Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
No offense, but I find that sort of attitude as being a bit naive, and simply underestimating an enemy just because of some past failures.
Underestimating enemies in the history of mankind has cost many nations the lives of many people, and even their entire civilization.
Underestimating an enemy is always dangerous. More so when such an enemy is as crazy as Kim, and has the help of other countries, such as Russia, and
China, which are "enemies", and not friends like they claim of the U.S.
Well, actually, I do take offense at someone being presumptuous and implying that I am a simpleton. The conclusions I draw are based on acute personal
observation, and education. Unlike virtually all of the longstanding and fantastic theories of doom present here and elsewhere, my "naive" judgment,
is proven true by each day that passes.
So allow me to elaborate, as a my previous post apparently did not seem to stimulate the process of thought I intended.
North Korea will not launch a missile toward any U.S. territory with an intent to cause damage and start a conflict. It takes roughly a week to
assemble a missile, and there are only two such facilities in the entire county. Depending on what delivery method the DoD deems ideal, the response
time ranges from several minutes, to several hours. As such, the North Korean military knows that their ability to project power is fragile. Within a
few days they would be confined only to the Korean Peninsula, and only then mainly on land. Despite the collateral damage and human loss, a North
Korean defeat is inevitable.
If we are to believe the reasoning of the North, they are firing these missiles to guard against U.S. aggression. But in reality it makes no
difference if such missiles were fired or kept in storage.
The United States presently has sufficient capability to guard against the North Korean missile threat scenario, with a high probably of success. Even
factoring in asymmetrical and unknown variables, a worst case scenario is one which the U.S. can absorb and recover from quickly. South Korea too
would prevail and recover, albeit more slowly as it will suffer greater loss as a country. So
IF the United States & South Korea were hell-bent
on a preemptive attack, the missile threat would not be deemed a critical deterrent. It is abundantly clear that both countries have no intentions of
such a thing. This is clear at both a fundamental level, and at a tactical one.
As such, these actions by North Korea are nothing but a desperate act to gain clout in discussion engagements with some of the very countries deemed
enemies. Overall they want to gain consideration, concessions, and even aid. At a fundamental level "we" want them to cease such activity because
it causes disturbance in the international scene, and international life. This very thread, these very speculations, protests, both personal and
diplomatic, etc... These are not welcomed occurrence among the halls of powers, it is a nuisance. At a more strategic level there is the possibility
of military miscalculation, accidental tragedy, shifting military balances, arms races, alliances, a negative change among regional policy, etc…
These too are possible unwelcome development, which can result from such North Korean behavior.
So, yes, I sleep very peacefully at night.
But by all means, lets hazard a guess and even run computer simulations without proper perspective in the results.
[edit on 2-7-2009 by WestPoint23]