"This is what could happen": Your Prognosis for Economic Meltdown

You may have discussed many times what you believe could precipitate a systemic economic meltdown. You may have spoken about the consequences for governments, institutions and the populace. But have you ever thought it through sufficiently to lay out a whole scenario (stretching over weeks, months and years) based on what you have learned and understood to date? I haven't, and I think it is a tall order.

But we have some serious thinkers in here, and I think together we could come up with a number of plausible constructs. So how about it?

I suggest rather than taking several days to cook up a complete thesis, have a go based on what you see as the main themes. Then if other things come to mind later, or if something someone else says jogs your memory, come back and refine your model.

You might even wish to put more than one model forward.

Given enough collaboration we could come up with a number of realistic scenarios. If the nightmare actually occurs it will be very interesting to see how closely it follows expectations. (And models that don't fit can then be rejected or re-calibrated.)

Feel free to be as technical or down-to-earth as you wish. Hopefully some among us will be sufficiently skilled to pull such posts together like different aspects of a jigsaw.

One thing that would help make this project successful would be copious use of bullet points.

Whether you're an economist, a trader, a market-watcher, a political pundit or a down-to-earth man-in-the-street, don't be shy. "This is what could happen..."

Kind of a story but here goes


It will start in the winter of 2009.


We are in the midst of commercial real estate collapse and the economy is still shedding 400,000 jobs a month. Talks of greenshoots are in the past and China has already firmly denied any more backing of US treasuries. California is in trouble again.


Nationwide Unemployment hovers around 17%. Far-Right groups begin organizing more and more protests gaining major influence. Obama forced to act on the matter passes tough immigration reform measures making it nearly impossible for those hear illegally to get a job. Immigrants upset at the lack of jobs begin to leave as the prospectof finding a job gets more difficult.

Things begin to fall apart as state budgets planned out earlier in july run dry up way ahead of schedule similiar to the way they did in FY 2008. Roads do not get paved, income taxes not returned. The outlook is grim.A major hurricane has leveled a major US city and the response was terrible, worse than Katrina. Obama's approval rating stick around Bush's.

Lack of funds and america's downgraded credit rating forces the printing of money not backed by a purchase. And then it happens. Inflation, 5%, 10%, finally 50% before it stops. People are outraged, destitute. Complete life savings and 401k's are made pretty much worthless.

A the criminal elements begin to surface as underfunded police cannot fight them off. Society begins to break down. Those who have anything live further and further away from those who do not.



fast forward,

By 2012 or 2013 the situation will level off.



[edit on 9-7-2009 by Spartak_FL]

[edit on 9-7-2009 by Spartak_FL]

reply to post by pause4thought


Ultimately what people have been trying to do since this chaos began is to try and find a past economic event that they can correlate to our current .. predicament. I suppose that the Federal Government is assuming our current issues are correlating with the Great Depression, as Ben Bernanke is probably the most learned man in the World on that topic. However I believe we have been seeing the systematic collapse of the entire system since 1999 honestly.

I believe that we will be faced with two different scenarios that will take place.

1. We will end up like the British Empire, slowly contracting and withdrawing from the World Stage, no longer being the centerpiece of the World as far as economic and military powers. In all likelihood China would assume our position, as it's always a developing economy that is not entrenched in its ways that comes to replace the older powers. This would be the preferable way to go.. with our manufacturing base destroyed and our main source of GDP consumer spending, we could collapse entirely, or we could down size and re-adjust our way of life. This would obviously mean political and economic changes, but far less severe then option 2.

2. We end up like the USSR .. and I would say it's not entirely impossible that several States would withdraw from the Union as the collapse comes about. Had the banks not been kept afloat by extreme measures, I believe such a collapse already would have happened.. Quantitative Easing I believe is the term coined to describe our situation. Since 2001 our actual production of material goods.. something worth a tangible asset.. has been steadily declining.. as I said, 70+% of our GDP is internal circulation of wealth through consumer spending. Take that into account and the monstrous level of spending by the Government just trying to survive.. and you come up with a formula that very well could mean a USSR type collapse.

One thing that certainly distinguishes this age from those past, is the speed of communication. This could decide the flow of emotion during the crisis.. either the institutional powers will continue the propaganda suppression over independent "grass roots" movements, and ultimately suppress them, or the speed of communication will accelerate ill feelings and turn into a true political movement.

