Where are all the alien civilizations ?

Try to count to a million (go on, you can do it... there are 1 million seconds in 11 and a half days). Now imagine doing it twice, that's just 2 million.

The famous extinction event that decimated the dinos happened 65 million years ago, they had been around for 250 million years before that. The Earth is about 4 and a half billion years old (4,500,000,000). The Earth had to be around for that long before we (man) came along and started building stuff. That was only 10 to 15 thousand years ago (15,000).
There are trillions of stars in our Galaxy (1 trillion = 1,000,000,000,000) and our Galaxy has been around for about 12 and a half billion years.

My worry is that we have missed our nearest extraterrestrial neighbours by millions, maybe billions of years. In fact, what would be the chances, given the number of stars and the time span, of a technological society appearing at the same time as our own and us actually finding them (or them finding us)?

And yet... I can't help be slightly, quietly, almost secretly optimistic... and even wonder about UFOs and related conspiracies. The odds are against any form of interaction between our civilisation and one base on another planet, they against it to such a magnitude that I can't put it into words even in my own mind. But... it is possible.

[edit on 4/7/2009 by Recouper]

reply to post by afoolbyanyothername


How about this possible thought: that we've been picking up radio signals for years-- but the government for some reasons known only to themselves chose to suppressed this information from the public? Hmmm?

I believe they have all become 'virtualized'. They reached a technical level which allowed for the creation of a matrix, a prefect virtual world, where they then transferred their consciousness to it. So, all that is left of their race is likely a self powered cube buried deep in a planets surface constructed in a way that it can last for millions of years.. inside this cube is a full blown civilisation.

It's very simple. There are almost an infinite number of factors that will go against the formation of an alien civilization. It's not quite as simple as a Drake equation.

The fact is, it is more of a leap of faith to believe in alien civilizations than it is to believe in anything in the world. The fact is, we are a very special case and we really shouldn't be on this planet. The odds Earth beat to be able to host life is staggering.

If you seriously sit there and ponder "why", you aren't grasping the reality of the situation. The more you look into the possibility, the more the chances get infinitely smaller that life can exist elsewhere.

They haven't found any alien civilizations because they don't exist. UFO's and aliens here on earth? Statistically speaking, you'd be all better off calling them demons and angels.

[edit on 29-7-2009 by metro]

reply to post by metro

I don't really know for sure, but I think you may be both right and wrong here. I know how much of an incredible and improbable marvel it is that so many extremely unlikely coincidences lined up to allow life to occur. And then how many different evolutionary branches came and went over hundreds of millions of years before our own recognisable ancestors came about.
But I think that even such an infinitesimally small chance may occur multiple times given enough time and space. And there has been an unimaginably, ungraspable amount of time and there is and has been a truly inconceivable amount of space (or more relevantly; stars).

Great post, very interesting and thought provoking. I think that many alien civilizations like the ones supposedly that live on Venus that are "invisible" might be the case. (Forgot what thread that was). I could be way off the mark, no idea.

I think its entirely possible that a solar system as close as Vega's could have some form of life on it.

To me, the factors involved in such inquiries are so vast that no one really has the right to believe for sure either way. All we can hope for is empirical evidence based on real life experience, but that is quite short of the proof you'd need.

The possibility seems infinitesimal, but our multi-verse is so unfathomable that it occurs to me that the rate of possibility is compounded.

I sometimes think that (as I think an earlier poster mentioned), the reason there seems to be such an "emptiness" and "great silence" out there may be because once a civilization reaches a level of technology comparable to ours that the civilization very shortly afterwards becomes something that's no longer remotely recognizable as a civilization.

I know the above is not very clear ... so let me try this ...

Humans have had a civilization of sorts for in excess of 5000 years (Sumeria, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Rome, etc). For the majority of that time period, technology (as we recognize it) has been virtually non-existant. It's only in the last 200 years or so that we've made any significant progress technologically.
Think about how incredibly rapidly we as a technological society and technology users have developed since the 1st major technological leap occured with the introduction of steam power. That one simple development transformed us from an agricultural society to a mechanical society and began the complete and utter transformation of society and the planet itself.

