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What Recovery? The Dearth of Consumers and Jobs

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posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 01:58 PM
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Had to share this blog post as it is quite revealing and contradicts any sense of economic recovery simply by viewing the hard numbers.


I could hardly believe it when I saw this poll come out.


It's a testament to effective public relations that a majority of people believe that they will be better off next summer than they are right now. If perception was all that mattered then the mission of fixing the economy has already been accomplished.

Unfortunately for all of us, actual facts mean more than managing perception. Just ask Baghdad Bob.
With that in mind, let's look at those pesky inconvenient facts.

The often quoted statistic is that 70% of America's economy is consumer spending. That, in and of itself, is disturbing for reasons I will go into later on.
In the meantime, let's look at what the consumer has been up to recently.




That's not looking very rosy to me, and it's filtering directly into manufacturing.




No matter how positive the attitude of The Great American Consumer (TGAC), it doesn't make a bit of difference unless he/she has an income. So let's look at the job situation....

www.dailykos.com...

I highly encourage you to read the rest of the article. The data paints a completely different picture than that of the governments.

Now there is talk of bailout part 2 floating around. When will it stop?

I find it hilarious that the people polled about the economic outlook truly believe that by next summer everything will be better (59% believed so). Scary to see how gullible and susceptible people are to governmental lies but there you have it.





posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 02:06 PM
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That is a very impressive thread you put together. I think people just have to hang onto hope; more of them than admitted probably think deep down things are going to get worse, but you know the old adage "think positive"



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 02:14 PM
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S & F

The charts are very telling. I prefer a chart to figures any day...it gives a better representation of what's really happening over time.

I have to agree, the naivete of the masses never ceases to amaze me. To this day, in my regular conversations with neighbors and friends, I still hear "Well, the stock marked closed higher today, so the worst is over! Happy days are here again!". Moronic..... Is is that they truly don't have a grip on reality, or is it that they're are scared to death of reality, and don't want to face it?

Super research! Congrats.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 02:19 PM
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Yiiiikes! I just used the link and looked at the other charts, namely the qtr/qtr growth in household debt. That's some scary stuff.

This is what they don't want us to see.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 02:26 PM
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Good article and graphs.

I'm always weary and skeptical of Polls, especially those that are conducted only of the readership of a particular newspaper, magazine, channel, or website. (Think of how skewed of statistics you would get from a Poll on ATS!) So, upfront I'd be willing to dismiss the USA Today Poll.

However, on the other hand...the only people I personally know, even living in a state with double-digit unemployment second only to Michigan, that are unemployed are unemployed by choice because they are living in the backwoods waiting for SHTF. The rest of us aren't spending but we are have been rebuilding our Savings, stockpiling necessities (if our two unemployed friends are right about SHTF), and waiting to see how things pan out.

Personally, after saving for the past year, I'm ready to go out and buy a brand new car at a killer deal and pay entirely in cash. Depending on how good of a deal I get, I'm going to follow that purchase up with a new DSLR, lots of L-Glass Lenses for it, a new iPhone, a new Computer, a new Laptop, and a new LED LCD TV. I'm looking at plunking down 3-5 years worth of spending in a single month (maybe in a single week)!

Everyone I know, despite the economy, despite the unemployment has been doing the same. After amassing enough Savings to survive unemployment for 6-12 months without Unemployment Insurance, they are making plans to buy those big ticket items, holding out until the deals hit rock bottom, and timing them either with Back To School or an early Christmas.

We sometimes forget that the majority of our Economy is no longer based on our GNP, or a Gold Standard, or any tangible measurement. The US Economy has been almost entirely based on Consumer Confidence entirely. If people spend and do their roles as happy Consumers, then that will boost the Economy.

Which gets one thinking...if we spent the bail-out money on the people in the U.S. instead of on the Financial/Banking/Auto Industries, we could have put $2500 in Cash in each person's hand (or $12,500 per average household). As people would invariably use that money to pay off Loans and Credit Card balances, or towards the purchase of new automobiles, it would have had the same effect as bailing out the Financial/Banking/Auto Industries, but in reverse, with a much more profound impact upon improving our economy, rather than the way the bail out had been implemented, which not many people have seen that stimulus trickle-down to them yet, let alone to the tune of $12,500 per average household.

Don't underestimate Consumer Confidence in the Economy. Our modern Economy is built on it.