In the past because news was so often delayed, and sometimes whole regions outside of communication from Federal authorities (and mind you, this relates to the entire World) small movements or major insurrections could formulate and turn against the oppressors or governing authority. Now, if a resistance formulates it is known about in minutes and can be destroyed just as fast through corporate news ridicule and countering views.

Our way of life will deteriorate, though how far no one can say.. I wouldn't find it impossible to see major cities swamped with the poor, the starving and the hopeless.. I doubt it will ever get as bad as the Great Depression, simply because the corporate, infrastructure and Governing abilities are far superior to those times.

Aside from an informal insurrection I believe the only great fear to life in the next few years will be major confrontations of global economic powers.. Not just the threat of major world wide military initiatives invoked by a bloc of allies, but even smaller and ever spreading wars of aggression by the US Military to create a need and demand for production. If you look at the 2001-2003 economic period, it was consistent deterioration until the Iraq War, which pumped billions into the economy every month.. it was like a continuous stimulus plan.

You also have to take into account that the vast majority of the populace has NEVER experienced anything like this. 2001 was the first recession that I can remember, and it didn't effect me at all as I was in high school. 20-30 year olds especially have NEVER delt with unemployment like this.. we lived in a comforted shell.. we are a generation based on fast communication, and I hope it can culminate in the creation or support of a 3rd party, even if it's just to spite the reigning powers. But who knows how this generation will react to the constant intrusion of the Government, to many variables exist to say just exactly what will happen.

reply to post by Spartak_FL


Very vivid. You called it a story; it was more like a historical documentary!

The economic and financial elements give us a lot to get our teeth into. (I think we're a bit safer in that territory than predicting how any civil unrest could pan out. I'm still hopeful that any in any major economic upheaval that might occur decent people will exercise restraint, preferring constructive debate and dialogue to outright confrontation.)

There is no doubt that if unemployment continues at the current rate you have to ask what the outcome will be. I suspect your specific expectation that things would level off by 2012/13 is optimistic. It would be very interesting to hear how you (or anyone else) thinks the economy could be rebuilt. Are we talking massive investment in capital expenditure - national infrastructure, investment in science & R&D, etc.? How likely is the oft-quoted scenario that military expenditure will continue to skyrocket? (I can see a scenario where it would have to be massively cut back.)

Then you come to inflation. Crunch time indeed if it happens on that scale!

On a national scale the same solutions as those just quoted above have potential I guess. Some kind of production is needed to build an economy. (Or am I wrong?)

Society breaking down may not be the only possible scenario. A massive increase in self-reliance (as opposed to reliance on state hand-outs), coupled with communities starting to pull together is another.

Hardship on an unimaginable scale certainly looks realistic either way.



reply to post by Rockuck


I agree we may be seeing something far bigger than a cyclical blip.

We will end up like the British Empire, slowly contracting and withdrawing from the World Stage, no longer being the centerpiece of the World as far as economic and military powers. In all likelihood China would assume our position... This would be the preferable way to go.. with our manufacturing base destroyed and our main source of GDP consumer spending, we could collapse entirely, or we could down size and re-adjust our way of life. This would obviously mean political and economic changes, but far less severe then option 2.

That sounds eminently sensible. Feed & clothe the people through investment at home and via foreign trade. I fail to see why that should not be the goal for any government, especially as it is as plain as could be that endless economic growth is an impossibility. Stability should surely be the name of the game - the genuine goal of good government.

A very rapid collapse, as in your second scenario, is surely not as inevitable as is often assumed. It has to be conceded that many nations could actually face such a situation by the end of the year.

So what would precipitate either scenario? What would be happening in the markets? At what levels would scenario 1 remain a possibility, and when would scenario 2 look unavoidable?

I know I'm asking a lot, but perhaps a few folks could have a go. It would be fascinating to see people draw their knowledge together to try and come up with some fairly specific models of what would be in (or behind) the headlines.

Spartak mentioned China's possible refusal to continue buying US treasuries. What other massive indicators would there be, and at what levels would they go from a critical state to an avalanche?

I certainly agree with you that we can't predict exactly what might happen. But I dare say we might get fairly close.

And one last brain-teaser: it looks increasingly like the predictions of moves towards a world currency were well-founded. It may well be that a major collapse would prove convenient to such a goal. What would be a better alternative in the aftermath of a meltdown?

Had an idea so bear with me
will post more later

reply to post by pause4thought

PS. Star for using the word "copius", it spices up any conversation.

