times that will eventually (hopefully) lead to our current crop of political fools being thrown out of office. I sincerely hope that we, collectively, can find a political solution to this problem because if we don't the alternative will be violent conflict.

As you have stated in your post, look for yourself, at the conditions around you. You don't really need any government stats to tell you what's happening. Folks, other than a few isolated areas such as Texas and maybe Oklahoma, things are as bad as you think they are. it's for real guys. I have a son-n-law, who is a manage for Sam's. They had over 330 people apply for a cashiers job. That's staggering. Another proof of how bad things are. In our local school system, substitute teachers are used all the time. The pay is about $7.50 per hour or so. Not exactly executive pay. These jobs used to be taken by people studying to be teachers, and other non professional people. Recently, the newspapers did a story on the subs that are the county is using now. They have business execs, PHD's, and numerous other professionals clammering to get a $7.50 per hour job.

Believe the crisis we are in, it's going to get worse. This isn't hype, it's the truth. Look around your own town, it's not a prety sight is it?? This whole scenerio we are in has been planned for a long time by the PTB. We are destinned to fail, and the time is now. Do what you will to get ready, prepare your family fro changes in their lives. Our way of life is about to change, and will never be the same again. believe it.

I've been following trading blogs online in my spare time. The ones I'm following are in agreement that the worst is yet to come. They expect over a 50 percent drop in the stock market. One projects the unofficial unemployment rate to go up to around 33% before this depression is over and I read last year they projected it would be worse than the Great Depression in the 1920's,1930's because the credit expansion was 3 times as big as back then which makes the collapse that much more severe.

Even though I'm very busy at work and I'm lucky I've been told in that respect, the overall corporation has frozen all of our pay and taken away all matching retirement benefits which is a large pay cut by itself but it doesn't affect my take home pay. My house was recently reassessed at a much higher tax value so now I have to pay higher property taxes. I would have preferred no reassessment. However the area I live in now has one of the few appreciating property values. It's only about 2 percent a year but has stayed that way for many many years. There was never a big runup in real estate here.

Oh, if the one trading service is correct, the bottom of this Depression may be in the year 2012. That is if the current government doesn't prolong it and make it last a few years longer. I'm not believing all the stories about the recession ending late this year or early next year. I don't really understand how the recession can be over when unemployment is so high and constantly getting higher with 70 percent of the economy being consumer driven and they are cutting back their spending. Saying the economy may have positive GDP in another quarter or two just doesn't make sense to me. I aced Economics in college too.

[edit on 15-7-2009 by orionthehunter]

All on this site give opinions, sometimess they may not be agreeable, i personally do not offend others.
do we want to live in the real world, or let the wool be pulled over your eyes.
The golden goose is dying, a magic wand is needed.
earlier it was suggested the usa stop buying from abroad and start rebuilding usa,s own industry, the idea would be good,if the population was not in massive debts with the banks..
the banks have been given a massive lifeline, which will be repaid by you,your children and your grand children.
Why do your banks not lend as they have been told to?
The usa the most powerful country in the world that has made its wealth through credit is not kickstarting the economy? i think its because its not easy to open new markets around the world with competition far too strong, who can you sell your goods to?

The chinese work very hard for little pay.
Ok i can say,things are not that bad, be positive, it will all turn out good in the end,yep maybe i should,,,
Things are not that bad, it will be hard but all will work out fine.

A close relative of mine is management for a large manufacturer of a particular type of equipment here in the U.S. They are currently losing millions each week and posed for bankruptcy. This has been a very profitable company for many years. Very sad for all those that have invested so many years into this company. If bankruptcy is filed, it will surely move out of the US.

Seems like most here seem to agree things are getting worse and will continue to get worse. Facts back this view point up. My question is this, do any of you that think things will be getting better soon have any data to back up your claims?

There seems to be a constant theme here: Economists and individuals that predict economic improvement soon seem to have let their hopes cloud their judgement. I can understand that hope, but when you have a mountain of data showing things getting worse and not slowing down for a long time, and then a trickle of conjecture saying maybe it'll get better soon, and some people choose the trickle of conjecture, it is mind boggling.....

reply to post by SPC_D


Our jobs didn't get blown up? Many would beg to differ with you on that one.

