After numerous discussions with family and friends about just how realistic the gloomy unemployment figures were, I endeavored to research them myself
and see for sure. I am no statistician, and I ask my fellow ATSers to review what I present here, and let me know if I am on track or not.
According to the Associated Press, 467K jobs were lost in June, and the unemployment rate is 9.5 percent
Link to article
First I got the baseline for the total workforce. I retrieved the civilian labor force level (LNS11000000) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In
June, BLS says there were 154,926,000 people in the labor force.
Next, I got the count of unemployed less than 5 weeks from BLS (LNS13008396). The count was 3,204,000.
Next, I got the count of unemployed for 5-14 weeks from BLS (LNS13008756). The count was 4,066,000.
Next, I got the count of unemployed 15 weeks or more from BLS (LNS13008516). The count was 7,833,000.
If you add all those counts up you get total unemployed = 15,103,000
15,103,000:154,926,000 = 9.75% NOT 9.5% as reported by the AP
I used the same LNS reports above to compute the total unemployed for May and that was 14,598,000
15,103,000 - 14,598,000 = 505,000 jobs lost from May to June, NOT 497,000 as reported by the AP.
So what's the deal-eo here? The AP can't read simple reports like I did? Or are they shaving the results, so things don't look so bad? A
combination of both?
You be the judge... Hope this was helpful to those that are interested.
BTW the link to the BLS reports is BLS Link