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[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/509555106855.png[/atsimg]
In this issue

1. ... Pandemic
   
2. ... Lights Out!
   
3. ... Big Jim's Surefire Survival Tips presents: Leather, it'll do in a pinch
   
4. ... Invaders from Outer Space
   

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9138a133b396.png[/atsimg]

Day 5 - Lost at Sea
I awaken drenched in sweat from another nightmare to the glowing rays of the morning sun.

After the outbreak hit NY 5 days ago, panic spread resulting in a complete meltdown of the population.
Riots and chaos ensued as people faught each other to escape the cities as fast as possible.

This just made things worse.

All the roads out of town where blocked resulting in a fish tank effect.

I was lucky but everyone I know or knew is now dead or dying.
Did the doctors know the virus was in the vaccine shots and that they where spreading the virus instead of helping stop it?

I wish I had planned better and take a boat with a motor but that's life I guess.
Will I find survivors or be rescued or will I die in this boat first?

The End.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e8a391820788.png[/atsimg]

Sunday July X 20XX
Dear diary,
The gangs are threatning to cut off our electricity again if we don't pay up.
How can we pay their rediculous demands, our gardens barely produce enough food for our family.

The Dixson's across the street were over again last night begging for food. I said we were starving and had none for anyone.
Those beasts, I'll never forgive them for what they did to poor Ms Janets their elderly neighbor. And for what? All they got were a few tins of food.

Tomorrow we are going to try sneaking out of town to somewhere safer. Pipe dream perhaps but this place is going to the dumps fast and we need to get out before things get worse.

Someone just threw a brick throuh the window, better go investigate

*/ Catch next week episode at the same time next week /%

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c7b9819abe2d.png[/atsimg]

Hey Folks Big Jim here with another tasty tip if your ever up a creek without one o' dem der padles.
Find yourself some leather. It's in shoes, couches, all kinds a things.
Boil the leather for 40 minutes. Let it cool a bit, slice it real small and enjoy!


See you next week with: How to cook roadkill like a pro

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f50c02d25765.png[/atsimg]

Ever feel lost? I feel lost. Empty. But most of all. Betrayed.

Today I found out little green men are real. They aren't green but they do come from space.
Matter of fact I'm glad I only saw them on TV. I figure I'd faint if I ever saw one in real life.

My mind has been realing all day. All those years of faith and worship for nothing. It's all a lie.
I can't believe they expect us to believe they created us as an experiment. It can't be true.
Can it?

Well damn them. I'm goning to make them pay! Several cities have already started revolting against these creatures.


/* catch episode 2 coming soon to a galaxy near you */

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[edit on 10-7-2009 by warrenb]

reply to post by pause4thought

What would be happening in the markets?

Per Scenario 2 the collapse already happened. It happened in October of 2008, if you see any Stats from the official pages of the Federal Reserve (Warrenb posted a few of them in your market thread) .. the entire system literally ground to a halt.. dropped off a cliff type deal. If it were not for the extreme measures taken, that would have been the last days of the American Empire. Perhaps the only thing that saved us was that the entire World collapsed so fast, so far that they actually fell past us.. leaving us in an economic advantage even in a considerably weakened state. If we experience another constriction of Credit the likes we saw in October of 08, you can be sure that will be just another signal for the end of things.

At what levels would scenario 1 remain a possibility, and when would scenario 2 look unavoidable?

God I cannot believe I am going to say this........

If the Government continues it's efforts it's highly likely that we will see Scenario One playout in the end.. that's not to say there will not be a few decades of stagnation, deflation and effectively a "winding down" period.. Push comes to shove, if America is the largest economy on the planet, and 70% of our economy is Consumer Spending, and we only have 300million citizens... wtf will happen to China? Their Middle Class is set to outpace us, and with over a billion consumers, their internal circulation of wealth alone will eventually dwarf the entire World. The Government has done a good job at preventing a complete and total financial collapse .. narrowly avoided it as a matter of fact.

When the government says all is fine, it's usually not fine at all.. if they say we are doomed and screwed like past October.. you can only imagine how close to the brink we really were.

If America looses it's role as World Reserve Currency, the American Empire will cease to exist literally overnight. It's the only thing we produce.