We just all have to start talking with our families about how we join up together and get thru whatever happens. Mexican families are already prepared; 37 of them will live in the same house and we just have to learn that we have tighten the belt and hang in together. For those who don't have many extended family members, those type people should do the same, live together as family and work and share, until we can get our lives put back together. Well sorry for the little rant there just trying to put a little positive note in.

"We need to stop importing and increase local production"

Hmm.. And the alternative being: We should go into even more massive debt purchasing goods from overseas, while the private sector continues to send our manufacturing operations to Communist countries?

Is this your "capitalist ideal"?

"All for one, and one for all," said the elephant as he danced amid the ants.

"The bankers and govt. are controlling everything, we should localise power"

If you honestly believe that your representatives in Congress are there to represent your interests, I have a bridge to nowhere in Alaska we need to talk about.

"We should have a resource-based economy rather than a fiat currency based upon speculation by rich people with no grasp of the fate of the planet. If we don't work together, we will all die"

Simple: Align our currency with the gold standard.

Oh, yes, that's right, STALINIST RUSSIA, NAZI GERMANY, MAOIST CHINA, and the soon-to-come GORIST AMERIKA.

People are advocating a return to sensible governance, and suggesting that American jobs are vital to the economy. That's hardly advocating communism.

Anybody who complains about the state of the economy really needs to spend some time looking at the CIA world factbook... unemployment and poverty are still a much bigger issue in other countries.

Yep, take a good hard look at the CIA World Factbook and study the poverty and unemployment in Third World countries, because that's exactly what you can expect to happen to this country in the next few years. It's already happening - Just look around you.

One other thing, it's VERY easy to place the blame on government or our elected officials, but it's really the overspending of the entire population that created this mess

You're right. Our elected leaders had nothing to do with the current financial mess. What were we thinking?

Yes, creating jobs in manufacturing needs to be done, but who wants to buy overpriced American ****? The focus of this country needs to be on the military and in the health care and technology sectors. These are the only places where the American spirit and it's ingenuity shine.

I for one would gladly buy American manufactured goods over foreign goods any day of the week. Our American spirit and ingenuity can out-compete any other country if we have the will to do so, and not just in the sectors you mention. If all this country has left is technology and health care, then that is a pretty sad commentary on your belief in your fellow Americans. In decades past, we led the world in steel, automotive manufacturing, and more.

Every client is negotiating price. Everyone is letting people go, with the exception of those with government contracts. I know things are going to get worse; Much worse.

Agreed.

And as I watch the decisions our politicians make I wonder, Do they have the best interests of American's at heart?

No, they don't. All they care about is getting re-elected and returning favors to those that fill their election coffers.

One projects the unofficial unemployment rate to go up to around 33%

Yep. And that's being conservative.

Why do your banks not lend as they have been told to?

Because the banks are facing bankruptcy themselves - Too many bad loans on the books.

Originally posted by johnny2127
Seems like most here seem to agree things are getting worse and will continue to get worse. Facts back this view point up. My question is this, do any of you that think things will be getting better soon have any data to back up your claims?

There seems to be a constant theme here: Economists and individuals that predict economic improvement soon seem to have let their hopes cloud their judgement. I can understand that hope, but when you have a mountain of data showing things getting worse and not slowing down for a long time, and then a trickle of conjecture saying maybe it'll get better soon, and some people choose the trickle of conjecture, it is mind boggling.....

I think there are a lot of people in denial. They don't want to believe that the economy is going to come crashing down. They hear one bit of good news and they latch on to it. They want to believe that this is just like any other recession in the past and it will be ok.

The talking heads in the media have been told to calm the population and tell them everything is going to be ok. Our economy is driven by people consuming goods and services. The only thing that will get us out of this recession is for people to start spending cash again. Saving money is bad for our economy it is discouraged. So the government controlled media is going to try to fool the people into thinking that its all going to be fine so they can stop saving and start spending. The problem is that people aren't buying it. Even though most may be sheep they are not blind and can see what is going on in their communities. It seems pretty obvious to me that as more and more consumers lose their jobs the American economy will get worse and worse.

reply to post by Erasurehead


Agreed. Here's what most people do not get:

There are two types of recessions: inventory driven recessions which is most common, and credit driven recessions. The last material credit driven recession was "The Great Depression."