However, I agree that Stimulus Bail Out Package Part Deux is not going to help do anything but put our country further in debt, thereby raising inflation, and shattering Consumer Confidence, unless it is implemented as a Stimulus directly to the people.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 02:38 PM
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Any here like me who have not worked for 10 years, knows what its like to not have a job that long, to do to people. Living on dole, is no life, so at least americans will be seeing what they have done to so many other countries in there lifes.

I wonder how many that have lost there job will never see another job, like the position i have been placed in.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 02:54 PM
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reply to post by warrenb
 


Thanks for the charts warren.

What do i see in the gallup poll? Hope.

Hope can be a horrible thing...as it makes people idle. I "hope" things will get better as well....but I know it won't.

The people in this country will wait till it's absolutely terrible in the economy before they will get very loud. The nation is still split and will remain that way until it gets worse.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 04:10 PM
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The stock market was driven artificially high to begin with. The stimulus was not a stimulus..it was a spending bill. We have an inexperienced president. Most in congress only care to line their pockets with money. Unless there is a movement in America that ousts the corrupt and inexperienced and puts real leaders in their places...the common folk have lost.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 04:18 PM
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Nicely done warren!
S&F for you buddy!

The sheeple are led to believe that they are headed toward where the grass is greener while they are, in fact, being led to slaughter.

If they knew the reality of their fate then those polls would look very, VERY different.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 08:03 PM
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It doesn't take a genius with an economics degree to see that things are NOT going to get better. I think many don't want to believe what could happen, or are only paying attention to the media saying everything is okay (although lately i've been seeing less and less of the later). Just to think, 10 years ago we (the U.S.) was "the top of the world", and now, we seem to be bringing the whole world down with us. Thinking positive is all well and good, but it isn't realistic.



posted on Jul, 9 2009 @ 09:27 PM
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My view would be warped as well because we had growth last year and similar growth is occurring this year. Housing market is fine and prices held steady or went up on them.

Peoples view reflect their experiences. My income dropped slightly in my business and I panicked a bit but it came right back up when the businesses realized they were doing just fine.

The glass is half empty crowd will always see the doom and gloom and never consider that the majority of Americans still have their jobs at the same pay or more but are sitting on their money due to fear. Me included.

I've cut back on spending but did not need to. ATS is partly responsible for that and the out of control government spending has me expecting a repeat of the aftermath of Carter.

Thanks for the charts but I think the facts about spending is deceptive because fear is making people who suffered not at all stop spending. That must be factored in.



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 03:05 AM
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reply to post by Bombeni
 

I think the think positive crowd needs to expand their reading list.

$134 Billion in US bonds being dumped by japan were real

US embassies told to get ONE YEARS worth of local currency for coming banking shutdown

Exceprt:

In its current issue, HSL reports rumors that "Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days."

With that coming down the pike, I think the pied piper is on the way.

I think the trigger even may be auditing the fed, or other countries
seeing what japan is doing and a fire sale takes place.

Either way, prepare accordingly...

Good Luck to you all !


[edit on 10-7-2009 by Ex_MislTech]



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 04:22 AM
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This is TOTALLY what we Americans deserve and get.

I have a hard time having sympathy for my country, considering it is the land of opportunity. Baby boomers and generation X have had a million and one opportunities to make change, and be proactive.

Opportunities to rally around workers whose jobs were being shipped overseas, and realize how much this effected them personally. They all went right on supporting all the companies that did this though. They voted with our dollars, against our own country and fellow countrymen - time and again.

Opportunities to secure US borders and ensure jobs for future generations of citizens.

Opportunities to lead the way in clean, renewable energy and industry.

Opportunities to be a nation of healthy, responsible people who require very little health care that is due to self neglect/abuse.

Opportunities to only eat and buy what they need, instead of becoming a nation of gluttons with little to no self control.

Opportunities to save money for their future, to do without what they want today to ensure their ability to have what they need tomorrow.

Instead they are consistently reactionary, and only when it is too late.

Go back to watching tv, it'll all be over soon enough. The country you've left to my generation and younger is poisoned, wasted, depleted, broken and broke filth, I REALLY HOPE YOU ARE ALL PROUD OF YOURSELVES!


edit:

It seems like everyone on ATS always wants to blame everything on the US government.

Everyone needs to wake up and realize the fat, ignorant, selfish and pitiful baby boomers and their apathetic spawn are fully to blame.

They are like vampires, chugging along on heart meds, prozac, and erection pills - consuming, and consuming, and then consuming some more.

Anything and everything that was ever great about this country was accomplished by men and women long dead...