I personally cannot imagine America falling behind to another Nation as far as economic power is concerned... I my self would be more than willing to enlist in the defense of our livelihoods.. Eventually China will break away from it's relationship with us, as all Industrial Nations must become Post Industrial, China will eventually take on our own model of economic growth in this sense. Whether or not they will ever have the resources or the nerve to engage us in war over the matter, I certainly would prefer our people not go down without a fight.. Most declining Super Powers went through a series of horrific wars before their final collapse.

Wish I could be more specific for you.

I see the Balkanization of the US happening very naturally along cultural and philosophical lines...Much like Rock's Scenario #2...

This happens as a result of the continuing deterioration of our economy, and it becomes quite obvious (through alternative media) that the Federal Government has actually first CREATED then WORSENED our plight by protecting the Bankster class over the welfare of of its' citizens....

Once this is uncovered and realized , it creates a MASS movement of anti-government and anti-establishment rage that will only be quenched with the fall of centralized power..there will be a feeble attempt to hold on to this power, and for a time, we will be embroiled in a civil war...(UNLESS while the PTB still retains power, they pull the WAR card, which may delay the civil war for a time...read below)

Like minded states form regions (current legal borders will change somewhat) and after the central government is defeated ( and escapes to Paraguay) these regions, after possibly fighting each other, will eventually resume relations somewhat like the covenant between the original thirteen colonies..and they will prosper, although at a much more sustainable scale....

This will reignite the passion for personal liberty world wide, and China, India, and the Middle East whose economies were crushed during the depression, faces revolutions of their own...

Of course, the wild card is whether the current PTB clearly senses that their time is about to expire, and they head straight for the old standby...world war.....If this happens, it's anyone's' guess how the scenario pans out...we may see foreign intervention on US soil...

Edit to add: Read whatDmitri Orlov thinks we are headed toward....he saw the break up of the soviet union first hand and thinks we will fare much worse...


[edit on 10-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

[edit on 10-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

[edit on 10-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

There is a sociology experiment that was once performed with rats by farmboys : place three rats in a barrel, wait a week and observe. You will find two skeletons and a mummy...
Resources and populations is always the bottom line, I think.

Almost all scenarios are awful by modern standards - if not hellish.

Soon, we will see if there are in fact TPTB - because, if there are, they will have to act. Their action will almost certainly involve genocidal mayhem and massive population reduction. This is only IMHO... and , darn it - I'm usually a pretty upbeat person !

Why ? In the words of Leonard Cohen... ' everybody knows ' . Everybody knows that the ship is sinking and everybody knows that the captain lied.

Somebody better do something quick , or it's torches and pitchforks, Dr. Frankenstien... and what can now be done with a completely false economy ?

So , if they TPTB exsist - we'll know soon enough.

My scenario would not be surprising to any member of ATS, I should think : Economic events spell disaster not only for the masses, but also for the money managers and politicians ( see torches and pitchforks above ) .
Just as it seems about to explode ( civil war scenarios , revolution ) , massive disease causes everybody who is not dead to not want to be.To do anything for anyone who offers hope. In the ensuing madness of mob mass murder and epidemic... everyone forgets about the evil Count in the dark castle.

Repeat.

[edit on 10-7-2009 by Skelkie3]

[edit on 10-7-2009 by Skelkie3]

Tent cities, ghost malls, tax riots, oh my! The man the NY Times called a purveyor of "pesssimism porn," Gerald Celante shows us where we are headed. Celente's track record at predicting trends, from the fall of communism to the 87 market crash to the popularity of Starbucks to the dotcom flameout and now our curruent woes is impeccable, by the way. But he's never sounded this glum:

I think there is another wild card besides WWIII. The problem with WWIII is that you're going to escalate into mutually assured destruction and I really don't think TPTB want that. Too messy.

Here's the other wild card...

some toys will come out of the secret toy box in order to restart a manufacturing base in the economy... what do I mean by that? Well, I suspect there are some major scientific advances under wraps in skunk work labs like Sandia, Los Alamos, and so forth that have been kept secret from commercialization and public use. Obama's team could be meeting with some of these Area 51 type scientists and deciding what can be rolled out and how it could revitalize the economy.

Don't be surprised if it seems like just out of the blue we have some major breakthroughs in energy, transportation, and stuff that the rest of the world will want bad enough to pay big for it and we're the only country that can produce it. Or the entirely new and better way of doing something would be used internally in the USA to rev up the economy.