So many economists and people are basing predictions and projections on what has happened during inventory driven recessions. This is a completely different beast.

Karl Denninger has a great explanation about the difference between the two, and why this one is different AND why we aren't close to coming out of it. Again, full of facts not conjecture. Take a look....
Karl Denninger Article



[edit on 15-7-2009 by johnny2127]

I live in michigan. I use to work in the automotive sector. Officially still do , but this is my last week. My company was bought out by our biggest competitor and they shut us down. Payed us to stay home after posting the W.A.R.N Act. I wont go into details but it was pretty crappy how it all went down. I worked there for 21 years. Always turned down voluntary layoffs when they occured from time to time. I'm trying to deal with this the best I can, but it absolutely sucks. I know I'm not alone, but it dosen't make it any easier. What I would like to say is this crisis we find ourselves in has been coming for along time and there is much blame to go around, myself included. I could have tried to better myself but didn't. Now I have no choice. An article in a local newspaper quoted a state rep. that felt unemployment in this state would hit 20%. The record is 16.9%. Many have said to persue a career in the medical field but a local hospital has recently eleminated the LPN's for lower paid CPN's. I believe this is just the beginning for the medical field. They are about to get a huge wake up call. IMO if we are to have any kind of hope for this country is to eliminate the republican and democratic parties and that is at the local, state and federal levels. Vote them all out. Shut all foreign embassies and military bases. Put the military in charge of our southern border. Let GM and Chrysler fail. I know that sounds strange coming from a shop rat from Michigan but it needs to happen. Same with the banks too. No taxpayer bailouts. If we allow the system to work itself out, it may get worse for most, but I feel that recovery would happen much sooner. Good Luck to ALL and God Bless.

Originally posted by CookieMonster09

Consider yourself extremely lucky and unique. I can assure you that the rest of the country is hurting severely - homelessness, foreclosures, lost jobs, etc.

If you really want to know what's coming your way, go take a plane trip to the city of Detroit next weekend. This is what the rest of America will look like soon. The rest of the country is just getting a tiny taste of what Michigan has been fighting for the last decade.

The malaise is spreading, and fast. This, I can assure you.

Thanks for your reply. This is what I'm saying, however. I do not live in an ivory tower. I am quite in touch with homelessness and unemployment in my communities, and I am telling you, they don't resemble by any stretch of the imagination the despair you describe in Michigan. The condition of Michigan is not sufficient evidence for the predicted demise of the U.S. economy.

It's not the end of the world if you're one of the lucky few to be employed, well off, in a unique "recession-proof" business, but most Americans are definitely feeling the heat right now, with layoffs, reduced hours and wages, downsizing, restructuring, foreclosures, fierce competition for jobs, etc.

I realize those forces are in play. This is a recession, after all, and a particularly bad one. What I am pointing out is that being vulnerable to the effects of a recession and the end of the world are a long way from one another.

The economy is in shambles by any metric that you choose - unemployment, job creation, growth, etc. It's a disaster by any metric - quantitative or qualitative. This, too, from the leading economists in the country, as well as the news pundits.

If you want qualitative proof, again, take a trip to Michigan because the malaise is coming to a city near you.

Quantitative proof, actually. Shambles is colorful, but not real. Many people are continuing to do just fine. I'm not saying there is nothing going on. I'm saying shambles is not an adequate description of the economy at large.

I don't deny that there are very, very powerful political and business interests that were heavily involved in the disastrous decisions that led to this economic mess. However, the economy being in shambles is most definitely not fear-mongering nor a "con job" - The malaise and economic recession - nay Depression - is very, very real for a large portion of the American population.

Even in Michigan, the food pantries that normally serve the poor in the city, have now been expanded to the suburbs - and they can't keep up with the demand. Michigan is a microcosm of what the rest of the country will look like shortly in due time.

Just wait a few months when unemployment runs out and states can no longer afford to pay unemployment benefits. You haven't seen anything yet - This is just getting started, believe me.

Could you elaborate a bit on why you think Michigan is a bellweather for the U.S. economy?