Originally posted by Bunken Drum
I take issue with your interpretation of them.
While some of your assertions and calculations are fair, I too take issue with some of them.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
If 33% of muslims are under 16 & you're saying 1M out of 2.4M are under 19, that's 42% which strikes me as a bit high. But Only half are
female (actually 48% but lets not complicate).
If 33% of Muslims are under 16, it's actually very conservative to estimate that 42% are under
19. And saying only half are female is an
invalid point as all of my calculations took this into account already. When we say the birthrate for Pakistanis is 4.7 per female, we're saying that
it's 4.7 per couple. I believe the replacement rate is calculated at 2.1 per woman/couple and thus 4.3 is more than double the replacement rate,
whilst 1.3 is just over half.
No it's not. To say Muslims have an average of 4.3 children per couple does not equate to saying that only the youngest group has 4.3. It means that
in her entire life, that woman will still have had at least 4.3. Besides, the same age range was used for non-muslims, so it's proportionate and
that's what's key.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
ONS also puts the UK Total Fertility Rate (TFR) @1.9 children/woman so 1.9 x 9.83M projects 18.68M UK births in total.
1.9 as an average of the entire UK. That "1.9" is not ethnic specific and takes into account the 4.7 by Pakistani mothers and 3.9 by Bangladeshi
mothers. The birth rate for indigenous Britons is closer to 1.3.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
So 9.44M non-muslim women of childbearing age. If they really had a fertility rate of 1.3 kids each that would equate to: 9.44M x 1.3 = 12.27M kids.
Added to the muslim kids: 12.27M + 1.68M = 13.95M
My figures state 15M under 16s, which isn't far off from 13.95. Additionally, you're not taking into account that the birth rate of other,
non-muslim minorities is somewhere between 1.3 and 4.3. This would likely explain any discrepancy. Mothers of African and Eastern European origin, I
strongly suspect, have a birth rate significantly higher than the 1.3 by indigenous mothers, but probably a little less than the 4.3 by Muslim
mothers.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
But we've already worked out that based on the ONS TFR of 1.9 there should be a total of 18.68M kids. That's a shortfall of 4.73M or 25.32%!
Actually, as we saw above the stats project 17M kids born to 9.44M non-muslim mothers: 17M / 9.44M = 1.8 kids/non-muslim woman.
See last answer. Official statistics I showed were from 2007 whereas birthrates by ethnic group are more current.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
This correlates to the ONS TFR of 1.79 for mothers born in the UK (which includes muslims).
Exactly. Due to the number of UK-born Muslim mothers, this figure of 1.79 for both UK-born Muslim
and indigenous mothers confirms my 1.3 for
indigenous mothers.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
0.39M x 4.3 = 1.68M half female = 0.84M x 4.3 = 3.61M / 2 = 1.8M x 4.3 = 7.74 million muslims in total.
No, you didn't just calculate 7.74 million muslims total, you calculated 7.74 female muslims. And again, you can do the same to my calculations for
indigenous British mothers and arrive at the same conclusion. It's the ratio that matters, not the precise figures and the ratio is the same whether
we only count females for both, or count males and females for both.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
So in 3 generations, muslims will give birth to 57.12% of the population. But bear in mind that there'll still be plenty of the previous generations
still alive. We will not be overrun by islam.
Yes, there will be plenty of the previous generation alive but they do not represent the future. When the entirety of the previous generation have
passed on, the UK will be - by your own estimations - 57.12% Muslim, a majority.
Originally posted by Bunken Drum
True, a lot of those non-muslims will not be white anglo-saxons, but hey, this is about shari'ah not skin colour, or being Eastern-European in
origin, right?
Right.