I just think they have cards they can play before resorting to WWIII or everyone starving to death. Look for some amazing new breakthroughs that will change everything. Maybe they will roll out something that will knock your socks off and the new economy will boom on this. I know, I know, the Segway was supposed to be the big thing, but I'm talking about something much more revolutionary they've perhaps perfected behind the scenes.

Look at the transistor and then the computer chip. Changed the world. We could see a world changer like one of those or even more spectacular.

The thing is, we (the USA) need something to sell to the rest of the world that will make us rich all over again. Oversimplification, I know, but that's basically the problem. I remember a funny line from Jesse Jackson speaking at the Dem convention years ago... "We're too busy making too much of what nobody's buying!" Now, guys like Buffet are saying the same thing only a little more eloquently.

reply to post by silent thunder


They crashed his website...lol. I gotta say...

if you're looking for rainbows and lollipops....i wouldn't watch Celente!

It's going to be a grim future...hopefully we can overcome it.

reply to post by silent thunder


Very straightforward Celente, as usual. Maybe we wouldn't be contemplating armageddon scenarios if more people were willing to just tell it like it is ?

Calente says that by 2012, we will have tent cities . Does he mean LARGER tent cities ?

... by 2012 , we will have gang warfare. Does he mean MORE gang warfare, or what ?

The scenarios described here on this thread are already happening. It's just a matter of them not being as bad as some of us think , or a matter of being in the beginning stages.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/349b00673bdf.png[/atsimg]
Coming soon to a small town near you and spreading out to bigger towns and cities, everyday citizens taking action against the Corporatocracy that rules over them. Citizens who have lost loved ones to vaccines, police brutality, marauding street gangs and starvation. Citizens who have woken up from their dream state to face the ugly truth's of reality.

These people realize that life is worth more than money or gold. That the distractions and diversions pushed on the masses are contrived to create an illusion of freedom and personal choice.

These citizens realize they are now enemies of the state, rebel insurgents.

They start by trying to wake others from their slumber. Taking small actions against the state. Graffiting or breaking windows of banks and conglomerates. These actions slowly become larger as people start banding together. The police state enacts curfews and patrols entire city blocks to protect the interests of the few against the many.

Citizens stop buying goods and services in retaliation and the economy quickly tumbles into a primitive barter system that benefits everyone instead of the few. They relinquish materialism and pop culture values for a more tribal form of society that keeps everyone on the same playing field.

The people finally realize that cities are an illusion of the state; Concrete monstrosities, zoo's for humans; where everyone gets to have their own cage and straw mattress in exchange for obedience. And so, people go back to living in small communities that rely on the land to provide for them.

All science and research is continued but instead of labs working against each other, now they all work together to solve problems faster. There are no huge salaries. The reward is in the personal achievement and pride one gets from a job well done, something that had been forgotten.

Meanwhile the corporations hide in distant nations, plotting their future wars and conquests. Hiding in their lavish mountain top compounds built on the toil and blood of others. And so the eternal cycle continues until the globe stops placing value and worth on material and mineral goods before those of their fellow man.



Oh and here's a great site about end-of-world scenarios
www.exitmundi.nl...

And one with an extensive list of apocalyptic movies/books
www.quietearth.us...
for those rainy days





[edit on 11-7-2009 by warrenb]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I think you said it best with "balkanization" Roland. I would say its not improbable for such an event to happen. While as I said with our communication abilities and net work of media the differences between states are very subtle. However while individual states may not be as different as euro states are to eachother, our regions are.

We have the south, from texas to the northern edges of kentuky/virginia

The south west, the corner states and cali

The northwest, which is just as full of its own personalities as the south is

The mid west and plains

New england, the original bloc of the country.

Of course it could also divide even further, but I think it interesting that each of these regions even votes alike, architecture is often the same, length of histories, etc.

Our federal, centralized government could very well prevent general insurrection with ease, but wide scale governing chaos from state capitals is entirely different... as the economy gets worse, competition for jobs, corporations, revenue, and federal assistance will create a lot of tension between states.

Ultimately the outcome is directly linked to the length the depression lasts.

Ps. Its great to see the best minds on ats in this thread, reading the replies and getting the "average" idea of what we think is going to happen is fascinating

yeah...shocker!!!...on FOX NEWS....someone says that obama's policies are failing. yup....and after 5 months in office!!!! ....it's a good thing that the republicans had nothing to do with this...hey...i know!...just have the republican politicians say NO to everything...oh yeah, they've been doing that for 5 months
or...the republicans can be patriotic and actually try and help regular people, get jobs, and health care, and...and... HAHAHA..oh who am i kidding...they want the president of the united states and congress to fail.

