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Originally posted by apacheman
One thing I'm pretty sure of is that the mortality rate is going to be a lot higher than the 0.43% forecast.
Remember these are using mortality numbers that are most likely under-reported. Factor in economic and medical collapse, and I'm not sure I want to know the number. Add in secondary effects and this could be unimaginably bad.
The 1918 flu pandemic (Spanish flu pandemic) was truly global, spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. The unusually severe disease killed between 2 and 20% of those infected, as opposed to the more usual flu epidemic mortality rate of 0.1%. Another unusual feature of this pandemic was that it mostly killed young adults, with 99% of pandemic influenza deaths occurring in people under 65, and more than half in young adults 20 to 40 years old. This is unusual since influenza is normally most deadly to the very young (under age 2) and the very old (over age 70). The total mortality of the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but it is estimated that 2.5% to 5% of the world's population was killed. As many as 25 million may have been killed in the first 25 weeks; in contrast, HIV/AIDS has killed 25 million in its first 25 years.
Anne Schuchat, Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC told a news briefing.
"Reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg," she said of the roughly 287,000 confirmed cases of (A)H1N1 flu in the United States