[edit on 10-7-2009 by maus80]



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 04:51 AM
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reply to post by maus80
 


Not just the Americans, many have strayed there, the whole "American Dream" thing.. it has spread far and wide, that idea that self worth is based on wealth, and if you don't have wealth you have credit which is just as good mentality.

I don't have credit, I don't have a mortgage, I don't have credit cards, I don't have any debt, I don't eat fast food, I don't binge drink and yet I still manage to enjoy my life to it's fullest and I do it on modest salary working about 35 hours per week ( Why work more? Life is for living, not working!)

As a society we are obssesed with success and for our society success is either money or fame - How sad is that?



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 06:20 AM
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Like possession....
Perception is 9/10ths of the law. If people believe things are getting better, they will.

All as you need is for the MSM to pump the "everythings going to be alright" mumbo jumbo it into a few million households and BAM!.. economic recovery!

Sorry for being so cynical.. just my mood these days



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 06:38 AM
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On the very first day of Intro To Business Law Class back in '92, our teacher told us the following:
"If any of you have any intelligence at all, you will listen to what I'm about to tell you, remember what I am going to tell you, and practice what I am going to tell you. Always pay cash. Never buy a brand new vehicle - buy a leftover or one with less than 3,000 miles on it when buying from a dealer. Never borrow more than you can earn in a year if you must borrow. Make at least double payments when you can. Create a corporation and have it own all of your assets."
I have no credit cards, I have no debt. When I want something, I save for it and pay cash. My schedule is my shedule. I almost always have what I need. Lately, I'm finding that a lot of businesses don't like people paying cash. Even charging penalties if you don't use a credit card.



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 07:08 AM
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Sometimes, people refuse to see something even when it's staring them in the face. I have a postiive attitude. I'm positive we're in deep du-du. The whole economy is being held up by media spin from a couple up days by the market. There is NO good news out there folks. We are getting ready to fall off a cliff, that will take a long time to climb back up. An intelligent grade school child could see the implications. it doesn't take a PHD in economics from Harvard to see what's going own. WE are toast.

We will soon have a combination of factors that will cause the wave of panic to start. What are these factors?? possibly the collapse of a couple state governments, defaulting on their debt load. Possibly the closing of a major bank. Possibly the realazation that no one wants to buy our debt as we approach a new fiscal quarter. possibly a series of Dow sell off days in a row. Possibly the un-enployment stats jumping several more percentage points than planned. Or a combination of any of these.

Folk's , when the government has nothing more than telling us that not as many hundreds of thousands applied for unemployment benefits from the previous month, we are in serious trouble. If there is any good news, somebody tell me. How long can the charade continue. We are getting close to the tipping point. it can't be far away. I think it will be very fast, and very brutal. Our lives will be changed in one day, for the rest of our lives. Look for it. You have benn warned.



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 07:08 AM
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Originally posted by serendipitynow
Create a corporation and have it own all of your assets."


Something I've been thinking of doing for years. IMHO a fantastic idea that everyone should do.




posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 08:00 AM
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As more and more jobs are shipped oversea, the nation is starting to turn into a nation that can only offer jobs at a lower pay rate, creating a wider sector in the working poor, now the working poor is expanding to include educated and skilled workers that have to chose menial work for economic reasons.

Lowering the standards of living in the nation and with not hopes of seen any of their higher pay jobs coming back any time soon.

So no, is not going to be a better economy next year than we have today.

Because you will have to hold two or three jobs to make up for the lost of one good paying one.

Sad but that is what is going on and as long as Americas companies keep outsourcing is not going to be any economic turn for the working class in the nation.

But it seems that until this day our own for the people government doesn't give a crap.

Obama is now promoting his health care reform as the key to save the economy.

Yes but where are the jobs? Mr. Obama.

Nobody in government is addressing the fact that our wealth builders the industrial base that help shape the America of the last 40 years after the wars is gone along with the middle class jobs of the working class.



posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 08:17 AM
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Good find on those graphs man. It's like, nobody is looking over the rail to see the ship is sinking. A few do, but most don't care, and now all this talk of stimulus part 2.


My girlfriend, for the first time since we met 5 years ago, is now able to get a parking spot with no problem at her train station, because so less people catching that train to work in the morning.

I also lost a lot of business since about the beginning of this year, not making it anywhere near what i have been for the last 7 years. This year, it just dropped like a ton of bricks.

All this starting about right around xmas-newyears.

And so far no sign of improvements on my little barometers here. Just thought i'd share from my little universe here in NY/Long Island area.



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