So, for thousands of years it was basically status quo with minor improvements. Then 200 years ago around the late 1700's / early 1800's) in came steam power. From that point, it took us less than 100 years to discover electricity ... it's now approx 1900.
Around the same time (late 1800's) came the 1st experiments in flight and in less than 50 years after those 1st tentative flights, we became a society that took global air travel for granted ... it's now around 1940 - 1950.
The 1st serious rocketry experiments began to take shape in the 1930's and in less than 30 years (late '60's), we had gone from no space travel capabilities to actually landing men on the moon (let's assume it happened ! )
The 30's saw the 1st experiments in nuclear energy and within 10 years we had the capability to wipe out entire cities.
The '50's saw the discovery of the genetic code and less than 30 years after that we could alter the very nature of organisms.

I could go on and on ... tv, radio, communications, lasers, satellites, internet, mobile phones, cd's, dvd's, computers, etc, etc, etc

The point I'm making (finally ... I hear you all saying !) is that in only 200 very short years, we've remade our entire world and civilization. If you picture the preceeding 5000 years of human civilization, it's basically a flat line going from left (the past) to right (the future). But just 200 years ago, that essentially flat line began to rise upwards very quickly. As each year goes by, more and more technology is being developed, more and more knowledge is being acquired that in turn results in even more technology and more changes to our world, our lives and our civilization.
This upward trend shows no sign of slowing down, in fact, estimates are that it's becoming exponential. This means that it only takes a very few short years for major changes in our technology and civilization. Extrapolating that exponential upwards curve suggests that in an incredibly short time (perhaps less than 200 more years), that civilization will no longer be even remotely recognizable by today's standards and may have needs and priorities totally alien to those of us currently alive.

This scenario may in fact be the end result of the headlong rush into a technological future and may even be a natural end result for ANY civilization that manages to achieve the minimum starting technological capability.

So, as a "human society", our remaining time may indeed be very limited
before we PERHAPS follow in the steps of other technologically advanced alien civilizations and effectively become "invisible" to other less developed technological civilizations.

Originally posted by Recouper
reply to post by metro

 

I don't really know for sure, but I think you may be both right and wrong here. I know how much of an incredible and improbable marvel it is that so many extremely unlikely coincidences lined up to allow life to occur. And then how many different evolutionary branches came and went over hundreds of millions of years before our own recognisable ancestors came about.
But I think that even such an infinitesimally small chance may occur multiple times given enough time and space. And there has been an unimaginably, ungraspable amount of time and there is and has been a truly inconceivable amount of space (or more relevantly; stars).

Here is something that I ponder a lot about. If we break down our entire existence into intense turning points of our existence, such as the asteroid crash that supposedly killed the dinosaurs or the worldwide floods, or even something simple as many volcano's that end up blocking the sun and killing all life. Let's give each and every one of those moments (and moments we do not know about yet) an incredibly generous 50/50 chance that life survives and we continue on. We would have to defy the laws of probability just to exist.

Let's get into evolution now, shall we? If life evolved from molecules and amino acids, and the basis of evolution is the passing on of information, or DNA, to the succeeding generation, then the very first instance of life would have no prior "information" on how to reproduce and would thus die out. But here we are, alive and breathing with much evidence, or traces, of evolution for us to believe this happened and that life overcame the paradox. We aren't even the most advanced species on Earth. Our senses are well below par and our physical characteristics are weak. But we have free will and intelligence! Odd, don't you think?

If you take every piece of information you gather about the incredible insurmountable odds that are against alien civilizations forming even on planets with the best conditions, the chance and probability keeps shrinking exponentially with every hurdle you add.

If you want to talk about time, we can. Because there is only a certain time frame in the development of a planet for life, as we know it, to exist. And such can be said about the universe as well. This all had to happen long after the universe settled and the dust became stars and planets and the stars imploded creating blackholes and then supermassive blackholes to form galaxies. During this minute time frame the only period that is suitable for life is the period we live in now. All of a sudden, that infinite time scale becomes a very finite number. Then you factor in all the requirements for life. Then the possibilities that if life even happened, that it could reach the development we have.

I don't think we have invented a number large enough to express just how small the possibility that life could exist in the universe, let alone be roaming around Earth in cohorts with our government!