I am recovering from successful surgery to remove a brain tumour. I was asked by a couple of cancer organisations to help with their surveys as all information helps the wider picture. I was pleased to help. Naturally they asked me about lifestyle, work and so on. Then the questions became more specific. The focus was on mobile phones. It seems when they first emerged they were analogue and quite powerful as there were far fewer base stations to reach. Five years later brain tumours were on the up. Then came digital and with more base stations the handsets didn't need the power, brain tumours levelled out. Then the masses acquired very small handsets which again need to be more powerful combined with almost all teenagers having them. Five years on brain tumours are well up. While not conclusive the evidence is strong enough for a serious investigation.

Mobile phone industry close to trillion dollar baby

(Free-Press-Release.com) March 12, 2008 --
The growth in use of cell phones is dramatic. The worldwide mobile phone industry
will be worth US$1 trillion by the close of 2008, a new report from Portio Research confidently predicts. In the report, the astounding statistics reveals the mobile phone industry is at the top of the pecking order in terms of sustained growth, surpassing other market sectors such as IT and Pharmaceuticals.

In the unrelenting growth of mobile industry, one of the most encouraging trends is the number of mobile subscribers worldwide. And it is estimated that cell phone users will increase from 3.1 billion at the end of 2007 to 5 billion by 2012. All non-voice Value Added Services (VAS) continue to grow with forecasts showing the worldwide market for non-voice services to be worth US$250 billion by 2012.

For handset manufacturers, there is also good news whose market continues to grow year-on-year with total handset shipments surpassing 1 billion units for the first time in 2007. There are significant trends at both ends. At the high-end consumer tastes are changing and mobile subscribers have realised that their handsets can do much more than send messages or make phone calls. For example by October 2007 there were almost 6.8 million mobile video viewers in the US alone. The number of mobile TV subscribers is predicted to be 488.8 million by the end of 2010.

However, at the low end, the recent focus on ultra-low cost handsets for poor rural markets has been great news for subscribers and the operators of these fledging networks, but has driven down the worldwide average handset selling price.

But, despite the massive growth in the technology, the network operators are not making massive profits. Vodafone reported losses of £6.2 billion in 2003, 9 billion in 2004 and 7.5 billion in 2005, and described 2005 as a 'year of achievement'! Given that the figure for 2002 was £13.6 billion, one can see where they are coming from! Other providers such as Orange and O2 are similarly not basking in massive profits.

The reasons for the lack of profits are the cost of buying 3rd generation licences (£22 billion collectively), the product life cycle - existing phones are at the 'saturation' stage, the huge cost of developing the networks in the first instance, and the degree of competition in the market - despite the alleged accusations of 'collusion'.
However, the situation of the mobile market is not static because technology moves very fast and what is useful today becomes obsolete tomorrow.