Originally posted by jimmyx
yeah...shocker!!!...on FOX NEWS....someone says that obama's policies are failing. yup....and after 5 months in office!!!! ....it's a good thing that the republicans had nothing to do with this...hey...i know!...just have the republican politicians say NO to everything...oh yeah, they've been doing that for 5 months
or...the republicans can be patriotic and actually try and help regular people, get jobs, and health care, and...and... HAHAHA..oh who am i kidding...they want the president of the united states and congress to fail.

Jimmyx.....

What we're discussing here transcends your perceived notions of our inbred political system...I think most of us would acknowledge that ALL politicians had a hand in bringing us to this stage...and they did it for power and money...pretty simple, actually...

Take a deep breath and absorb a little truth, it'll hurt a little at first, and you might even lose some friends over it, but you'll soon realize how brainwashed you actually were....and most importantly, why.

By the way, there are rumors that there is a major war going on now in space over control of this planet, as reported by Ed Grimsley and his state-of-the-art night vision binoculars on C2C.

Yeah, I know it is far fetched. But think how it would be if WWIII doesn't even take place on the surface of the Earth. Let's imagine that opposing NWO factions battle it out in space and then after they duke it out unbeknownst to us mortals, whomever wins WWIII descends down in a manmade UFO and proclaims victory and tells us what to do.

Bizarre, yes. Out of the realm of possibilities, no.

A lot of people seriously believe that manned space exploration did not end with the Apollo missions, but went into ultra-secret mode. Jim Marrs, Hoagland and others think that there has been a very advanced manned space program in secret that perhaps has manned bases established throughout our solar system right now. It could be that other countries are involved, too but if this secret space program does exist, I think it would be militarized.

Don't know where I'm going with this, but you know, the mind wanders. Did they really need the emergency bailout trillions to prop up banks or was the money siphoned off into black ops? Just posing the question.

After having scratched my head on this for a bit , I feel somewhat overwhelmed with a sense of confusion. The truth is - I don't know enough about psychology to make reasonable predictions of the BIG picture...

While I feel observant enough to see around the next bend... the long term appears in the hands of absolute maniacs who may act in completely unimaginable ways. Unimaginable for myself , anyway.

Hell , they MAY be warring in outer space ( in their minds or otherwise ) for all I know...

On a personal note. I've had a couple of different viewpoints on
' survivalism ' over the years ; I thought it would be great to ' survive ' , and I 've thought I could not care less. Now - I feel very gratified in a selfish sort of way to be here NOW. I only want to ' survive ' for the big show... the dark ages I'll leave for others, thank you.

[edit on 12-7-2009 by Skelkie3]

Originally posted by silent thunder
Tent cities, ghost malls, tax riots, oh my! The man the NY Times called a purveyor of "pesssimism porn," Gerald Celante shows us where we are headed.

I believe Pause asked the ATS members for a scenario regarding the future economic development; he didn't ask to present an opinion of the likes of Gerald Celente who toss economic and political armageddons to draw attention to themselves in order to prop up their limping careers.

I tried for several minutes to come up with a BEST case scenario ....it is not that easy to see how this could play out to the best

but that will not stop it from playing out

I think a big key will be what happens with the Commercial Real estate loans and how succesful banks are at extending the maturity's of alot of these.....this will factor into the "ghost malls" and consumer psychology and "employment picture" to a large degree .....but also it could clog banks balance sheets and cause them to constict lending further

Some type of Gov't regulated bank may need to be created to provide credit to small businesses and people who actually want to grow the private sector......either that or the fed will need to quadrouple down on some type of consumer lending vehicle that is avialable for businesses that i mentoned.......

so i see the depressionary process playing out but to varying degrees depending on several factors....lending being a primary one......other things to watch which would deal with a deeper depressionary process will be fascims creepin.....the fascism will creep faster for should there be any sort of attacks "i.e false flag" which are construed by some rogue authoritarian organization. I think people who are out of work will be the first to be considered as "domestic terrorists"......if you are productive and have a job i believe they will cut you slack..........the agin baby boomers will see their mortality rate climb.....since they are older and more retired ...the unproductive will be given lax medical attention (they will go to the back of the line)....